Ming-Chi Kuo

Companies used to handling market expectations tend to play it safe with their quarterly guidance during product transitions, unless they’re sure about the new product ramp-up and how smoothly the transition will go. 對管理市場預期比較有經驗的公司，在面對產品轉換的季度時，除非對新產品量產與轉換效率有信心，否則通常都會用比較謹慎的態度提供指引。

Apple is a consumer electronics company whose current products and services have no significant connection to national security, so why is it persistently and publicly targeted by Trump? 1. Pressuring high-profile targets amplifies publicity. Forcing Apple, the world's most famous company, and its iconic iPhone to adopt "Made in America" policies generates maximum exposure and reinforces Trump’s ongoing narrative. 2. Selecting a target reluctant to oppose or retaliate. Apple is reluctant to openly contest Trump’s statements or mount significant opposition, meaning minimal risk for Trump to continuously apply pressure. 3. Leveraging any out…

Apple是消費性電子公司，其目前產品與服務與國家安全無重大關聯，但該公司為何會被川普持續針對？ 1. 施壓高知名度目標可放大宣傳效果 迫使全球最知名的公司 (Apple) 與家喻戶曉的產品 (iPhone) 落實「美國製造」政策，宣傳效果極佳，並強化川普一直以來的主張。 2. 選擇不願反對與報復的對象，降低施壓風險 Apple不願公然反對川普的言論，也沒有報復本錢，意味著施壓風險極低，故川普可放心持續施壓。 3. 施壓成功與否都能受益 若Apple把iPhone組裝產線搬回美國，對川普而言絕對是宣揚「美國製造」的好機會，並將此列為重要政績。若Apple透過協議，讓川普暫時性不針對他們，代表川普也透過協議取得他想要的其他東西。等未來有宣傳「美國製造」的需要時，再針對Apple並用關稅課徵施壓。

Here are a few additional points: 1. The specific tariff percentage Trump proposes on iPhones isn’t the main concern. The bigger issue is that this is Trump’s second recent pointed comment targeting Apple—a warning sign Apple can’t ignore. 2. Apple’s top priority in negotiations with Trump should be finding ways to avoid, delay, or prevent higher iPhone tariffs. For example, Apple could adjust its DEI policies to secure Trump’s temporary commitment to hold off on targeting them. 3. Moving all iPhone assembly for US models back to the US before Trump’s term ends is unrealistic, and Trump also opposes Apple producing iPhone US models in Indi…

補充幾個重點： 1. 川普宣稱將課徵多少iPhone關稅並非重點，重點這是川普近期第二次對Apple針對性的言論，此為Apple不容忽視的訊號。 2. 如何避免、延緩川普iPhone關稅或進一步調升，就是Apple現在要跟川普談判的首要重點。例如，Apple能否能藉由改變DEI政策，以換取川普暫時性的不針對他們。 3. 在川普卸任前，將所有iPhone美國機型的組裝產線搬回美國是不現實的，但川普又反對Apple在印度製造iPhone美國機型，故即便此次Apple與川普談成暫時性的協議以避免iPhone關稅，但在川普卸任前，難保Apple將時不時面臨關稅威嚇。

My industry research indicates the following regarding the new AI hardware device from Jony Ive's collaboration with OpenAI: 1. Mass production is expected to start in 2027. 2. Assembly and shipping will occur outside China to reduce geopolitical risks, with Vietnam currently the likely assembly location. 3. The current prototype is slightly larger than the AI Pin, with a form factor as compact and elegant as an iPod Shuffle. The design and specifications may change before mass production. 4. One of the intended use cases is wearing the device around the neck. 5. It will have cameras and microphones for environmental detection, with no displa…

我的產業調查指出，關於Jony Ive與OpenAI合作的新型態AI硬體裝置： 1. 預計將在2027年量產。 2. 將在非中國組裝與出貨，以降低地緣政治風險。目前預計在越南組裝。 3. 目前樣品的外觀體積略大於AI Pin，外關設計猶如iPod Shuffle般小巧精緻。上述設計與規格在量產前可能還會有變化。 4. 其中一個使用方式是將此裝置掛在脖子上。 5. 將配備相機與麥克風，可偵測外接環境，不具備顯示功能。 6. 預計需與手機跟PC連結，並利用手機與PC的運算與顯示功能。 我認為OpenAI選擇在此時官方公佈與Jony Ive的合作，其中一個目的可能是想轉移市場對剛結束的Google I/O之注意力。Google I/O演說中強調的Google生態與AI整合之優勢，是OpenAI現階段無法抗衡的，故OpenAI用不同的主題分散市場注意力。 但AI走入現實生活 (也就是所謂的實體/物理AI) 已是市場公認的下一個AI關鍵趨勢，Jony Ive與Open AI的合作成功與否仍需觀察，但這也反映上述趨勢。此合作也讓我想起Alan Kay的名言：People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware。

Apple's competitors in the large-sized foldable device market may not be limited to Huawei. My research indicates that Amazon is also internally developing a similar product, which has not yet officially kicked off. If development progresses as planned, it is projected to enter mass production in late 2026 or 2027. (Apple’s 18.8-inch foldable device is slated for mass production in late 2027 or 2028.)

Apple在大尺寸折疊裝置市場面對的競爭對手可能不只是華為。我的調查顯示Amazon內部也正在討論類似的產品，目前尚未正式開案，若開發順利則預計在2026年底或2027年量產 (Apple的18.8吋折疊產品預計在2027年底或2028年量產)。

The production target for Huawei's latest large-sized 18-inch foldable device, the MateBook Fold, is projected to be between 180,000 and 200,000 units. Its final sales performance, product lifecycle, and potential for a successor will largely depend on user feedback, particularly regarding software experience. Hardware-wise, The Huawei MateBook Fold's key selling points are its display size, resolution, weight, and thickness. Compared to competitors such as Lenovo's ThinkPad X1 Fold and Asus's Zenbook 17 Fold OLED, it offers a larger, higher-resolution display while maintaining a thinner, lighter form factor.

華為最新的18吋大尺寸折疊裝置MateBook Fold之生產目標預計為18-20萬部，但最終銷售結果、產品週期壽命與是否有下一代產品，則需視用戶反饋而定，特別是軟體體驗。 華為的MateBook Fold硬體的最大賣點是螢幕尺寸與解析度、重量與厚度。MateBook Fold的尺寸與螢幕解析度高於競爭對手 (如聯想的ThinkPad X1 Fold與華碩的Zenbook 17 Fold OLED)，但外觀設計更輕薄。

Recent Updates on Nvidia Hardware: HGX B300 NVL8, DGX Spark, and N1X AI PCs/Laptops 1. HGX B300 NVL8: About two weeks ago, Nvidia transitioned from HGX B300 NVL16 to NVL8 to meet the demand for faster GPU-to-GPU interconnects required by latest LLMs with sparse MoE architectures, such as DeepSeek and LLAMA4. Both NVL8 and NVL16 feature 16 GPU dies, but NVL8 integrates two GPU dies per package, connected via Nvidia’s high-bandwidth interface (NV-HBI), delivering bi-directional bandwidth of up to 10 TB/s. Compared to the NVL16, whose GPU dies communicate only through NVLink, the NVL8’s NV-HBI is far better suited to sparse MoE workloads. Thi…

近期Nvidia硬體產品更新：HGX B300 NVL8、DGX Spark與N1X AI PC/筆電 1. HGX B300 NVL8： Nvidia在約兩週前，將HGX B300 NVL16改為NVL8，原因是最新LLM支援的稀疏MoE架構 （如：DeepSeek, LLAMA4等)，要求GPU之間更快的互連速度。 NVL8與NVL16都是16個GPU die，相比於NVL16是每個晶片封裝1個GPU die，NVL8是每個晶片封裝兩個GPU die，且兩個GPU die之間支援雙向連結、傳輸速度達10 TB/s的NV-HBI (Nvidia high bandwidth interface)。相較NVL16 GPU die之間僅能透過NVLink溝通，支援NV-HBI的NVL8更能滿足稀疏MoE架構需求。 因HGX B300從NVL16改成NVL8，故未來Nvidia幾乎都會採用CoWoS-L。GB與HGX架構AI晶片採用同樣封裝方式，有利於Nvidia供應鏈管理。 2. DGX Spark & N1X： GX Spark採用GB10晶片，晶片預計在6-7月量產，終端裝置組裝大量出貨預計為8-9月。 N1X是Nvidia的Windows on ARM處理器，基本上與GB10的架構相似，但因N1X是筆電方案且支援Windows，故需投入更多資源最佳化軟體，以提升效能與穩定性，這也影響了終端裝置組裝的大量出貨時程。 目前市場傳言N1X筆電有可能會延後到2026年，但…

The following statement by Apple’s senior vice president of services, Eddy Cue, implies that Google search and advertising business are facing potential threats from generative AI (GenAI): Cue noted that searches on Safari dipped for the first time last month, which he attributed to people using AI. Source: https://t.co/EaOXK65zRv Many people view the continued growth of Google's advertising business as evidence that its search services have not been impacted by GenAI. However, this view could be mistaken for the following reasons: 1. GenAI service providers have not launched advertising businesses, so Google Ads remains the best choice for…

Apple服務高階副總裁Eddy Cue的以下說法，意味著Google關鍵字搜尋與廣告業務正面臨來自GenAI (生成式IA) 潛在威脅： Cue noted that searches on Safari dipped for the first time last month, which he attributed to people using AI. 來源： https://t.co/EaOXK65zRv 很多人把Google廣告業務持續成長，視為Google搜尋服務沒有被GenAI服務影響的證據。但這種想法有可能是錯的，因為： 1. GenAI服務商並沒有推出廣告業務，故Google廣告目前仍是網路廣告主的最佳選擇。 2. 搜尋次數需要下滑到某個程度，才會影響到廣告業務。因此Google廣告業務並沒有因為GenAI服務而立刻衰退。 Yahoo!廣告業務的成長至衰退的歷史就是一個好例子。Yahoo!的廣告業務從1995年開始，每年持續成長至2008年後才開始衰退。而Google成立於1998年，並於2000年開始廣告業務 (Google AdWords)，在1998-2000，Yahoo!仍是網路廣告主最佳的選擇，而Google開始廣告業務後，Yahoo!的廣告業務也沒有立刻衰退。

Super Micro (SMCI) Q3 FY2025 earnings call confirms my earlier prediction. The company's financial forecast for Q4 FY2025 (2Q25) came in below market consensus, validating my prediction that this quarter’s results will stay under pressure. Another key point is the significant decrease in visibility for the future outlook in SMCI's Q3 FY2025 earnings call vs. Q3 FY2024 (e.g., the former expressed strong confidence for 4Q24, while the latter only provided visibility through 3Q25). Although SMCI is not a first-tier AI server assembly manufacturer, its 2H25 shipments are mostly Blackwell-based, so its 2H25 outlook offers better insight into the …

美超微 (SMCI) 2025財年第三季法說驗證了我先前的預測。該公司對2025財年第四季 (2Q25) 的財務預測低於市場共識，驗證了我先前「本季度財報繼續承壓」的預測。 另一個值得注意的是，與2024財年第三季的法說比較，SMCI在2025財年第三季的法說中，對未來展望的能見度是明顯下降的 (如：前者對4Q24充滿信心 vs. 後者僅展望到3Q25)。雖然SMCI非一線AI伺服器組裝廠商，但因為該公司在2H25的出貨方案幾乎都是Blackwell，所以比起1H25，該公司對2H25的展望更能反映AI伺服器產業的前景。

2H25-2H27 New iPhone Model Launch Predictions; Budget Models in 1H, Premium Models in 2H as Emerging Norm https://t.co/OOsUbPlrBd https://t.co/UA4MF0rUMR

2H25-2H27 新款iPhone機型發布預測；上半年發布低階款，下半年發布高階款將成為常態 https://t.co/AMVVI5rVBX https://t.co/ToBiuQkPaS

@twtechinsights Apple過去幾年動作很慢，因為壓力不大。不過有開始總比沒開始好

From the latest earnings call, Apple expects that the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. in 2Q25 will have India as their country of origin. This trend aligns with my earlier prediction that India will exclusively manufacture and export iPhones to the U.S. market starting in 2Q25. Why did Apple say 'majority'? Because some of the iPhones that will be sold in the U.S. market in 2Q25 were made in China in 1Q25.

在最新的財務會議上，Apple預計2Q25在美國銷售的大多數iPhone之原產國為印度。此趨勢與我先前預測的「印度自2Q25開始將獨家製造並出口iPhone至美國市場」一致。 至於為什麼Apple說「大多數」？因為預計在2Q25美國市場銷售的iPhone，部分來自1Q25在中國提前生產。

At Least Three 2H25 New iPhone 17 Models to Feature 12GB DRAM; Micron and SK Hynix Stand to Benefit Most from Apple’s More Aggressive DRAM Upgrade Strategy https://t.co/r2WQQ1ZU84 https://t.co/sQnxMQceeu

This CNBC report may suggest that tariff risks for Apple could escalate significantly, making the entire situation highly unpredictable. 1. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s official statement, as reported by CNBC, indicates that the U.S. government’s plan to use tariff negotiations to pressure U.S. partners into restricting trade with China is likely underway. 2. If such “restrictions on trade with China” involve urging other countries to raise their tariffs on Chinese goods, the potential risks for Apple would rise sharply. 3. If only the U.S. imposes high tariffs on Chinese imports, the risks are manageable. However, if other countries…

CNBC的這篇報導可能意味著關稅對Apple的潛在風險可能將大幅升級，並讓一切變得無法預測。 1. 中國商務部會有CNBC報導中的正式聲明，代表美國政府計劃利用關稅談判向美國夥伴施壓以要求與中國限制交易一事，可能正在進行中。 2. 所謂限制與中國交易，若是美國要求其他國家也提高對中國的關稅，則Apple面對的潛在風險大幅提升。 3. 若只有美國對中國進口課高關稅，雖有風險但一切仍可控。若有其他國家也提高對中國商品的關稅，則代表Apple需建更多非中國的iPhone產線，來滿足美國以外的更多市場需求，意味著Apple面對的關稅風險將無法衡量且完全失控。 https://t.co/k5VwGzLzg9

TSMC’s earnings call today was packed with information. In my earlier estimates, I calculated that the company’s U.S. fabs would lower TSMC’s overall gross margin by about 1.5 to 2 percentage points, based on its U.S. capacity allocation and gross margin (see details in the original post below). But what TSMC said today went further: factoring in gross margin dilution from its U.S. fabs, it’s now guiding for long-term gross margins to stay above 53% (vs. 1Q25 58.8%). That’s a bigger hit than I had anticipated, mainly because TSMC is also accounting for inflation and tariff-related costs. What does this mean? TSMC just gave the market a cle…

台積電今天的法說，資訊量龐大。 我在先前的計算中，根據美國產能佔比與毛利率，推算美國廠對台積電整體毛利率之影響是減少1.5-2% (推論細節見下面原文)。 但台積電今天的說法是，考慮到美國廠對毛利率的稀釋，長期毛利率展望是維持在53%以上 (vs. 1Q25是58.8%)，負面影響高於我先前的推估，原因在於台積電還考慮了通膨跟關稅造成的成本。 這代表什麼意思？台積電幫大家示範，通膨跟關稅對毛利率潛在的影響該如何計算。如果要把這邏輯套用在其他廠商，還要先考慮到台積電是有能力對客戶漲價的。 開玩笑的講 (但要嚴肅面對)，台積電可能不小心又幫其他公司開法會了。

TSMC made it clear in today’s earnings call that it has no plans for any joint ventures or technology transfers. That’s exactly why I said earlier that all those market rumors were just “brainstorming” (a word I’m probably the only one who’s ever used to describe market rumors).

台積電在今天法說中強調，沒有跟人合資或技術移轉的規劃，這就是為何我之前說市場相關謠傳都是「腦力激盪」 (我可能是唯一用腦力激盪這個詞來形容市場相關傳言的人)。

Amid tariff uncertainties and growing fears of a 2H25 recession, two things could help restore confidence among tech investors: strong visibility into 2025 orders and growth, or compelling new trends with broad market support. TSMC and Tesla represent the former and latter, respectively. As such, their post-earnings stock performance will serve as a key indicator of near-term investor sentiment. 1. TSMC: TSMC continues to show solid growth momentum heading into 2Q25, with its full-year guidance for 2025 left unchanged. In the tech sector, few companies match TSMC’s order visibility and competitive edge—not even major clients like Apple or Nv…