Kevin Paffrath

Perfection in one screenshot. https://t.co/6AKkSXuI8z

I called this stupid and desperate 3 days ago. Now, Starbucks is cancelling the deal. Good.

Anthropic’s growth still cooking. Pretty impressive. A lot of different trackers, though. Ticker trends nailed OpenAI’s. Worth following. https://t.co/WO0Cch4f9j

The CEO of Amazon suggesting AI infrastructure could become a $1 trillion annual recurring revenue business for them was not on my bingo board. Really impressive. Ridiculously bullish $AMZN https://t.co/tq1UbDsB02

The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.3% Thursday and somebody asked me how to stop feeling it. My answer: two portfolios that NEVER touch. ➡️ Portfolio one is for trading. It's the small one. Day trades, options, sold puts. ➡️ Portfolio two is the 10 year portfolio. That's the real money. 😇 They shouldn't mix with each other. ➡️ The trap: buying a "long term" stock, watching it drop, and suddenly managing it like a trade. We've all done it. ➡️ And six months is NOT long term. Money needed for a house in six months is a trade, whatever it gets called. ➡️ Stocks are only a portion of net worth. All in on one name is psychologically brutal, even a name I…

I pay T-Mobile about $140 a month. They sell the SAME network under another name for $15. Half compliment, half ripoff alert. ✅ T-Mobile owns Mint Mobile. Mint runs on T-Mobile's towers. ✅ Mint's 5GB plan works out to $15 a month when you pay for a year. 😇 T-Mobile is the absolute best, like the least dead spots and the fastest service that I have ever seen anywhere. 😇 The problem is you're paying 140 bucks and most people don't need unlimited data. ➡️ I run both on the same phone. I've uploaded videos on the cheap one at the same speeds. 😇 It's the same freaking tower in the same network. ➡️ So why two brands? If the big brand sold a $1…

Gold is down 26% from its record high. Gold bugs won't like this: I think the bear market lasts 8 YEARS. ✅ Gold peaked near $5,590 an ounce in late January. Thursday: about $4,130. ✅ Two days after that peak, Trump picked Kevin Warsh to run the Fed. ➡️ Coincidence? Nope. 😇 I think that gold has an eight year bear market ahead of it and I am very bearish on it because Kevin Warsh will not want to print money in the event of a recession. ➡️ Gold is a bet that the Fed prints. This Fed is doing the exact opposite. 😇 They are focused on reducing the balance sheet, not expanding it. ✅ Meanwhile the 10-year Treasury pays over 5%. Gold pays you N…

Texas just hit PAUSE on data centers. 474 gigawatts are waiting in line for power. The most Texas has ever used at once: 91. LOL. ✅ BofA: Texas has a 474 GW line of requests to plug into the grid. About 90% is data centers. ✅ That's more than 5 times the grid's all-time record. ✅ The state paused its big grid study, stopped approving hookups of 75 MW or more, and ordered a halt to all data center permits. ✅ Not just Texas. Pause or moratorium proposals show up in 20 of this year's 36 governor races. ➡️ Sounds like a disaster for AI, right? Nope. ➡️ When it gets harder to build, whoever ALREADY has capacity gets to charge a premium. Think Mi…

Mortgage rates just hit 7.40%. Ouch. More than 90% of people with a mortgage are sitting on a cheaper one. So NOBODY moves. ✅ Freddie Mac on Thursday: 7.40% on the 30-year. A year ago: 6.30%. That's 7 straight weeks higher. ✅ Goldman: rates are up more than 1 point since February. Over 90% of borrowers now hold a loan below the market rate. ➡️ Moving means trading a cheap loan for an expensive one. Who signs up for that? Nobody. ➡️ Fewer homes for sale. Fewer buyers who can qualify. The market freezes before it breaks. 😇 The pain will be most acutely felt in overbuilt markets. ➡️ But frozen is NOT the same as falling. Location decides who …

Google's AI usage grew 50x in one year. The next year: "only" 6.7x. Boo hoo. That one slowdown explains why a great AI stock can stall while the business is still BOOMING. ✅ Google's monthly AI tokens: 9.7 trillion in 2024. 480 trillion in 2025. 3.2 quadrillion in 2026. ✅ That's about 50x, then about 6.7x. 😇 That's still really good but the growth rate declines. ➡️ Stocks don't pay you for how big you are. They pay you for how fast you're still growing. ➡️ Same story at OpenAI Thursday. Revenue is up more than 70% since July, and the market threw a fit because the PACE is cooling. 😇 The percentage of growth is slowing and that's what make…

Not good

Meta shows you $112 billion of debt and leases. BUT, they SECRETLY have another $628b off balance sheet! ✅ Needham's count, relayed by Zero Hedge: about $628 billion of leases and purchase commitments are NOT on Meta's balance sheet. ✅ That's $5.60 in the footnotes for every $1 Meta shows you. ✅ Count it and Needham says Meta's enterprise value is 35% higher. Same stock, pricier multiple. ✅ In July ALONE, Meta signed $68 billion of new data center leases. One month. About 80% of all its balance sheet debt. ➡️ Yikes, right? Hold on. About $350 billion of that is orders for servers and chips. Future spending pulled forward, not a hidden loan.…

my man

Anthropic just quietly KILLED its discounts. A year ago AI companies were begging you to come back with free months. Now they're yanking the coupons. LOL. ➡️ What I saw in my own account Thursday: extra credits used to come 20% off at $100, 25% off at $250 and 30% off at $1,000. ➡️ Use the discount once and poof. Gone. Rug pulled. 😇 They run out. The discounts disappear. ➡️ Translation: demand is so strong they don't have to pay you to use more. You'll pay full price and say thank you. 😇 IMO that's bullish AI buildout. 😇 Last year when Gemini came out, these companies were begging people with free months of subscriptions to come back. Th…

OpenAI put its IPO on hold. The stated reason: powerful AI is too risky right now. Come on, man. That is marketing 101. ✅ Sam Altman says an IPO is "not 2026," pointing to safety and alignment work still to do. ✅ Meanwhile OpenAI is in talks to raise about $30 billion privately at a $1.4 TRILLION valuation. ➡️ So the pitch is: our product is SO powerful we have to slow down for all of humanity. By the way, the subscribe link is below. 😇 Anytime greed aligns with doing the right thing, you have a little match. 😇 They just happen to be aligned and then it's called branding. ➡️ Want the real reason? Let Anthropic go first and step on the lan…

197,000 jobless claims last week. Under 200,000 AGAIN. That number is holding this whole market up. I call it layoff absorption. ✅ New jobless claims: 197,000. Wall Street expected 200,000. ➡️ We all know the AI layoffs are happening. So where the heck do those people go? ➡️ Right now they get absorbed. The companies booming with AI are still hiring, because revenue is growing faster than they can automate. 😇 The jobs canary is still good. ➡️ Here's the part nobody wants to say out loud: revenue can keep climbing AFTER the hiring stops. 😇 At some point you don't actually have to add proportionately more employees. ➡️ That's the day absorp…

82% of Wall Street pros say an Iran deal before the midterms is a coin flip or worse. I think they're BIGLY WRONG. The noise is the public negotiation. We're close to a deal. ✅ Deutsche Bank surveyed 460 market pros. 82% put the odds of a deal or a durable ceasefire before Nov 3 at 50% or less. ✅ This week the military was told to get ready for strikes and Trump said he doesn't think he wants a deal. Thursday he said no attack before the midterms. 😇 This is very very Trumpian right before we end up getting a deal. ➡️ Iran has the U.S. counteroffer in hand and says it will answer within days. 😇 Donald Trump is threatening to, but I think t…

Apple cutting production on iPhone 18 is somehow bearish when you announce this at twice the price? Bruh Not bearish. f**king bullish. $AAPL https://t.co/BgGe7SBx9O Also, Gemini you suck. @Grok I thank you https://t.co/aHVLLofmNg

Deutsche Bank just turned quite bullish. I’d love to inverse them… but I agree 🤦‍♂️ 🚀🚀🚀 https://t.co/G0BXJyoA3i

SpaceX just bought the ONE thing its phone service was missing: a signal that goes through walls. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile each fell 5% or more after hours. They should be nervous. ✅ SpaceX agreed to buy a nationwide block of 800 MHz spectrum, up to 14 MHz. It still needs FCC approval. ✅ 800 MHz is low band. Longer radio waves. They get through walls and windows and down into basements. ➡️ The knock on satellite phone service: great in a field, useless in your kitchen. Not anymore. 😇 The legacy mobile companies are shaking in their freaking boots, baby. ➡️ Three carriers control your phone bill. The gap between what service costs them an…

Starbucks has reportedly explored buying Chipotle. Seriously. One of the stupidest forms of desperation I can imagine. Bearish Starbucks, bullish Chipotle, bearish the whole damn thing put together. ✅ The FT says Starbucks has worked with advisers on a takeover. Chipotle jumped 6% Thursday. ✅ Starbucks' CEO used to run Chipotle. ➡️ I went through both filings on stream. By my math Starbucks has about $8.1 billion of bills due over the next year against about $4.7 billion of cash and receivables. 😇 Spoiler alert, they ain't got any money. They're broke. ➡️ So a deal means selling shares and piling on debt. That's the bearish Starbucks part.…

🚨 The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage basically prevents a housing crash. No selling pressure. No need to sell. Just keep your rate and stay. Volumes "crash", but prices only dump in overbuilt markets. Kinda wild. https://t.co/kpZ0h7lHce

Dario and Sam need more money though.

Walmart says automation won't mean layoffs. ✅ Why? Turnover is so high they can just stop refilling jobs. ➡️ 140,000+ warehouse workers. ➡️ Fewer needed over time. This is how AI could mask layoffs. Nobody gets fired. Though mechanics for robots will be well-paying jobs! https://t.co/alEB69LfWI https://t.co/b5RQlzCfOU

My $2 Million Dollar Fixer is getting RUINED by California

In this video, we're going to go through construction and teach you a little bit about building in California, especially right at the California coastline, and how it could actually be a hack to your net worth. I just have one favor to ask you. We are going to do a massive spec build, ground up construction in Utah, specifically in Park City. So, if you happen to know any vendors that you would recommend that might want to work with the channel on branding purposes for automated shades, for windows, for flooring, we're talking about a pretty big project and we have two lots in the development. Uh, and and they're each going to be over 10,000…

We just did $1 million in software sales in 72 hours at my startup. AI helped. This economic boom is JUST getting started.

The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3% Thursday. Apple went UP 1.1%. That's the SUCKENING. When everyone sucks, apple BLOWS ✅ SpaceX is reportedly lining up a $40 billion debt raise. Its stock fell 4% Thursday. 😇 Well, duh. Duh. That was all over their balance sheet. ➡️ Every dollar that goes into a new bond, a new raise or a new IPO is a dollar that is NOT buying the dip in the stocks you already own. ➡️ SpaceX, Broadcom, Meta, Google. Great companies. They're also giant vacuum cleaners right now. 😇 SpaceX is one of the suckers. And that's not supposed to be a bad thing. ➡️ Then there's the one giant that isn't asking anybody for a dime. 😇 As usual, …

OpenAI's revenue is NOT $70 billion. It's closer to $50 billion. Oops. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3% on that Thursday. Relax. The canary is not sick. ✅ The FT: OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September. The number going around was $70 billion. 😇 That feels like we just got rugpulled out of 29%. ✅ Why the gap: investors tried to compare OpenAI to Anthropic. Anthropic counts sales made through cloud partners. OpenAI doesn't. ➡️ Lemonade stand version: you sell $100 of lemonade and pay the sign guy $10. One stand calls that $100 of revenue. The other calls it $90. That's the whole scandal. 😇 …

What Elon Musk JUST Pulled Off to F**K the Oligarchy

SpaceX acquiring a low band frequency. What the he double hockey sticks DOES THAT EVEN MEAN? WHY DO WE FREAKING CARE? I'll tell you why we care. It's because the legacy mobile companies are shaking in their freaking boots, baby. And there are some of them that have actually partnered with SpaceX. The first thing you got to know, and this is not sponsored by like any of these companies that I'm about to mention, okay? Although I do have exposure to SpaceX stock in many different ways, both post IPO selloff exposure to SpaceX and and that's up from where we are now to be clear. Uh and and we've been pretty transparent on the channel about what …

The Bubble *JUST* Popped | WTF Just Happened.

I don't know if you can see the theming that's going on here, but we got a Baymax of a certain color. We got a Bionicle of a certain color and a light up from Five Below that was actually 599. So, it wasn't Five Below. Also of a certain complexion. There is a theme here and the theme is generally not one that we are very enthused by. The theme has to do with oh my lord the NASDAQ 100 tanking all of a sudden. What the houble hockey sticks happen? Is this over? Are we screwed? All while at the same time somebody literally I've never seen a subject line like this emails me. Let's make a deal. Trump voice. They put that in quotes hyphen Trump voi…