Kevin Paffrath

OpenAI Revenues Issues, Stocks, Oil, Fed, Faaaa https://t.co/a2pWDCyEex

Every f**king time!!!!!! https://t.co/ME8JxuwIh9

Trump JUST Taco'd | What Trump & Iran **JUST** Said

Just seconds ago, Donald Trump clarifies that, quote, "We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd. We will not be attacking anytime and we are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is exactly what we thought would end up happening, that there's no chance in hell this is happening before the election." Now, in what you're about to see, I'm going to break down the exact negotiation that's going on. I just want you to know that there are some reference into references in this where I'm like, they're talking about making battle plans. This is…

DANGER: The Starbucks Chipotle Stock Merger

Well, a stupid idea has just crossed headlines, front page of the Financial Times indicates that now Starbucks has explored a takeover of Chipotle. This is probably one of the stupidest forms of desperation I could ever imagine, but I will say if it happens, it's probably going to be really beneficial really fast to one of these two stocks. Let's first of all go through a little bit of color on these financials because let's be real here. Chipotle isn't exactly cheap company. Now, its stock has come down a lot since the peak of the growth phase in 2024 with Chipotle lanes coming, you've got this insane expansion of a business. I love Chipotle…

The War Returns??? Fed Speak, AI and Chips, & Year-End Rally https://t.co/fKRYnXp6TF

oh f**k me

Is it possible that your boy meet Kevin is just wrong and he's about to lose lots of money? Uh yeah, uh it is. Now, so far, I don't think I am, but what I'd like to do is go through, humbly of course, how we could end up being wrong. First, let's just clarify the thesis briefly, and then we're going to get into some facts and some analysis, as well as some charts around uh-oh, is it possible? We still got some work to do. We're going to look at those in just a moment. So, first things first, this morning in our alpha report, when we saw the yield all the way up 7.5 basis points, we argued, "Hey, yields come down, stocks up." Really simple arg…

Everyone keeps yelling 1999. Here's the number that says we're not there yet. ✅ BofA's bubble gauge: only 18 stocks in the S&P 500 are over the bubble line. ✅ At the dot-com peaks it was 50 to 100. ✅ Those 18 are 3.2% of the index. Back then: 20% to 40%. ➡️ The froth is in pockets, not everywhere. Tech as a whole is still under the line. ➡️ History check: in the '90s boom, long rates rose 2 full points and the Fed hiked. Stocks kept climbing anyway. 😇 This rocketship has way more gas in it than people realize. For now. 😇 I'm bullish. ➡️ My two canaries: the labor market, and revenue at OpenAI and Anthropic. Both are still singing. 🚨 "Not…

A year ago, Wall Street expected S&P 500 earnings to grow 16% this quarter. Now the number is 30%. ✅ Q3 earnings growth expected a year ago: 16.1%. Expected now: 30.2%. (Jefferies, citing LSEG) ✅ Tech: 65.1%. Semiconductors: 131.7%. ➡️ Estimates nearly doubled in 12 months. ✅ Even the Fed said it. Today's FOMC minutes: the rise in stock prices this year was entirely attributable to strong actual and expected corporate earnings, while P/E multiples declined. 😇 This is insane to see this inside of the FOMC minutes. ➡️ Translation: stocks went up in price and got cheaper at the same time. ➡️ This is why stocks keep shrugging off a 10-year abo…

You are paying for the Iran war 4 different ways. And the people getting richer from it are probably not you. ✅ The bombs. Your tax dollars. ✅ The tanker insurance. Also your tax dollars. ✅ Gas. $2.96 before the war. $4.43 now. ✅ Your power bill. ➡️ Utilities have to borrow at these yields. That cost lands on you. ➡️ Add a 7.28% mortgage rate on top. ➡️ Meanwhile the Nasdaq 100 just hit another record high. ✅ The top 10% of households own 87% of the stock market. 😇 This is a massive disguised wealth transfer from the poor to the rich. 😇 It is the definition of reverse taxation. ➡️ You either own businesses, stocks and real estate, or you …

The average S&P 500 stock is on track to fall 7 weeks in a row. That has only happened twice before: 2002 and 2022. ✅ The equal weight S&P 500 is headed for its 7th straight weekly decline. ✅ Meanwhile the Nasdaq 100 just hit a record high. ➡️ Translation: a handful of mega caps are carrying the index. Everything else is getting hosed. ➡️ Small caps, banks and utilities live and die by interest rates. That's who is getting hit. ✅ Goldman's desk says only 23% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day average. 😇 In my opinion, it is really bullish. 😇 We're really in a bottoming process for the rest of the S&P 500. ➡️ 2002 and 2022 were both …

What the Fed *JUST* Warned

This is insane to see this inside of the FOMC minutes. The Federal Reserve just released their minutes. And while a lot of people are freaking out about the most simple things that their AI is telling them to worry about, like, oh no, most committee members saw another rate hike as likely they missed the forest for the trees as usual. But that's okay. That's why we come here to get the extra nuance. Yeah. And another cup of coffee. The ghost of JPAL is back. Can you see the ghost of JPAL on the screen here? If you look closely enough and you squint your eyes, you will see a coupon code and Jerome Powell. No, it's right here. This is literally…

This is a HUGE SHIFT

The market obviously has started going red today, giving back some of the enthusiasm of yesterday. Should we care and what does it mean? >> [clears throat] >> My opinion, the answer is no. We really shouldn't care right now. Why? Because a lot of this is driven by the return of the suckening that we knew was coming. The suckening strikes back. The suckening returns. Elon Musk issuing now the largest ever or seeking to issue the largest ever debt financing for the AI buildout. $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips, $10 billion from the banks, $30 billion from bond investors. And frankly, the more expensive we see or the higher yield we see from bond…

The Suckening Returns: SPCX $40b Raise, Markets, Fed, Iran, Houthi's, Fear https://t.co/EB5TGnDnvp

Agentic AI Stocks: Avoid THESE, Buy THIS

So, we already know that Meta has, in my opinion, a lot of upside. But, it's not just in my opinion, it's also on what Wall Street thinks. Just taking Wall Street numbers and applying a very basic multiple to Meta, this stock still has a 43% upside. But, what about a gentic commerce? And what is a gentic commerce, especially because of this Meta Muse moment, going to do to other platforms, Amazon, Google, Etsy, DoorDash, Wingstop? Well, we've got some estimates out now from Deutsche Bank, and we're going to break all of those down. Keep in mind a couple things. Uh number one, my price target for Meta is actually much higher than this. I think…

How Midterms will F**K Up the Stock Market

$3 trillion of data center spending sits on this election. In this video, we're going to break down exactly what could potentially go down if we end up with Republicans remaining in control, which seems unlikely right now. What happens if Democrats sweep? Uh-oh. Oh, or is it a good thing? And what happens if Democrats get a little bit of a victory? Hint, hint. It all has to do with a lot of this because what happens up here is a mandate for what local governments should end up doing. And boy oh boy, local governments right now have control of about 50 gigawatts gigawatts of potential data center spending. Mind you for a moment that every giga…

holy smaboly the market flip is fracking starting https://t.co/PZBTGVTJL1

Airbnb nerve hit

Oura Ring is so desperate to make sure their IPO does not get screwed up, requests to export your own data take up to 10 days unless you renew your membership 💀 https://t.co/Dq6s9FMnLP

Well then.. Rates, Fed, Iran, Jobs... https://t.co/N3A3ZleAQu

🚨 Wait so $TSLA deliveries are within 3% of last year’s Q3 numbers, yet this year no $7500 EV tax credit? That’s actually insane. Big PP https://t.co/kRAq4B3YyF

well then! LFG! Iran, Stocks, Fed, Rates https://t.co/INKzynwU8L

Uh Oh | The Jobs Report https://t.co/HClcZ6N2gf

The Morning After Micron, Jobs Tomorrow, Iran LACKS Progress. https://t.co/XvOANZHddT

Market Recovery, Fed Bailout, Iran, War, Oil, Micron https://t.co/9m3FCqs68w

stocks and oil drop... ohh man https://t.co/4qr69129V2

It's like an Apple event, except it's the government 🤯

Market & Yields, Anthropic IPO, Oura DELAYS IPO... https://t.co/gFdujSSf7e

Anthropic's actual numbers divided by 100k (to relate), are insane: 😇 You make $45.9k/yr 😇 You spend $126.5k/yr 😇 Somehow you're worth $20m 😇 & you just promised you'd spend $5.18m 😇 How? 😇 Rich people keep investing in you 😇 So you can keep buying their products https://t.co/rv2vCSKp9C

So conveniently AFTER the market closed, Trump now says the Axios story on Iran being offered "sanctions relief" by the USA was just "fake" news. https://t.co/1THcX1Snut

Fed Error? More Concern, Yields RISE MORE, Little Iran News, AI FEAR https://t.co/ketpREqDMQ