Kevin Paffrath

Buy.

*The Critical Release of the PPI & Retail Sales Report* FED RATES https://t.co/myhctEK8Pi

Workers are F**ked. Paychecks are disappearing. Again. ✅ Real hourly earnings: -0.5% in September alone. ✅ -0.7% over the past year [BLS]. 😇 The workers are getting crushed. ✅ Fed Beige Book: high-income households drove spending in over half of districts. ✅ Five districts: firms trimming hiring after investing in AI. ✅ Netflix cutting ~1,000 jobs. About 6% of staff. 😇 Companies will make more money, but people will make even less money. 😇 Layoffs are probably going to be the Grim Reaper that kills this party. ➡️ So far, layoffs are still getting absorbed. ➡️ Jobless claims Thursday morning tell us if that holds.

Is $TLT about to MOON?!? ✅ 10-year hit 5.33% Wednesday morning on the print. ✅ Closed near 5.19%. Right back at Tuesday's level. ✅ 2-year held ~4.80%. ✅ 10-2 spread: under 40 bps. ➡️ Basically, bonds read it as a slowdown. ✅ Goldman: long yields 40 to 50 bps above fair value. ✅ Their year-end 10-year call: 4.75%. ➡️ My 5.27% peak call from Sept 29: one morning above it, then back under. 😇 So, the more people get nervous about hardware, the more TLT actually confirms its bottom. 😇 I actually think bonds go burr on an Iran deal. TLT goes burr on an Iran deal. 🚨 Goldman flags unresolved energy risk. One more hit on Saudi oil and 5.33% comes …

CPI came in HOT. ✅ 0.6% in ONE month. 3.7% for the year. ✅ Core 0.3% and 2.6%. Both above forecast. ✅ Gas up 9.1% in a month. Over half the jump. ➡️ Half of all categories now running over 3%. ➡️ That's the line Warsh keeps bringing up. 😇 Like even if you win, you're still a loser. ✅ October hike odds: 22% before the print. 49% right after. ✅ About 33% by Wednesday afternoon. ➡️ PPI and retail sales Thursday morning. ➡️ Hot again and October is back on. 😇 The Iran deal just became more important because inflation's just not receding on its own.

https://t.co/eHZkKawcsZ

🚨 Anthropic: 45% revenue increase vs Q2. Honestly, very impressive!

Market sees a 66% chance of NO rate hike in October, despite hot CPI. -is something breaking? https://t.co/L9CtXfuNOM 🚨 🚨 Use code MeetKevin when you sign up for Kalshi, and get $25 when you make your first trade! https://t.co/dqvM3duY9L 🚨 🚨 (Paid Sponsor)

Fed is starting to notice AI can cause job loss. ➡️ Not in highly skilled. ➡️ Maybe not in long-term. ➡️ But short term? AI might offset the need to hire. ➡️ ➡️ Reduced staffing ➡️ ➡️ Delayed hiring ➡️ ➡️ Less job creation Might dampen their desire to hike. https://t.co/rcxfuuX2UV

💀 Private credit shadow default rates have DOUBLED -per JPM https://t.co/ljm8Phb9Px

omg what's happening https://t.co/veiHwPR3TB

The perfect kind of selloff to get Trump to TACO on Iran. https://t.co/0CpkfJsqOp

*The Critical Release of the CPI Report* FED RATES https://t.co/TNZolhyMW5

Data centers are on the BALLOT. 35 times. And 21 of them are in ONE state. Ohio takes the CAKE baby at 21!!! 21 out of 35! ✅ BofA counts 35 local data center measures on November 3. None are statewide. 21 in Ohio, 7 in Illinois, 3 in Kansas. ✅ About half would ban facilities or cap them, often at 25 MW. Several Illinois questions and six in Ohio point the OTHER way: let them build. ✅ Pause or moratorium proposals also show up in 20 of the 36 governor races. ➡️ BofA's read: sequencing, not opposition. The money moves states. It does not stop. ➡️ Towns want the tax base and hate the power bill. Both are true. That's why it's on a ballot and n…

Goldman says stocks go up 10% in 2027. Read the fine print: the WHOLE call leans on the 10-year falling to 4.4%. The bull case and the rate call are the SAME bet. ✅ Goldman's strategists: stocks edge higher into year end and rise about 10% in 2027. Their caveat: stable rates could cap it. ✅ Goldman's base case has the 10-year easing from about 5.3% to 4.4% by the end of 2027. It sits around 5.2% on Tuesday. ✅ Goldman's wealth math: flat stocks through 2027 would cost consumer spending growth just under half a point. ➡️ So the market is a spending engine, not a scoreboard. ✅ Deutsche Bank's survey of 460 pros: their average guess for the 10-…

Tesla sold 486,532 cars last quarter with NO $7,500 tax credit. Last year's record quarter HAD the credit. Down 2%. That's not a demand collapse, baby. That's pricing power. ✅ Q3 deliveries: 486,532. Wall Street expected 461,974. A beat of about 24,600. ✅ Q3 last year: 497,099, a record, with buyers rushing to beat the credit's September 30 deadline. 😇 Numbers were actually fantastic because you are within 3 percent of last year's sales without a $7500 tax credit. That's actually incredible. ➡️ Everybody said demand would fall off a cliff when the credit died. Nope. Not even close. ✅ Production: 464,391. Deliveries beat production by about…

Everybody's yelling about Meta's $628 BILLION footnote. Google's footnote? $707 BILLION. Oops. ✅ Needham, via Zero Hedge: Meta shows $112 billion of debt and leases. The footnotes hold about $628 billion more. Count it and Meta gets 35% pricier. ✅ Alphabet's own filing: $707 billion of future fixed commitments at the end of June. ✅ Zero Hedge redid the math for Google. Enterprise value rises 21%, not the 3% Needham used. ✅ On that basis Google trades at 9.0x 2027 sales. Meta: 8.3x. Google is the pricier stock. ➡️ So the "Meta problem" is a Big Tech problem. Meta just has the most of it for its size. ➡️ Search is still about 53% of Alphabet'…

Rates at 5%. The Fed is hiking. And America's biggest banks just said the consumer is FINE. Card losses FELL at JPMorgan, Wells Fargo AND Citi. Come on, man. People spend until they lose their jobs. ✅ Tuesday's earnings: JPMorgan's card charge-offs fell to 2.91% from 3.15%. Wells Fargo: 3.73% from 4.02%. Citi: 3.6% from 4.0%. ✅ Citi's US card spending is up 11%. Wells Fargo's CEO: "Consumers are spending more, loan delinquencies are low." ✅ Goldman's math on 5% yields: about 0.2 points off 2027 growth. The economy still grows near 2.3%. 😇 The consumer is going to keep spending as long as they have jobs and I don't see consumers losing jobs…

🚨 The "sophisticated recording device" OpenAI discovered is available for $23.51. The Antenna they found is available for $0.50. https://t.co/2OcVFLUMFx

OpenAI discovered 1 recording device and calls the FBI. Imagine how many they haven't discovered yet. https://t.co/3fPqP570zz

Now, after the pause, add in: "You'll need to unlock your HomeView first."

Holy sh*t. The scariest sh*t is a partner at @Sequoia saying AI = obviously good for human connection, so let's buy a money-losing dating app with plummeting revenue for a 38% premium over its public value. The desperation to make deals is becoming a concerning top signal. https://t.co/ij6tivn3iu

Stocks Fall, Yields Fall, the $140b SUCKENING Returns https://t.co/eEB8a0aLG2

S&P 500 profits have two big PRETTY PADS (PP’s!) in ‘em. ✅ About $150B of Q2 "other income" was just marking up private AI stakes. That's ~12% of S&P EPS. ➡️ $AMZN booked $53.4B; mostly Anthropic ➡️ $GOOG booked a $77.1B; lots of $SPCX ➡️ Q2 earnings growth ~51%. 33% w/o AMZN/GOOG. ➡️ Tariff refunds added ~6% of pretax profits in Q2+Q3, post IEEPA. wild. Still well over 15% earnings growth YOY though when you subtract out some junk and conservatism. A lot of stocks starting to look cheap on multiples.

This doesn’t surprise me. Prediction markets are integrating into financial markets more and more. ➡️ Fed expectations ➡️ Inflation expectations ➡️ Iran-deal expectations I’m a fan. Example… I saw odds of 1 hike this year at 9%. Bet $90 and turned it into $180. Less about the money… more about the signal. So I bought the dip in the Q’s / hardware around the same time. Yes, my company is also sponsored by Kalshi, but this opinion above is my own. https://t.co/dqvM3duY9L Get $25 when you make your first $25 trade

We should be praying AI data centers keep growing. If they go, we all go. See construction below. And Warsh ain't going to help us back up. Powell took the money printer with him. https://t.co/PbGOCgMgag

On #Fed hikes..minutes revealed: "Participants pointed to "ongoing geopolitical developments" and "surging AI-related investments" as sources of inflation pressure" But Fed can’t touch either ➡️ Hike was solely to manipulate inflation expectations & declare Warsh isn’t a baby.

So what socialism stocks should we think about longing for the 2029 takeover? I’ll go first… ➡️ Solar

So let me get this straight… ➡️ Fed Waller wants to hike due to AI-induced inflation… ➡️ rates go up for everyone ➡️ richest companies sock cash into money markets ➡️ rich collect higher yield ➡️ poorer consumers pay it ➡️ rich don’t get constrained ➡️ rich keep spending…

🚨 WORTH KNOWING: Out of last 5 years, hedge funds had MORE exposure to stocks 98% of the time... aka low exposure.