2025-05-07XQuote

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Super Micro (SMCI) Q3 FY2025 earnings call confirms my earlier prediction. The company's financial forecast for Q4 FY2025 (2Q25) came in below market consensus, validating my prediction that this quarter’s results will stay under pressure. Another key point is the significant decrease in visibility for the future outlook in SMCI's Q3 FY2025 earnings call vs. Q3 FY2024 (e.g., the former expressed strong confidence for 4Q24, while the latter only provided visibility through 3Q25). Although SMCI is not a first-tier AI server assembly manufacturer, its 2H25 shipments are mostly Blackwell-based, so its 2H25 outlook offers better insight into the AI server industry’s prospects than 1H25.

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Let’s take a quick look at Super Micro’s (SMCI) preliminary results. Long story short: this quarter’s numbers are likely to stay under pressure. AI servers currently split into three main types: ASICs (like Google TPU servers), Nvidia’s GB200/300 NVL72, and lower-end Nvidia servers (like the HGX series). Growth is mainly driven by ASICs and NVL72, mostly from CSP demand. In 1H25, SMCI’s shipments focus on Nvidia’s lower-end servers. Their key customers aren’t CSPs, and as I’ve noted before (https://t.co/9uI31hid9Y), they’re not a top-tier NVL72 assembler. So, SMCI’s preliminary results don’t reflect AI server industry trends—their product mix and customers aren’t representative. Still, the weak results will likely weigh on AI server supply chain sentiment short-term. SMCI mentioned delayed purchasing, likely due to the HGX Hopper-to-Blackwell transition, in my opinion. Plus, another delayed purchasing could hit this quarter from the B200-to-B300 shift. SMCI also noted an increase in older GPU inventory, which should refer to the Hopper series (including H20). Geopolitical factors could slow SMCI’s Hopper shipments, hurting this quarter’s results—unless Blackwell shipments scale up a lot.
mingchikuo ↗