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82% of Wall Street pros say an Iran deal before the midterms is a coin flip or worse. I think they're BIGLY WRONG. The noise is the public negotiation. We're close to a deal. ✅ Deutsche Bank surveyed 460 market pros. 82% put the odds of a deal or a durable ceasefire before Nov 3 at 50% or less. ✅ This week the military was told to get ready for strikes and Trump said he doesn't think he wants a deal. Thursday he said no attack before the midterms. 😇 This is very very Trumpian right before we end up getting a deal. ➡️ Iran has the U.S. counteroffer in hand and says it will answer within days. 😇 Donald Trump is threatening to, but I think that's all it is. I think it's just a threat. ➡️ A wider war before the election means higher oil, and Republicans get shellacked. He knows that. ➡️ My map: Iran's answer around Oct 12, then a deal window before the Fed meets on Oct 27. ✅ Brent crude is back above $100. ➡️ When 82% of the pros aren't betting on a deal, the surprise is all on one side. 🚨 The risk: Iran won't give up enrichment, tankers keep getting hit and oil stays over $100. My map could be wrong. 😇 Bottom Line: The noise gets loud before a deal. The word BOMBastic works well here LOL. I expect a deal between October 20-27.