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Open original source ↗Is $TLT about to MOON?!?
✅ 10-year hit 5.33% Wednesday morning on the print.
✅ Closed near 5.19%. Right back at Tuesday's level.
✅ 2-year held ~4.80%.
✅ 10-2 spread: under 40 bps.
➡️ Basically, bonds read it as a slowdown.
✅ Goldman: long yields 40 to 50 bps above fair value.
✅ Their year-end 10-year call: 4.75%.
➡️ My 5.27% peak call from Sept 29: one morning above it, then back under.
😇 So, the more people get nervous about hardware, the more TLT actually confirms its bottom.
😇 I actually think bonds go burr on an Iran deal. TLT goes burr on an Iran deal.
🚨 Goldman flags unresolved energy risk. One more hit on Saudi oil and 5.33% comes back.
➡️ Watch the 10-2. Under 40 and falling says a deal is getting close.