Source item

Everyone keeps yelling 1999. Here's the number that says we're not there yet. ✅ BofA's bubble gauge: only 18 stocks in the S&P 500 are over the bubble line. ✅ At the dot-com peaks it was 50 to 100. ✅ Those 18 are 3.2% of the index. Back then: 20% to 40%. ➡️ The froth is in pockets, not everywhere. Tech as a whole is still under the line. ➡️ History check: in the '90s boom, long rates rose 2 full points and the Fed hiked. Stocks kept climbing anyway. 😇 This rocketship has way more gas in it than people realize. For now. 😇 I'm bullish. ➡️ My two canaries: the labor market, and revenue at OpenAI and Anthropic. Both are still singing. 🚨 "Not there yet" is not "never". When a canary stops singing, this changes fast.