Kevin Paffrath

Elon Musk: Eventually, the @tesla #roadster will be the ONLY manually driven car Tesla makes.

Elon Musk, "uhhh, success isn't guaranteed" tonight. "It'll probably work." #roadster

I think this #roadster event is really good marketing for the merger of $SPCX and $TSLA - might be the purpose too.

Elon Musk opens up #roadster even with "we need an audience to prove this event isn't AI or SI" This is "better than any James Bond car"

The Tesla Roadster Event LIVE w/ Meet Kevin [Elon Musk Reveal!] https://t.co/WBogw5b45L

The Iran window opens TUESDAY. ✅ Houthis say they fired missiles at Riyadh's airport Monday. ✅ Brent ~$106 Thursday, about flat. ➡️ Production is intact, so the market shrugs. ➡️ Markets only pay for barrels actually lost. ✅ Everything's been tried except a deal on Hormuz, per Goldman's desk. ➡️ Yep. That's the release valve. 😇 If we get a deal with Iran, October 20th to 27th is the window. ✅ The Fed meets Oct 27-28. ➡️ A deal first lets the Fed look through war inflation. ➡️ No deal? October & December hikes are both live. ➡️ IMO the deal is already sitting on Trump's desk. 😇 It's time to actually have the balls to sign this deal with Ira…

Your gym is SCARED of AI. ✅ Planet Fitness fell 9.45% in one day in September. ✅ Same day: NYT -7.2%. Schwab, Allstate & Intuit down 3.9% to 6.1%. ➡️ That's Goldman's "consumer inertia" basket. ➡️ The fear: AI agents find the cancel button for you. ➡️ An agent can shop 40 insurance quotes before you find your login. ➡️ So "they'll forget to cancel" gets a LOT harder as a business model. 😇 You know what I actually think is going to be a huge beneficiary of investing in artificial intelligence? Netflix. ➡️ Why? Agents cancel the stuff you forget about. You don't forget Netflix. 😇 We are willing to pay for good entertainment ✅ Netflix just cu…

Gold popped ~1.8% Thursday. I don't care! My next gold peak: sometime between 2033 & 2035. Gold peaks 3 to 5 years after the money printer turns on, & Warsh isn't printing. Bearish since Jan 30! https://t.co/sfUxsC26Zi More at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

More at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

$TSM's 2027 worry? The price of YOUR next phone. ✅ Record profit, up 68.7% in a year. ✅ Q4 revenue guided UP ~14% from Q3. ✅ CEO on AI demand: "extremely robust," "no sign of a slowdown." ✅ Yet: "we are being prudent in our business planning going into 2027." ✅ His reason: rising component prices are hitting price-sensitive gadgets. ➡️ Translation: pricey memory is squeezing phones & PCs. ✅ JPMorgan says the same: PC costs are up on memory. ✅ The stock still fell Thursday. ➡️ I've said memory peaked in 2026. ➡️ When memory gets cheaper, Apple, AMD & Nvidia WIN! ➡️ That's the hardware recovery I'm waiting for. More at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

🚨 The retail sales "beat" was almost ENTIRELY gas. Gas stations +6.4% in ONE month. Ex-gas: just +0.2%. The control group MISSED: +0.1% vs 0.3% expected. People paid more at the pump. Real shopping barely moved! https://t.co/A4vlsd9egx More at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

🚨 $TSLA reveals the Roadster tonight at 5:55 PM PT. Warsh speaks at 8:30 PM PT. Same night! Does this mean we are about to ROCKET SHIP?! https://t.co/mPQ8dI9pLA More at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

HOLY KAMOLY! $QQQ low this morning? $715.43. We said “buy the dip on $715 bounce”!!! Sent heads up and sent alert when we bought! IMO somebody got liquidated & hardware is a buy-the-dip opportunity. -bought 6 figures worth https://t.co/ezr530hKYr Portfolio Transparency Alerts at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

We’re all about to meet The Great Leofold the Second. Leveraged Hedgie Liquidation #2 of 2026 🤣

🚨 $CRWV credit default swaps JUST hit ~1,000 bps. Implies about a 63% chance of default within 5 years, vs ~30% a year ago! -not great Via Bloomberg: https://t.co/EAaPVL7Hdv

Goldman BLEW its inflation call. ✅ January: core PCE at 2.3% by August. ✅ Actual: 3.0%. ➡️ That misses their own number by about 30%. ✅ Biggest culprit, per their own post-mortem? AI. ➡️ The biggest story in markets. Missed in their own forecast. ✅ Computer software prices rising for the first time since 1998, per Rabobank. ✅ Daly: "These hyperscalers aren't very interest rate-sensitive." 😇 They hike for oil or AI. They don't actually stop oil prices or AI. ✅ Goldman's new call: mostly temporary. Core PCE ~2.2% by end of 2027. ➡️ Same desk that had 2.3% by August. I'll wait for proof. 🚨 Iran energy was about 0.3 points of the miss too. Oil…

Agentic AI use burns 5x the tokens humans do, per Andreessen Horowitz. imo, that's going to 10-100x very soon. https://t.co/DrZLXdJ6BV

Memory is cracking. ✅ Goldman's memory basket: -9.3% in one week. ✅ AI semis: -6.7% the same week. ✅ Micron broke under $1,000 Monday. 😇 I'm bearish memory and the memory cycle. ✅ China's CXMT: 10% of global DRAM revenue in Q2, per Counterpoint. ✅ Targeting 15%. ➡️ Basically, memory is a commodity. More supply, lower prices. ➡️ So who wins when memory gets cheap? Apple, AMD, Nvidia. 😇 Until you get an Iran deal, hardware is probably going to suck wind. 🚨 If Washington blocks Chinese DRAM, the shortage could last. ✅ SK Group's chairman says maybe until 2030.

🚨 PPI INFLATION came in at DOUBLE expectations this morning. So yields should be going up. Instead, the 10-year FELL about 10 bps & $TLT is up, forming a bottom ~$78! MY take? Fear of the AI-money-suck ($140b in 10 days of raising..) is getting people to buy a risk free 5%! https://t.co/R6wEJZX5Up ✅ September PPI: +1.3% vs 0.6% expected. ✅ Biggest jump since March 2022. 😇 80% of this increase fuel, baby, 50% gasoline. ✅ Retail sales control group: 0.1% vs 0.3% expected. ➡️ Strip out gas and the consumer is cooling. ✅ The 10-year still FELL about 10 bps. 😇 5.27 was going to be the top in the 10-year Treasury yield. ✅ Anthropic Q3 rev…

BREAKING: X is coming for Youtube. X is now offering $5,000 to post 15 videos on X in 30 days. Wow! https://t.co/B7iUo1h23q

Buy.

*The Critical Release of the PPI & Retail Sales Report* FED RATES https://t.co/myhctEK8Pi

Workers are F**ked. Paychecks are disappearing. Again. ✅ Real hourly earnings: -0.5% in September alone. ✅ -0.7% over the past year [BLS]. 😇 The workers are getting crushed. ✅ Fed Beige Book: high-income households drove spending in over half of districts. ✅ Five districts: firms trimming hiring after investing in AI. ✅ Netflix cutting ~1,000 jobs. About 6% of staff. 😇 Companies will make more money, but people will make even less money. 😇 Layoffs are probably going to be the Grim Reaper that kills this party. ➡️ So far, layoffs are still getting absorbed. ➡️ Jobless claims Thursday morning tell us if that holds.

Is $TLT about to MOON?!? ✅ 10-year hit 5.33% Wednesday morning on the print. ✅ Closed near 5.19%. Right back at Tuesday's level. ✅ 2-year held ~4.80%. ✅ 10-2 spread: under 40 bps. ➡️ Basically, bonds read it as a slowdown. ✅ Goldman: long yields 40 to 50 bps above fair value. ✅ Their year-end 10-year call: 4.75%. ➡️ My 5.27% peak call from Sept 29: one morning above it, then back under. 😇 So, the more people get nervous about hardware, the more TLT actually confirms its bottom. 😇 I actually think bonds go burr on an Iran deal. TLT goes burr on an Iran deal. 🚨 Goldman flags unresolved energy risk. One more hit on Saudi oil and 5.33% comes …

CPI came in HOT. ✅ 0.6% in ONE month. 3.7% for the year. ✅ Core 0.3% and 2.6%. Both above forecast. ✅ Gas up 9.1% in a month. Over half the jump. ➡️ Half of all categories now running over 3%. ➡️ That's the line Warsh keeps bringing up. 😇 Like even if you win, you're still a loser. ✅ October hike odds: 22% before the print. 49% right after. ✅ About 33% by Wednesday afternoon. ➡️ PPI and retail sales Thursday morning. ➡️ Hot again and October is back on. 😇 The Iran deal just became more important because inflation's just not receding on its own.

https://t.co/eHZkKawcsZ

🚨 Anthropic: 45% revenue increase vs Q2. Honestly, very impressive!

Market sees a 66% chance of NO rate hike in October, despite hot CPI. -is something breaking? https://t.co/L9CtXfuNOM 🚨 🚨 Use code MeetKevin when you sign up for Kalshi, and get $25 when you make your first trade! https://t.co/dqvM3duY9L 🚨 🚨 (Paid Sponsor)

why the market just tanked

So, what the hell is going on in the stock market today? Because this is a little weird. Well, honestly, the market seems to be pricing in some more growth fears as well as the Fed Beige book that just came out. But the Fed Beige Book and what happened in the Treasury market doesn't necessarily entirely align until you really look beneath the surface at okay, what's what's really cooking over here and why are people starting to get nervous? So, let's try to break this down and understand exactly what's going on. So, first the beige book. Okay, obviously we had a CPI report this morning that was not as ideal. You had Goulsby calling it discour…

Fed is starting to notice AI can cause job loss. ➡️ Not in highly skilled. ➡️ Maybe not in long-term. ➡️ But short term? AI might offset the need to hire. ➡️ ➡️ Reduced staffing ➡️ ➡️ Delayed hiring ➡️ ➡️ Less job creation Might dampen their desire to hike. https://t.co/rcxfuuX2UV