Kevin Paffrath

Gold can't even rally on HOT inflation. ✅ CPI came in hot Wednesday. Gold dropped ~$60 in 15 minutes. ✅ Friday: back to ~$4,167. Down ~0.5% on the week. 😇 Money printer off, gold no bueno. ✅ Warsh's term as Fed chair runs to May 2030. 😇 Until then, we're in a lost period of time for gold. ➡️ "But an Iran deal makes gold run, right?" 😇 But my belief is that what goes up after an Iran deal are bonds. ➡️ Yields down, bond prices up, less deficit fear. Gold loses its reason to run. ➡️ So if the deal comes, I'm looking at $TLT, & gold gets left behind. 😇 And I'd rather buy semiconductors than gold. 😇 I think Kevin Warsh is actually going to …

$1.7 TRILLION of stock could hit the market next year. ✅ Goldman: $600 billion of new stock sold in 2027. $175 billion of it IPOs. ✅ Plus ~$1.7 trillion of locked-up shares that become tradable. ✅ The biggest jump in net stock supply since 2000, per Goldman. ➡️ 2000. Yep, that one. ➡️ Every dollar into a new IPO or raise is a dollar NOT buying the dip in what you own. ➡️ I've called it the AI money suck: ~$140b of raises in 10ish days. Hardware eats it first. 😇 the people who were highly leveraged ended up getting destroyed ✅ Paul Tudor Jones Tuesday: "I'll be short the whole year" in 2027. ✅ His reason: the most negative flow picture since…

Meta's biggest open model now runs on FOUR Macs. ✅ Muse Spark Open: ~800 billion parameters. Needs ~1TB of memory to run. 😇 I can do this with nine H100s. ➡️ Or 22 gaming GPUs. An RTX 5090 goes for ~$6,900 right now. ✅ 22 of those: ~$150,000 in chips alone. 😇 I could run all of this on four Mac Studios ✅ Four 256GB M5 Ultra Mac Studios: ~$43,000 at Apple's prices. ➡️ Under a THIRD of the cost. On a desk. No data center. 😇 you could run agents on really small computers. 😇 A lot of Muse models only assign like 2 GB of VRAM. ➡️ So the agent wave runs on laptops & Mac Studios, not rented H100s. ➡️ That's why the fast money is leaving the neo…

Chips just fell NINE days in a row. ✅ The chip ETF's longest losing streak since May 2006. ➡️ May 2006: the Fed had just hiked for the 16th time. Chips cracked first then too. ✅ Down 9.4% this week. ~22% below the June record. A second bear market this year. ✅ Hedge funds net sold AI stocks five sessions straight, per Goldman. ✅ All their net AI buying since the start of 2025: GONE. In one week. ➡️ Basically, the fast money already sold. ✅ Net allocation to AI: 26.1%, from 31.7% at the June peak. ➡️ Washed-out positioning is fuel for a bounce. It isn't the bounce. ✅ $NVDA, $AVGO & $MU: ~13x forward earnings on average now. ✅ Barclays' AI har…

CoreWeave is now priced for a 60% chance of DEFAULT. ✅ Down ~12% Friday. Down ~25% on the week. ✅ 5-year default insurance: a record 1,194 bps Thursday. ✅ The 2031 bonds: ~82 cents on the dollar, yielding ~15%. 😇 share price down, CDS's go up. CDS's go up, bonds go down. ➡️ Then the CDS chart goes vertical & people pile into THAT. 😇 What does everybody do when a stock's going to the freaking moon? They buy more of it. 😇 This is a doom loop. It's like the opposite of GameStop. 😇 But they have $18 billion of bills to pay over the next 12 months. ✅ Jensen Thursday: "Their cost of capital is actually decreasing." 😇 I don't know where you're…

Update on the $5,000's for posting "your own videos." I posted 3 and got credit for 0. I realized why... Videos must be: ➡️ Under 3 minutes ➡️ Vertical format ➡️ Max of 1 video per day over 15 days (within 30). So I failed at 1 and 2 so far.

Wow. Coreweave down 23% in 5 days. 47% in 6mo. Credit default swaps now suggest a 64% chance of default. Yikes $CRWV How bad is it really? Not good. ➡️ This stock performance makes it harder for them to issue stock. ➡️ Their bonds dumping ~20% makes it harder for them to issue new debt 😇 So both fundraise methods poopie. Some of this might be "trade momentum" on the CDSs themselves. ➡️ stock down ➡️ cds up ➡️ cds traders buy more cds's ➡️ stock panics more ➡️ repeat But it still causes a problem! best time to buy these is usually when their short-term liquidity actually goes positive... it's well negative right now. idk, no guarantees. w…

holy moly... 12 hours after the iPhone Duo goes up: Best Buy has stock for November 3 and Apple is January 29. The only difference? -Apple has "pay in full" -Best Buy has inventory for phones with cell plans I think this proves scalpers & bots just ruined the iPhone Duo launch. https://t.co/HJSbjjMU1X

I don’t know why it bothers me so much. I guess I just consider my word to be as good as gold. If I say I’m going to do something, I’m going to do it. And if I screw up, which I do, I try my best to fix it @Apple business promising to place my order at 5 AM for our business and breaking that promise by 3 1/2 hours is one thing. The follow up is worse. “Sorry, we had a nationwide failure” Fine. But to all of the businesses that just got fucked by you, who want to develop applications on this and test it with an actual hands-on device, you basically gave them the middle finger. I don’t want a discount. I don’t want to cut anyone in line. A…

Wait… You’re telling me the NASDAQ 100 lost support, Apple business flubbed my duo order, and the power is out? F**k it. Fishing and beer.

Apple just f**ked business owners in "NATIONWIDE FAILURE" ➡️ I JUST received a call from Apple Business. They apologized for delaying our promised "instant 5am Apple business order" because of a "nationwide failure." ➡️ In case you don't know, Apple calls local businesses to build relationships and sell Apple products. ➡️ When you have a relationship, they help your business setup MDM systems and place orders with your entity. ➡️ Apple promised an "instant" 5am order system for businesses who ordered ahead (I ordered Oct 12). ➡️ The system FAILED. ➡️ Orders were not submitted for the iPhone Duo for businesses for 3.5 hours. 😇 I'll get over …

Sam wants some of that suck

Hannity interview may have ended Zacharia's White House spokeswoman career faster than Liz Truss lost her job. #trump might boot her

Unpopular opinion: The #Roadster event was actually just a space, rocket, and jet propulsion recruiting event. and i'm all for it.

Selling Continues.. Stocks, Bonds, Oil, Geopolitics... the ELECTION https://t.co/2HZa1LqjtM

Wall Street forecasts CAPEX GROWTH to SLOW. Pump it up baby!! 2026: +97% 2027: +47% 2028: +9% Still HUGE spending. But stocks trade on the growth rate, & that's the part that falls! https://t.co/2rykoeFyFg Join us at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

Anthropic's growth SLOWED. To 45%. In ONE quarter. That’s still really fast though! ✅ Q3 revenue: $16.8b, up from ~$11.6b in Q2. ✅ Q2 had grown ~147% from Q1's ~$4.7b. ➡️ So that's the "slowdown." Still insane. ✅ Profitable on an adjusted basis, per people at its investor event. ➡️ Adjusted. Remember that word. It adds in (likely) stock comp, commissions, and a lot of training. ✅ Analysts there see a ~$110b run rate by year end. ✅ Reported IPO valuation target: over $2 TRILLION. ➡️ That's ~18x that run rate. ✅ The IPO could come after the midterms, maybe before OpenAI. ➡️ I've said the AI IPOs come after the midterms, Anthropic first! ➡️ IMO…

The #Fed JUST bailed out the US Stock Market. ➡️ Warsh JUST said "since" the Sept FOMC, markets have aligned with "expectations." Yep, 5-year breakevens have "aligned" with pre-hike normalcy. ➡️ He suggests WAITING for the task forces... ➡️ Who might redefine inflation AND ➡️ That AI-led demand inflation is not due to good policy (by Trump) AND ➡️ The Fed needs to be careful of financial stability (Leopold and Leopold #2) ➡️ The Fed needs to be careful of tail risks ➡️ The Fed needs to be careful of employment uncertainty Bullish.

JPMorgan vs ME on memory. ✅ JPMorgan sees memory short ~20% in 2026, ~19% in 2027, ~15% in 2028. ✅ Over 75% of Micron's fiscal 2027 output is already committed, per JPMorgan. ➡️ That's the bull case. Tight for years. 😇 I'm bearish memory and the memory cycle. 😇 I think 2026 is the year that memories peaked out ➡️ Why? Supply. Chinese DRAM keeps gaining share. ✅ CXMT already had ~10% of global DRAM revenue in Q2. ➡️ & costlier US fabs come online on top of that. ✅ Even JPMorgan says memory costs are squeezing PCs. ➡️ High prices kill demand. That's how a cycle peaks. 🚨 JPMorgan likes $MU & $SNDK, and Micron has years of contracts signed.

The Tesla #Roadster Event was AMAZING ✅ Production 2028. 0.81s speed 0-60. ✅ Possible top speed of 382mph 😇 To me, this isn't about the $TSLA Roadster. It's showing off what two amazing companies can do together. This engineering is REMARKABLE. Imagine our space future!! 🚀🚀 https://t.co/FUx7dUw0Yb

🚨 Warsh speaks TONIGHT at 8:30 PM PT. His last word before the Fed's blackout. October hike odds are ~34% after this morning's HOT PPI. My read: No deal. No deal. Expect more hikes. https://t.co/QsHVFEXRcw More at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

Can a Mac Studio PAY for itself in AI tokens? ✅ $AAPL & $META just teamed up to run Meta's new open Muse model on Macs. ✅ It needs two 512GB M5 Ultra Mac Studios. That one isn't on sale yet. ✅ A Mac Studio with M5 Ultra starts at $5,499. ➡️ Save $500 a month in tokens? Paid back in ~11 months. ➡️ Save $1,000 a month? ~5.5 months. ✅ The 256GB version already runs over $10,000. ➡️ At $500 a month, that's 20+ months. ✅ Renting that same model: $1.25 per million tokens in, $4.25 out. ➡️ $500 buys ~118 million output tokens a month. ➡️ Agents burn ~5x the tokens people do. ➡️ IMO $500 is LOW for anyone running agents all day. 🚨 Local models stil…

ELON MUSK: Tesla Roadster "enters production in 2028, actually"

🚨 One $META Muse user can cost ~$445 a year. ✅ Muse is Meta's free AI agent. ✅ Meta makes ~$70 a year per user, per Morgan Stanley. ➡️ Sounds like a disaster, right? Nope. Do the math. ✅ Muse had ~2.73 million daily users on Oct 6. ✅ New users per day slowed from ~198K to ~74K in a month. ➡️ Slower adds = a smaller bill too. ➡️ 2.73 million x $445 = ~$1.2b a year, at MS's ceiling. ✅ Meta did $60.8b of revenue last quarter, up 28%. ➡️ That's ~0.5% of revenue to win the AI agent race. ✅ MS sees the real money in an agent ad auction, late '27 or '28 at the earliest. ➡️ Get everyone hooked free now, then run the auction. ➡️ That's why I'm still…

Elon Musk: "This car really sucks" this enables downforce and sticking the ground; to where it can stick upside down.

WTF!!! take my money

Elon Musk: Eventually, the @tesla #roadster will be the ONLY manually driven car Tesla makes.

Elon Musk, "uhhh, success isn't guaranteed" tonight. "It'll probably work." #roadster

I think this #roadster event is really good marketing for the merger of $SPCX and $TSLA - might be the purpose too.

Elon Musk opens up #roadster even with "we need an audience to prove this event isn't AI or SI" This is "better than any James Bond car"