Jim Bianco

1/2 The U.S. 10-year yield has broken out of its 2+ year old symmetrical triangle. https://t.co/nsritzpjWj 2/2 Blow-up of the breakout. And note it "gapped" through the red line. https://t.co/TxuipTXFKO

Crashing .... *JAPAN 30-YEAR BOND YIELD RISES 26.5 BASIS POINTS TO 3.875% https://t.co/7prHVDupOd

1/11 What is Housing? Affordable shelter or path to retirement? It cannot be both. We tried to make it both in the early 2000s and almost wrecked the financial system. 🧵 https://t.co/ZvScYsClPh 2/11 The average home price is $417K (above), an all-time high. This means around 43% of a median household income (~$84K) goes to housing. For the last three years, this has been comparable to the (unsustainable) housing peak in 2006. https://t.co/c3s9b0bcBT 3/11 For 50 years, from the end of World War II through 1997 (red box), housing was affordable. Prices rose by the inflation rate. In other words, it held its value but remained withi…

@DREZDNN @EricBalchunas sure that was the bottom?

Downpayment assistance, of any kind, just gives home sellers room to raise prices and creates more housing inflation. The fix is more supply: get rid of restrictions (zoning laws, building regulations, land-use rules) that hold back construction.

He’s been saying exactly the same thing for over two months now. And we’re always perpetually a few weeks away from the announcement.

@Bolsa_es @EricBalchunas Follow-up, VZ reached inflation rates of over 1 million percentage circa 2018 to 2020. If you bought 1 VEF (the currency at the at time), you need 1 trillion VED (current version of the currency today) to breakeven. The IBVC is not close to up 1 trillion % the last 10 years.

Every recession/financial crisis changes the economy. Change is not worse, it different. It changed again post COVID (blue) and inflation has avg 4.2%. 2.7% is still higher than in most periods of the previous recovery (red) and above the average inflation rate during the post 9/11 recovery (green).

Me on Bloomberg TV talking about Venezuela, the bond market and the Fed https://t.co/3C2NOQOEMR

Hot off the Presses! Our year-end investor letter for our Index, the Bianco Research Total Return Fixed Income Index (Bloomberg: BTRINDX) Our partners at WisdomTree have a ETF that tracks our Index (symbol: WTBN) https://t.co/wUJAOOPSth

Mar 18, 2025, Walz gloated: They've got that little stock app and I added Tesla to it to give me a boost during the day, 225 and dropping. - Today $TLSA is up 102% ($455), @elonmusk was TIME's POY and ... *MINNESOTA GOVERNOR WALZ SAYS HE WILL NOT SEEK REELECTION Nice call Tim!

Follow-up up to this thread ... For those who want to use the Iraq model as an overlay, this might be correct. As the gray box shows, it took five years to ramp up production after the second Gulf War. Consultants Wood Mackenzie estimate that every additional half a million barrels of extra output will require $15bn-$20bn of investment. --- This sounds correct. But if we assume that Trump announces $30 to $40 billion of oil infrastructure investment tomorrow (an additional 1M barrels/day). How long will it take to actually spend this much money and get the oil out of the ground (profitably at $50/barrel)? Answer ... about 5 years, see th…

1/6 Where do bond markets stand ahead of the Venezuela news? 2/6 The US 10-year yield closed Friday at its highest level since early September. Given the news from Venezuela over the weekend, how much will it fall tomorrow (Monday)? Will it fall tomorrow? https://t.co/WQGSObMmk3 3/6 Ditto the 30-year yield https://t.co/vhvflV01Xb 4/6 Also on Friday, the 10-year German Bund closed at a new 27-month high. How much will it fall tomorrow? Will it? https://t.co/EFoo1MRru9 5/6 After peaking at near $130 in March 2022 (Ukraine war), crude oil prices have been in a consistent downtrend. Considering crude has been falling for 45 months, wh…

2/5 Venezuela is a founding member of OPEC their official statistics show its production (blue) is down 71% from its 1998 peak. Its sustainable capacity (max output in within 90 days and held for a year) is 1M barrels/day (orange). Venezuela is at its maximum now. https://t.co/H6a1ohxG3s 3/5 Why the big production decline? Socialist Hugo Chávez was elected in December 1998. He turned out to be a brutal dictator. Only to be replaced by an even more brutal dictator, Nicolás Maduro, when Chávez died in March 2013. 4/5 How bad was Venezuela under Maduro? Remember this story from 2017. The country has had eight more years of this abject …

Could we do this again?

July 19 MetLife Stadium East Rutherford, New Jersey Might be the most expensive tickets ever sold in North America. https://t.co/4Avjzz5Pyz If this is too expensive, there is a Jets game this weekend :)

Now even the top of the k-shaped economy is complaining about affordability! https://t.co/y8e1j0FlVY

1/2 The US 30-year yield over the last few weeks. The red line starts at the close on December 9th, the day before the Fed meeting. The news for bonds has been very bullish the last two weeks (detailed next), but bonds yields are higher! https://t.co/ccQuagVHKe 2/2 This list should have sparked a bond rally, but it is not. When markets cannot rally on good news (falling yields for bonds), it is a signal. -- * Dec 10 - The Fed cuts 25 bps, bringing the total cuts to 175 bps since September 2024 - BULLISH FOR BONDS * Dec 10 - During his press conference, Chairman Powell said: “Payroll jobs averaging 40,000 per month since April. We think …

The Japanese 10-year yield just hit its highest level this century. https://t.co/lI7zeSMNfz

2/4 So it should be no surprise the BoJ will hike rates later today at its Monetary Policy meeting. As this chart shows. the market is pricing more than a 90% probability they will hike today. https://t.co/ayiAvVcyrC 3/4 And they are expected to aggressively hike throughout 2026. https://t.co/m0lK9QRYk7 4/4 Japan's inflation problem and aggressive rate hikes has its 10-year yield (blue) soaring. For the first time in 30 years, Japan is NOT the lowest 10-year yield in Asia. It's now China (red). The "sick economy" of Asia is no longer Japan, it's China. https://t.co/PA9bsmZGMw

History shows that nothing struggles like the business left behind to acquire a sports franchise.

Warsh has now overtaken Hassett to lead for next Fed Chairman. https://t.co/Boc1tVTN8V

Remember most of this is delayed data finally getting released. The Fed has cut 75 bps since September. This data will tell us if these cuts were justified, not what is coming next.

Last night the Chicago Blackhawks and the Detroit Redwings played. This was the only thing both fan bases could agree on.

This is a good interview. And, as the chart below shows, we have a horserace again for the next Fed Chairman. If you're interested in Warsh's views, this is worth a listen, https://t.co/XoAG8wjWzv

We might be a few minutes away from a new favorite to be the Fed Chairman. https://t.co/sXLylLfzQm

Dimon weighed in, and the betting for Fed Chairman is in chaos! JP MORGAN DIMON SAID WARSH 'WOULD MAKE A GREAT' FED CHAIR: BARRON'S DIMON SAYS HASSETT MOST LIKELY TO CUT RATES: BARRON'S https://t.co/M7DCguDLST

TIME Magazine's Person of the Year (PoY) is "The Architects of AI." PoY has a long history of being an excellent contrarian indicator when it has an investment theme. Q for @donnelly_brent Do we: * Sell the Mag 7 * Short the Mag 7 * Steal Money to short the Mag7 on leverage https://t.co/VeiesW9WT1 Why the POY works as a contrarian indicator -- The late Paul Montgomery of Universal Economics popularized the idea of TIME magazine covers as contrarian indicators. In this study, he notes that the Man of the Year, now called the Person of the Year (POY), has been a particularly good contrarian indicator. Not every POY has an investment implica…

Apparently, per this exclusive from the FT, the Fed Chairman race is not yet over, even though Trump strongly hinted it was over last month. The betting market is reacting. --- Trump today (from the FT) Trump addressed the Fed selection with journalists on Air Force One, after the Financial Times reported the final round of meetings. “We’re going to be looking at a couple different people, but I have a pretty good idea of who I want,” the president said. Trump last month: On Nov 18, 2025, Trump said in the Oval Office, “I think I already know my choice,” when asked about who would replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair, while adding that he w…

As many as five of the 12 voting members of the Fed’s policy committee, and 10 of all 19 members, have signaled in speeches or public interviews that they didn’t see a strong case to cut.