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Open original source ↗Rates at 5%. The Fed is hiking. And America's biggest banks just said the consumer is FINE.
Card losses FELL at JPMorgan, Wells Fargo AND Citi. Come on, man. People spend until they lose their jobs.
✅ Tuesday's earnings: JPMorgan's card charge-offs fell to 2.91% from 3.15%. Wells Fargo: 3.73% from 4.02%. Citi: 3.6% from 4.0%.
✅ Citi's US card spending is up 11%. Wells Fargo's CEO: "Consumers are spending more, loan delinquencies are low."
✅ Goldman's math on 5% yields: about 0.2 points off 2027 growth. The economy still grows near 2.3%.
😇 The consumer is going to keep spending as long as they have jobs and I don't see consumers losing jobs anytime soon.
😇 Spending is a part of our culture.
➡️ So the number that matters is NOT the 10-year. It's the jobs canary.
✅ Goldman's catch: about half of small business debt is variable-rate. They feel every hike right away.
🚨 The risk: Dimon says one more point of rates would really hurt borrowers. If rates stay here, Goldman says the drag more than doubles.
➡️ Bottom line: watch jobs, not yields. The consumer quits when the paycheck quits.