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Open original source ↗OpenAI's revenue is NOT $70 billion. It's closer to $50 billion. Oops.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3% on that Thursday. Relax. The canary is not sick.
✅ The FT: OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion at the end of September. The number going around was $70 billion.
😇 That feels like we just got rugpulled out of 29%.
✅ Why the gap: investors tried to compare OpenAI to Anthropic. Anthropic counts sales made through cloud partners. OpenAI doesn't.
➡️ Lemonade stand version: you sell $100 of lemonade and pay the sign guy $10. One stand calls that $100 of revenue. The other calls it $90. That's the whole scandal.
😇 So this is all just one big misunderstanding.
✅ Revenue is still up more than 70% since July.
➡️ Remember my two canaries: the labor market, and revenue at OpenAI and Anthropic.
😇 This doesn't actually mean the canary is sick.
😇 This canary is not levitating. It's singing, but it's not levitating.
🚨 The risk: the growth rate IS slowing. If one of these two rolls over, the whole AI trade feels it. Not yet. I'll be the first to tell you.