Kevin Paffrath

💀 Private credit shadow default rates have DOUBLED -per JPM https://t.co/ljm8Phb9Px

omg what's happening https://t.co/veiHwPR3TB

The perfect kind of selloff to get Trump to TACO on Iran. https://t.co/0CpkfJsqOp

This CPI Report is Bad for MANY Reasons...

Crap. The CPI numbers just came out and they're bad. They're not good. They're just not good. This unfortunately aligns with the fear that we had yesterday. The fear we had yesterday is you just can't win because even if you end up getting a better number on the headline, like .5 or .4, it's still bad. Like even if you win, you're still a loser. Okay? But we just matched a horrible number. That is a 7.2% annualized year-over-year gain in CPI. That's crazy. This is the headline number. See how I kind of put it closer to the head. All right? Uh this set over here, this is our core number. Uh yesterday I also said I'm really disappointed about C…

*The Critical Release of the CPI Report* FED RATES https://t.co/TNZolhyMW5

Data centers are on the BALLOT. 35 times. And 21 of them are in ONE state. Ohio takes the CAKE baby at 21!!! 21 out of 35! ✅ BofA counts 35 local data center measures on November 3. None are statewide. 21 in Ohio, 7 in Illinois, 3 in Kansas. ✅ About half would ban facilities or cap them, often at 25 MW. Several Illinois questions and six in Ohio point the OTHER way: let them build. ✅ Pause or moratorium proposals also show up in 20 of the 36 governor races. ➡️ BofA's read: sequencing, not opposition. The money moves states. It does not stop. ➡️ Towns want the tax base and hate the power bill. Both are true. That's why it's on a ballot and n…

Goldman says stocks go up 10% in 2027. Read the fine print: the WHOLE call leans on the 10-year falling to 4.4%. The bull case and the rate call are the SAME bet. ✅ Goldman's strategists: stocks edge higher into year end and rise about 10% in 2027. Their caveat: stable rates could cap it. ✅ Goldman's base case has the 10-year easing from about 5.3% to 4.4% by the end of 2027. It sits around 5.2% on Tuesday. ✅ Goldman's wealth math: flat stocks through 2027 would cost consumer spending growth just under half a point. ➡️ So the market is a spending engine, not a scoreboard. ✅ Deutsche Bank's survey of 460 pros: their average guess for the 10-…

Tesla sold 486,532 cars last quarter with NO $7,500 tax credit. Last year's record quarter HAD the credit. Down 2%. That's not a demand collapse, baby. That's pricing power. ✅ Q3 deliveries: 486,532. Wall Street expected 461,974. A beat of about 24,600. ✅ Q3 last year: 497,099, a record, with buyers rushing to beat the credit's September 30 deadline. 😇 Numbers were actually fantastic because you are within 3 percent of last year's sales without a $7500 tax credit. That's actually incredible. ➡️ Everybody said demand would fall off a cliff when the credit died. Nope. Not even close. ✅ Production: 464,391. Deliveries beat production by about…

Everybody's yelling about Meta's $628 BILLION footnote. Google's footnote? $707 BILLION. Oops. ✅ Needham, via Zero Hedge: Meta shows $112 billion of debt and leases. The footnotes hold about $628 billion more. Count it and Meta gets 35% pricier. ✅ Alphabet's own filing: $707 billion of future fixed commitments at the end of June. ✅ Zero Hedge redid the math for Google. Enterprise value rises 21%, not the 3% Needham used. ✅ On that basis Google trades at 9.0x 2027 sales. Meta: 8.3x. Google is the pricier stock. ➡️ So the "Meta problem" is a Big Tech problem. Meta just has the most of it for its size. ➡️ Search is still about 53% of Alphabet'…

Rates at 5%. The Fed is hiking. And America's biggest banks just said the consumer is FINE. Card losses FELL at JPMorgan, Wells Fargo AND Citi. Come on, man. People spend until they lose their jobs. ✅ Tuesday's earnings: JPMorgan's card charge-offs fell to 2.91% from 3.15%. Wells Fargo: 3.73% from 4.02%. Citi: 3.6% from 4.0%. ✅ Citi's US card spending is up 11%. Wells Fargo's CEO: "Consumers are spending more, loan delinquencies are low." ✅ Goldman's math on 5% yields: about 0.2 points off 2027 growth. The economy still grows near 2.3%. 😇 The consumer is going to keep spending as long as they have jobs and I don't see consumers losing jobs…

The Shadow Debt Crisis JUST Got Twice as Bad.

Private credit and the debt market are starting to fall off of a cliff. In this video, we're going to break down what this means for you and how bad is it really? Take a look at this. It's a big arrow going down. Spoiler alert, it's not good. Let's though first start with what JP Morgan just warned. Then we're going to talk about what's going on in the AI bond market and then we'll talk about what this means for us. So, first we've all heard of private credit already. A lot of private creditf funded companies started going bankrupt at the end of last year, leading to a big fear that uh-oh, we are just at the tip of that black swan event where…

🚨 The "sophisticated recording device" OpenAI discovered is available for $23.51. The Antenna they found is available for $0.50. https://t.co/2OcVFLUMFx

OpenAI discovered 1 recording device and calls the FBI. Imagine how many they haven't discovered yet. https://t.co/3fPqP570zz

Now, after the pause, add in: "You'll need to unlock your HomeView first."

The Fed JUST Bailed us Out AGAIN | What do they SEE?!?!?!

Well, this is starting to look a little weird. We just had the vice chair of the Federal Reserve rate setting committee come out again to help bail out markets. We'll talk about what he just said in a moment, but what I want you to pay attention to is when he said it. So, the first time he made his comments were right here when we were at the 735 line and the Nasdaq was having its 1 2 3 4 5th red day in a row. We're bouncing on the 735 line, people are nervous, and all of a sudden what helps us get to ALL-TIME HIGHS? OH, maybe we don't actually need an interest rate hike in October. In fact, this was the September 29th article. Fed Williams h…

Holy sh*t. The scariest sh*t is a partner at @Sequoia saying AI = obviously good for human connection, so let's buy a money-losing dating app with plummeting revenue for a 38% premium over its public value. The desperation to make deals is becoming a concerning top signal. https://t.co/ij6tivn3iu

We have *JUST* 7 days left.

We're back from vacation, which means the stock market should start going up again because that has always been the tendency. But we've got to talk about a full catchup of absolutely everything that's going on. Which means we need to talk about the fears about artificial intelligence. What is happening with anthropic? What is happening with Broadcom? What is happening with Iran and therefore rates and oil? What is happening with the Fed? What is happening and expected to happen tomorrow with CPI? And then of course this all comes on the back of the great suckening. The great sucking is a little bit of an oopsy doopsies every time. And we say …

Stocks Fall, Yields Fall, the $140b SUCKENING Returns https://t.co/eEB8a0aLG2

S&P 500 profits have two big PRETTY PADS (PP’s!) in ‘em. ✅ About $150B of Q2 "other income" was just marking up private AI stakes. That's ~12% of S&P EPS. ➡️ $AMZN booked $53.4B; mostly Anthropic ➡️ $GOOG booked a $77.1B; lots of $SPCX ➡️ Q2 earnings growth ~51%. 33% w/o AMZN/GOOG. ➡️ Tariff refunds added ~6% of pretax profits in Q2+Q3, post IEEPA. wild. Still well over 15% earnings growth YOY though when you subtract out some junk and conservatism. A lot of stocks starting to look cheap on multiples.

This doesn’t surprise me. Prediction markets are integrating into financial markets more and more. ➡️ Fed expectations ➡️ Inflation expectations ➡️ Iran-deal expectations I’m a fan. Example… I saw odds of 1 hike this year at 9%. Bet $90 and turned it into $180. Less about the money… more about the signal. So I bought the dip in the Q’s / hardware around the same time. Yes, my company is also sponsored by Kalshi, but this opinion above is my own. https://t.co/dqvM3duY9L Get $25 when you make your first $25 trade

We should be praying AI data centers keep growing. If they go, we all go. See construction below. And Warsh ain't going to help us back up. Powell took the money printer with him. https://t.co/PbGOCgMgag

On #Fed hikes..minutes revealed: "Participants pointed to "ongoing geopolitical developments" and "surging AI-related investments" as sources of inflation pressure" But Fed can’t touch either ➡️ Hike was solely to manipulate inflation expectations & declare Warsh isn’t a baby.

So what socialism stocks should we think about longing for the 2029 takeover? I’ll go first… ➡️ Solar

So let me get this straight… ➡️ Fed Waller wants to hike due to AI-induced inflation… ➡️ rates go up for everyone ➡️ richest companies sock cash into money markets ➡️ rich collect higher yield ➡️ poorer consumers pay it ➡️ rich don’t get constrained ➡️ rich keep spending…

🚨 WORTH KNOWING: Out of last 5 years, hedge funds had MORE exposure to stocks 98% of the time... aka low exposure.

Fear not panicans… my vacation ends today. Back tomorrow. https://t.co/N4SY2HNjOe

AI debt getting pricier… but the big boys can afford it. SpaceX's 30-year bond down 14% in under 4 months ➡️ Yield up from 6.7% to 7.95% ➡️ $3.5B slice of SpaceX's $25B bond sale Worth tracking tho… https://t.co/V5m0SfHVbJ

Ray Dalio tells us we’re in the 9th inning more than Meet Kevin changes his mind

Michael Burry is not wrong. He’s just 3-5 years early & lights $ on fire, because that 🔥 sells more Substack subscriptions, likely more than paying for his losses He’s the dude at a party b*tching at 7pm that the cops are going to get called. They will, but party on until then https://t.co/AksXdL17Bj

People freaking out about $AVGO casino comments from CEO Hock Tan… the ceo is actually really smart and on point. He’s blunt and honest. And he’s right imo My thoughts… Hock Tan Comments CEO AVGO 
😇 Creating some anxiety today from DBS tech forward conference 📙 He says AI chip/compute demand: Demand for AI infrastructure is outpacing supply; likely to NEXT FEW YEARS. He is confident near-term but more uncertain further out 📙 but… the Biggest bottleneck is shifting to capital: Physical constraints (wafers, memory, power, land) have shifted and may ease over time (e.g., memory tightness possibly resolving within a year; wafer constraints b…