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Goldman says stocks go up 10% in 2027. Read the fine print: the WHOLE call leans on the 10-year falling to 4.4%. The bull case and the rate call are the SAME bet. ✅ Goldman's strategists: stocks edge higher into year end and rise about 10% in 2027. Their caveat: stable rates could cap it. ✅ Goldman's base case has the 10-year easing from about 5.3% to 4.4% by the end of 2027. It sits around 5.2% on Tuesday. ✅ Goldman's wealth math: flat stocks through 2027 would cost consumer spending growth just under half a point. ➡️ So the market is a spending engine, not a scoreboard. ✅ Deutsche Bank's survey of 460 pros: their average guess for the 10-year's PEAK is 5.70%. ➡️ The crowd says yields go UP first. Goldman's bull case needs them DOWN. Somebody is wrong. ➡️ My read: the oil and rate shocks are already priced. A deal on Iran pulls the 10-year down. ✅ Tuesday: the New York Fed's Williams said one more hike may be appropriate this year, and he sees no need for any in 2027. 🚨 The risk: a hot CPI print Wednesday morning. Consensus is 3.7%. Beat that and last week's 5.35% high gets tested. "10% in 2027" turns into "flat". ➡️ Bottom line: bullish stocks means bullish bonds. 4.4% is still ridiculously hot, but the direction echoes Williams: NO hikes needed in 2027!
Library as of 2026-10-22