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We're back from vacation, which means the stock market should start going up again because that has always been the tendency. But we've got to talk about a full catchup of absolutely everything that's going on. Which means we need to talk about the fears about artificial intelligence. What is happening with anthropic? What is happening with Broadcom? What is happening with Iran and therefore rates and oil? What is happening with the Fed? What is happening and expected to happen tomorrow with CPI? And then of course this all comes on the back of the great suckening. The great sucking is a little bit of an oopsy doopsies every time. And we say this all the time. It's actually one of the easiest things we do in the alpha report. I'm just going to shout it out there. Okay, I shouldn't be doing it, but I'm going to shout it out anyway. One of the easiest things about the suckening is anytime markets are worried about the suckening, which means this raising of capital, think about what was raised. You've got a Broadcom race with Anthropic, a Broadcom race with Oracle, and we're talking like $40 billion, or sorry, a Broadcom race with Anthropic, and one with OpenAI. The Anthropic one was like $40 billion. You got those two raises. Then you've got an Oracle raise coming up and you've got the SpaceX $40 billion. You've got somewhere around $140 billion of money raises that were announced within about the last 7 days. And the Oracle one is still sort of pending. So, we're lumping that into that. That's a lot of capital that has to go into these bonds. And these bonds are starting to offer higher yields because they have to. That sucks money out of a lot of stocks except for Apple. Apple loves it when everyone else gets sucked dry of capital. For some reason, people throw money into Apple stock every single time there are these announcements of deals. And so, it ends up being an easy trade. We bounced off 332 on the announcements of the uh the suckening last week. We're like, hey, it's going to bounce here. This is bullish. Apple, all of these announcements and you know, it's up 14 points since then. And this trend seems to continue. So, while Nvidia or AMD or chip stocks suffer, you end up getting Apple that does well. And then of course people go sort of cherrypick some software names as well like Salesforce or Palunteer or another one we're very excited about is Meta. Uh in the last two alpha reports we've been calling for a bounce on Meta and both days we called the bounce. Uh we have seen a bounce over the last two days here. 717 was where we closed uh about two days ago, two market days ago. We called for a bounce right after that. bounced intraday and we called for a bounce again this morning and it also continued its bounce. So why why why does this happen and what is the giant fear that's going on? Well, the giant fear that's going on is really the bond market sending some concerning signals around the suckening. Look at SpaceX's bonds. So I tweeted this yesterday. Some of this is a little niche, but it's really important for the broader market. So I'll explain it, but you can follow me on X at Realme Kevin. But take a look at this. SpaceX's bonds keep sinking. So, this is the 30-year bond price for SpaceX and SpaceX's bonds have gone from par value of $100. So, think you start at a hundred. Okay? It's like a race. Okay? If you go over a 100red, that's that's you're making money. You go under 100, you're losing money. But the more under a hundred you go, the higher the yield goes for a new purchaser. Not the existing holder, it's for a new purchaser. So what you ended up having uh was this this collapse and sort of bleed out of these SpaceX bonds now down 14% which for the bond market is a lot. That's about 14.8%. Uh sending the effective yield up for SpaceX to borrow on 30-year debt to 8%. I mean these are like you know 30-year mortgage rate levels and that's what SpaceX is borrowing for. And so some of this combined with the Hawk Tan comments yesterday from Broadcom, which I think were broadly misunderstood. Uh you had a little bit of uh some concern around hardware. Again, yesterday I wrote that people are freaking out about Broadcom CEO's uh casino comments. I actually find that the CEO is pretty smart and on point and he's generally very blunt and honest. And really what he was talking about was this fear that happens where why is it that when OpenAI, you know, one investor says, "Oh, their gross revenue, net annual recurring revenue was $70 billion." And another investor says, "Well, well, I calculate the net at $50 billion." The fact that the entire stock market moved down over that concern, I think it was last Thursday or Wednesday, one of those days, was ridiculous. and he's arguing that a lot of people are simply trying to gamble on the stock market, that they're not really investing in longerterm AI, which he is bullish on. Obviously, he argues that it's going to take time for the productivity to prove itself, but overall, we need to we're going to move on from this sort of memory shortage to a money shortage. And so he actually hit the nail on the head in my opinion that the great sucketing we've been talking about is exactly the shortage that markets face right now is you need more money to pay for the continuation of this cycle. And that's partly what this CEO is actually trying to solve at Broadcom because they are conducting vendor financing deals where you know they'll raise $40 billion turn it around to sell chips to Anthropic and so they get revenue today and then they hold the bag of accounts receivable. Now the good news is a stock like this has gone down to like a6 peg right now. uh compared to its expectations, this is a dirt cheap stock. It should probably be a four or fivex from where it is now. Obviously, assuming some reasonable level of growth continues for the company and that's one of the reasons why we've seen such a rollover is that a lot of people are still of the mindset that oh this growth can't continue. I'm of the mindset that the products we see from OpenAI, Anthropic or Grock or Muse continue to get better. One of the reasons we've seen Meta Rocket has been the release of the Watermelon model, which was the code name, and it's actually the Wonder uh sort of MetaFrontier AI, if you will. I did notice that Meta is also offering uh and this is not sponsored by Meta, but they're offering a free option if you while you're using Muse, you can get their Max plan free for a year. I don't know if that pops up for everybody, but I saw it pop up and I'm like, it's kind of brilliant because people are going to forget that they signed up for that and then they'll end up getting renewed next year. Brilliant way to get people sort of like used to maxing out and then they get crimped. Really smart by Zuck. I'm pretty bullish meta. Uh but that said, all this sucketing combined with some of this commentary about, oh, it's a casino out there that makes people very nervous about the AI trade. I think that's why we're seeing some bumps, especially when you combine it with what we've got going on in Iran and then with a big catalyst like CPI coming up. Now, I have uh sort of a bet that I would like to make after CPI comes out. And uh you know, this is this is I a lot of people they look at and they're like, "Oh, I don't know. Do I want to use Cali?" I like using Kouchy as sort of just a leading indicator for where people's heads are and where I could take the over or under compared to what's going on in the financial markets. So, I personally hope that this right here, this exactly one number of rate cuts plummets tomorrow after CPI and and then I'm curious depending on what CPI does. I want to make a play on this. Uh because I've I've played this before and I I put like a hundred bucks in and I doubled my money because this was all the way down at 9%. So, I'm kind of hoping for a revisit over there. So, I'm kind of excited about that. I haven't I haven't made any kind of uh bet here. And I think a lot's going to come down to CPI tomorrow, which we'll talk about. But, I do think it's interesting because we could see that, you know, markets are pretty confident we're going to get multiple rate hikes. If we get a weak CPI and we get an Iran deal, we're done. This is going to be one and done, which will be very exciting. Quick note, obviously KCHI is a paid sponsor of Reinvest My Startup. You get a free $25 when you sign up and make your first trade at kshi.com/r/mevin or you could use code meet Kevin when you sign up to claim that. But let's talk for a moment about the Iran expectations because that's that's the other big issue right now is what is going on with Iran? Why don't we actually have news out of Iran? Well, this also bodess into this, you know, higher rate hike expectation is I believe, you know, today is what is it the 13th? Today's the 13th. I believe that we're most likely the best window for us to get a deal, and I've said this for a while, the best window to get a deal is between the 20th and the 27th. The rationale for this time frame is this right here is where the Federal Reserve's uh meeting is. And so if you get a hot CPI report tomorrow, the only thing that solves a hot CPI report for us not getting a rate hike in October is Donald Trump getting a deal with Iran. So that's why this window becomes really important. And then if we don't have a hot CPI tomorrow, then you could get a deal in this range before midterms and enable potentially no cut or sorry, no hike. I should say hike if I said cut. You know what I meant, a hike? Uh no hike in December. That becomes really important. So where do we stand with Iran? Well, right now we're in that clear negotiation phase where Iran reportedly has accepted some of uh the US proposal and the US has accepted some of the Iranian side proposal, but there's still a lot of hawking going on in the media, specifically around Iran calling the UK base incident a false flag, where MI5 is blaming Iran for this attempted attack they thwarted uh against the air base that could have potentially attacked US bomber plane planes. Iran's like, "This is just a false flag to make us look bad." At the same time, you've got concerns that the Iranians are trying to ramp up their ability to dis uh or or disrupt the uh shuttle system they call it in the straight of Hormuz. This is basically where the United States provides insurance for ships and then escorts with the ra with the US blockade uh oil tankers through the straight of Hormuz. And so there's been talk about potentially ramping up attacks over here. And then there's also at the same time been talk about Iran fortifying its nuclear sites, rallying its people for a return to fighting. This is all very similar to Donald Trump saying we're going to strike them again. It's going to be after midterms. We're sending a third carrier to the region. You're at a level of verbal and public negotiating that in my opinion doesn't match what's actually happening behind closed doors. I think behind closed doors, and I believe this, I I'm willing to be wrong on this, but I don't think I am. I think we the the more aggressive this talk gets in public, the closer we are to just finishing some leftover details. And so that window between the 20th and 27th is the target I'm looking for. Keep in mind that does mean this next week is not so ideal. And we have CPI tomorrow, which we got to talk about too. But look at this. The 10-year is at 521. This is actually below my peak of 527. Now, yes, my 527 did rubber band up a little bit, but I've been talking about this peak for gosh, probably about 3 weeks now. And well before other people were talking about it. I think you know that because you've been here. So, it's not like we're trying to rewrite the past. All my videos are live, you know, like there are other YouTube channels. Well, they they will delete their historical videos. All my historical videos are up. Almost all there there are some few that that don't exist because they had either there were mistakes or they had to be taken down. Like, you know, back in the day, I made some videos about Dave Ramsey or Grant Cardone and and some of those might be missing. [laughter] But I I would say like 99.9% my right calls and my wrong calls, they're all there, right? I'm a big fan of that transparency. Like I'd rather be transparent and wrong than do what you know some channels do some either in finance or tax accounting or whatever where like every couple weeks they just go through and delete their videos from 6 months ago. It's crazy. You could look on SocialBlade and you see the views go negative. You'll see like minus 500,000 views. It's like aha aha. I know we know what they're doing. But anyway, this is very interesting because, you know, we charted this out and what we flagged was how vertical this was going. That, you know, previously the growth in the 10-year uh the slope of the line somewhat looked like this. And then we flagged that this was starting to flatten out. Well, not only has this line started to flatten out, which is very bullish right here, but it's actually started to rotate down now, which is really exciting. And I don't think a lot of people are paying attention to this, but I think this is the 10-year bond market telling you that we are getting close to a deal with Iran. Because think about it, the spread on the 102 is coming down. We're at 41 basis points on the spread between the two. Well, what the hell does that mean, Kevin? That's too complicated. Why would that happen? Well, here's potentially why it could happen. Basically, the 10-year comes down. Okay, the 2-year stabilizes. What does that mean? When the 2-year stabilizes and the 10 comes down, well, that means you're flattening the yield curve. And to some extent, it's a slightly bullish flattening. What does that mean? Why does it happen? Well, in my opinion, it's happening because the longer term Treasury market is saying, okay, we're getting closer to a resolution with Iran. We're getting closer to peak, you know, CPI. Oil prices are close to peak. As all those things are close to peak, our inflation expectations can come down on the long run. But we still have the belief that in order to accomp or the belief that in order to accomplish this, we're going to have to stabilize Federal Reserve rates. So, the discount window rate is going to have to be higher for a little longer. And that's where the 2-year stays stable, but the 10 starts coming down. That actually flattens that curve, which is bullish. That is a good thing. So, I'm really happy to see this. Not just because I made this call that at 527 we're at peak, which obviously everybody wants to be right, but regardless of whether this was peaking at 550 and I was wrong or it's peaking where I said and it's right, the point is the direction is right and to me it's signaling that this deal is getting closer between the 20th and the 27th. Now, the problem that we have is tomorrow we have a CPI read that's a little bit of a crapshoot. Now, we talked about this in uh our alpha membership in terms of uh some some you know you know what what could end up playing out with the CPI report and I'm not going to go into all of that here but I'm going to give a little bit of a preview. You have a very bizarre CPI report tomorrow. I I have not seen a CPI forecast like this before and I don't really love it. I'll just put it that way. it increases the risk that leading up to the 20th to the 27th, we potentially have a little bit more of a headache to get through. So, it's just the setup right now between now and the 20th isn't the most ideal. Even though underlying economic data, mostly because of AI, still holding up. Like, if you didn't see this morning's ADP numbers, the ADP numbers this morning were fantastic. Uh now in fairness, those are still last week of September numbers, so they're a little bit on the older side in terms of data. Uh we get our first week of October next Tuesday, but almost nobody pays attention to the weekly ADP numbers. I like to what I've actually seen is we just had a revision. So we came in at 24.75K per week, which is great. A lot of that, you know, because of AI construction and otherwise, but uh the prior read of 23.75 was actually revised up to 25.25. So, it's pretty bullish. So, overall, this keeps me higher on the bearable bull scale. Now, as far as expectations for CPI, and you can kind of make with this what you want, but take a look at this. If you look at this, this is what's expected on the month overmonth CPI level. This is what's expected on the month-over-month core. This makes it really hard to win tomorrow because even if you have a low headline number, people want this to win. And if this is 6, it's bad. So basically like think about this for a moment. You know, over 6 is bad. Okay? At 6 is bad. And even at 0.5 it's still bad, right? Like all of those numbers are bad. That's not good. Uh, and then over here, you've anchored the core so damn low. In order to make people happy, you'd have to be like 0.1 or 0. Dude, the expectations for tomorrow's CPI report just suck. So, uh, they do create some challenges and risks for us between now and frankly the Iran deal. Now obviously if there's no Iran deal we've got massive problems in this market uh because that means the tenure is going to have to potentially rise even more. Now there is talk that we are of course becoming less reliant on Iran but which is fair with our shuttling operation our uh escorts but I do think in the long term you know Iran's going to do whatever they can to get that leverage back. Uh, in fact, that's the argument that CSIS makes that the post-war threat to Gulf War energy infrastructure is what we should pay attention to and that the strongest weapon of Thran has been its ability to weaponize the straight of Hormuz. And they're likely to try to do whatever they can to disrupt future oil pipelines as well. But there is good news in this. The more pipelines we have in the future with potentially an additional four million barrels of oil of export capacity by the end of 27 or another seven million by the end of 28, the more we have these pipelines. Not only the potential not only that we have even more oil exports out of the Middle East, but the more diversified our oil exports are to whether the Red Sea or the Mediterranean Sea or elsewhere. And that is really bullish because now you're diversifying that risk that used to concentrate in the straight of Hormuz to many different oil pipelines. Oil pipelines are obviously still subject to attack as we saw in Saudi Arabia, but you don't have sailors on them who end up dying. uh a lot of these pipelines are buried and so it's really the uh fueling or the either the concentrating or the pumping stations uh that you have to uh target which potentially are easier to defend but they also more diversified. Best case scenario you have a deal but uh pipelines are as they mentioned here particularly valuable because they increase the number of options for exports making total supply disruption difficult. This is actually really bullish because there have been, you know, people that used to comment and I don't see them comment that much anymore, but I used to see people comment. They're like, "Oh, wait. Dr. P says that the Iranians are going to become a superpower in the Middle East." I get it that right in the middle of the war when the United States is on its back foot, people go, "Oh, the United States is failing. They're getting shown up by Iran." And you know what? It was probably a mistake to to, you know, attack Iran. It was probably a mistake to just rip up the JCPOA without having a replacement. But that's all in the past. Now, the US was, in fairness, on a back foot this summer, uh, well, probably more like April, you know, we in March, so spring. So, we weren't really doing that well. Now though we are in a much stronger position where not only do we have this naval blockade that's actually functioning with the economic sanctions the blockade of uh cargo uh that is uh being shipped within uh so I guess it's not technically carbo cargo right cuz cargo goes on a ship but shipments go on trucks and then yeah it's weird anyway um but you've got this challenge for getting trucks into and out of uh Iran whether through the uh Pakistani borders or Afghanistan or Iraq. Uh that's problematic for their supply chains. And there's even been talk that the Ayatollah has suggested their supply chains are being affected. So that was either in the journal or let's see here it is. Yeah, here it is. Iran's Supreme Leader praised the work of rebuilding their missile and drone facilities but acknowledged supply chain related struggles in early September. comments linked to the IRGC. This is uh a recognition that so far the United States and its strategy is functioning against Iran better than it ever has before. And I'm not trying to give credit to a politician and I'm a big fan of bagging on all politicians. Uh but I do think that Trump has finally gotten the United States in the best possible position for negotiating with Iran. And so this this idea that Iran is going to become a superpower, I think is is uh overblown. I think that's an easy thing to say when when they were a little bit, you know, when they had gained the lead there for a little bit. But I don't think that's going to be the long run outcome. I think a lot of Gulf countries are very pissed off at this disaster. I don't think they want Iran to have nukes. I think they're tired of getting attacked by Iran. And diversifying away and securing their infrastructure is exactly what they want to do. when it actually makes the entire Gulf region more resilient in the long term and probably in the long term brings oil prices down even more. So it actually wouldn't surprise me that you could have this convergence uh of multiple disinflationary factors in the future where you end up with you know oil prices coming down substantially. You end up getting artificial intelligence le deflation which which comes after the infrastructure buildout. Right. uh as well as hopefully oil prices down, AI down, some form of interest rate relief. These are all things that lower costs for consumers and businesses and otherwise. All these things can sort of converge uh into interest rates coming down, which is not only great for real estate, but it's great for stocks. It's great for the economy. It's great overall without the fear that the Federal Reserve has to fight inflation. And by betting long on the economy, you're somehow fighting the Fed, right? Uh so all of that together sets us up for where we stand today. Some of the uncertainty that we've had over the weekend, which makes sense. I mean, Kevin did, after all, go on vacation. We're back now, so we, you know, let's get through CPI and we should be good. Uh but uh I'm optimistic. I set a threshold for uh where we would consider buying the dip uh in the alpha membership. So, if you're not part of that yet, make sure to check that out over at you can just go to meet Kevin.com. It's always the easy one. Uh, and that also aligns with if you want the free daily digest, you can get the free daily digest by going to meet Kevin.com/digest and you get uh some price targets that I that we've talked about the daily wealth, the daily digest on videos that have been posted. Get that for free. Just sign up here meet.com/digest. Put your email in. Make sure you go to spam and because it like your first email will likely go to spam. Mark it is not spam. do the little recapture and then you'll be on the list and you'll get that daily email which is kind of cool and uh yeah we'd love to see you there. So that's that. Uh one other thing to note uh is that the Federal Reserve you know one of the things that is very unique about their situation is that they are recognizing that they have to hike rates because of geopolitical issues and surging AI related investments. The problem is the Fed can't control either of those things. So they know they are hiking at the risk of the labor market rolling over to control things that they can't control. So I think there's a massive desperation to get rates down or to stop needing to hike. And the best thing that could do that is a deal before the next Fed meeting. That makes that 20th to 27th window look really glorious. And I think the way things are setting up publicly, we are almost perfectly aligning with exactly that. Uh so I'm optimistic about that. I know not everybody is, but but I I maintain my optimism on that and uh I'm very excited about that. So Scott says, "Sounds like a reverse vulkering." Well, that's interesting. This idea that Vulkar had to get credibility. So I don't know. Is it though? Because remember Vulkar had to raise rates aggressively to gain credibility to deal with unanchored inflation expectations. In fairness, inflation expectations were rising recently until uh Kevin Worsh put the pants on. Kevin Worsh put the pants on by hiking. Uh but I actually think they might end up being one and done. That's why I'm looking at that KHI market. But you know, if we if we get a bad CPI tomorrow, uh you know, that's that's going to be a very volatile uh cowi bet. So, I don't know. Maybe maybe I need to start setting trade alerts for for my KHI bets. [laughter] Yet another feature of Reinvest One. Is is that what you what I'm hearing Kevin? Are you going to add even more features to the reinvest van V? Uh big fan by the way of Boston. Um specifically Cambridge area and uh you know close to the river sort of that northwestern portion of Boston and uh Salem was fun although too crowded this time of the year but uh big fan. We had a great great flight over. I I wasn't very optimistic about basic economy in uh in American Airlines, but it actually both of our flights were actually pretty damn good. So, we enjoyed them. I got a lot of research done. Lauren got a lot of sleep in, which is good, especially when you had seven kids. But anyway, Alpha membership, trade portfolio alerts, uh reinvest stocks, the whole reinvest terminal coming out at the end of the year. Reinvest homes, the reinvest research, that's part of the research terminal. Really exciting. all the nine courses, every course member live stream, uh, Agentic AI for consumers and Agentic AI for business also coming at the beginning of the year. I can't wait to see you there. Join us over at meet.com. If you got any questions, you can always email us at staff@reinvest one.com. Thanks for being here. We'll see you in the next video. >> If you like that video, check this one out. I think you're going to love it. Why not advertise these [music] things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. >> We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. >> Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. >> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst and YouTuber. [music] Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.