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1/6 Where do bond markets stand ahead of the Venezuela news? 2/6 The US 10-year yield closed Friday at its highest level since early September. Given the news from Venezuela over the weekend, how much will it fall tomorrow (Monday)? Will it fall tomorrow? https://t.co/WQGSObMmk3 3/6 Ditto the 30-year yield https://t.co/vhvflV01Xb 4/6 Also on Friday, the 10-year German Bund closed at a new 27-month high. How much will it fall tomorrow? Will it? https://t.co/EFoo1MRru9 5/6 After peaking at near $130 in March 2022 (Ukraine war), crude oil prices have been in a consistent downtrend. Considering crude has been falling for 45 months, what bullish news is priced in that will be taken out (falling prices) because of what happened in Venezuela? https://t.co/sxNKXY8eL8 6/6 Note bond market yields are rising as crude oil prices fall (gray box). If crude oil prices do fall, will this "recouple" crude oil prices and yields for more than a day or two? https://t.co/yGbMj0qdHt
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1/5 Thoughts on market reaction to the Venezuela news. tl:dr The spigot in Venezuela waiting to be opened to flood the world with crude oil and lower its price has been broken for a while. It will take several years to fix it.

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Library as of 2026-10-22