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Open original source ↗Meta shows you $112 billion of debt and leases.
BUT, they SECRETLY have another $628b off balance sheet!
✅ Needham's count, relayed by Zero Hedge: about $628 billion of leases and purchase commitments are NOT on Meta's balance sheet.
✅ That's $5.60 in the footnotes for every $1 Meta shows you.
✅ Count it and Needham says Meta's enterprise value is 35% higher. Same stock, pricier multiple.
✅ In July ALONE, Meta signed $68 billion of new data center leases. One month. About 80% of all its balance sheet debt.
➡️ Yikes, right? Hold on. About $350 billion of that is orders for servers and chips. Future spending pulled forward, not a hidden loan.
➡️ The only question that matters: does the spending turn into growth?
➡️ I'm using 20% growth. The Street is under 16%. The Street is asleep.
😇 I get to my $1,822 price target.
➡️ Meta closed around $721 Thursday. Do the math.
🚨 The risk: AI demand cools early and Meta is stuck paying for capacity it doesn't need. A commitment is only "not debt" while you still want what you ordered.
➡️ Bottom line: big footnotes, bigger growth. That's my bet.