Jim Bianco

Bubble Talk: Tulips to Tech Rational Dissent Episode 013 Despite bubbly valuations, persistent market skepticism suggests the AI boom is expanding like 1996—not collapsing like 2000. -- Available on YT, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Overcast, etc. Chapters 00:00 - Introduction & Sponsor 02:13 - Defining Bubbles: Tulips, Dot-Com & 2008 06:37 - Bubble Expansion vs. Market Peak 09:34 - S&P 500 Valuations & AI Concentration 17:20 - Why Equities Require "Hopes and Dreams" 21:52 - Are We Closer to 1996 or 2000? 26:27 - AI Monetization: Frontier Models vs. Applications 32:10 - The Real Risk: Overcapacity & Technological Disruption 36:27 - Conclusion & …

Is 3% the New 2%? The Fed’s K-Shaped Economy Dilemma

Just minutes away from the last read on inflation before the Fed's next meeting. Jim Bianco of Bianco Research writing, "The problem with inflation is not it is going to go up. The problem with inflation is it's stuck in the three range. We cannot disinflate back to two unless the economy collapses." Jim joins us now for more. Jim, good morning. >> Good morning. >> Yeah. Begs the question how far this Fed's willing to take things. >> You know, that's a good question because the message of the last 2 years, the Fed was cutting rates from September 2014 to September 2016 and 10-year yields went up 130 basis points. That's the first time in 50 y…

Nominal growth (inflation PLUS real growth) determines the proper level of NOMINAL yields. This means real growth has a role in setting NOMINAL yields. NOMINAL yields are more than a reaction to inflation expectations, as I explained here. https://t.co/0bdPnwpo4m

A boy that cease-fire…

What a mis-read of Frederic Bastiat!

1/5 The S&P 500 increasingly looks like two stock markets: AI-related companies and everybody else. 41 AI-related companies we track accounted for 48.68% of the S&P 500's combined market capitalization. The remaining companies accounted for 51.32%. https://t.co/owS3WGJiom 2/5 No list of AI-related companies is perfect. We use a classification drawn from J.P. Morgan’s Michael Cembalest: 29 direct-AI companies, eight utilities, and four capital-equipment companies. https://t.co/vo1URxGceM 3/5 We recreated the concentration chart from Michael Hartnett’s BofA Flow Show. We replaced the current-period (green) with our broader 41-co…

He did not talk to Trump

A month ago (Sept 14), Trump did the same thing, randomly announcing a ceasefire that neither side knew anything about. Hours later, energy facilities were hit. https://t.co/HReERokTwE

Too much doom porn

Rational Dissent Episode 012. What the 'K' is Going on? Available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, and more. Markets and portfolios are keeping top earners spending, while many paycheck-to-paycheck households fall behind as prices have risen faster than wages since COVID. Chapters 00:00 - K Shaped Setup 01:59 - Income Deciles Breakdown 02:38 - Where Money Comes From 03:29 - Spending Essentials Gap 04:50 - Who Drives Consumption 06:02 - Affordability Poll Reality 07:45 - Wages Versus Inflation 09:27 - Stocks Versus Sentiment 12:45 - Can Policy Fix It 14:42 - Fed Limits Fiscal Trap 20:08 - If Markets Roll Over 24:44 - Social Un…

Rational Dissent Episode 012. What the 'K' is Going on?

we have to do something about inflation. 3% inflation, being above 2% for 66 straight months, Alex, as you said, is unacceptable, full stop. And this is what's driving interest rates higher, as it should, and this is not something that we cannot The worst answer we could give is throw our hands in the air and say, "I guess we're in a 3% inflation world, and we'll just have to revalue to everything like that." Bottom of the pay will not like that answer, because that means that the it's acceptable for them to continually lose purchasing power, unless you want to start giving them raises. Problem with giving them raises is then you cement a 3 t…

I've been making the case for bonds. If this cover cannot convince you that it's time for bonds, I cannot help you anymore!! @donnelly_brent https://t.co/v1tYd6DX9G

The 4-week average of initial claims equaled its lowest level ever (57 years). I cut off the peaks so we can better see the troughs. -- For decades, this was THE gauge to measure the labor market. Now it's making a case this is the best labor market in our lifetime. https://t.co/XkUIcZVagc

Everything You Know About the Bond Market Just Inverted

[music] Welcome to Traders the Trader Edge. I'm Jim Yurio. That's by Chino. Special thanks to Trady Air for having us on their hub. That's it's they they're an amazing company. Also, thank you guys for following us at unfilteredinvestor.com. Some of you who subscribe and just about four minutes ago I got stopped into the Amazon long that we talked about in our newsletter. Bobby, are you in too or no? >> I am in now. Now that you're reminded me that the price was good. I got in. I actually talked about that trade on uh on Charles Payne's show on Monday. So it's uh it's pretty much out there so people know we're doing it. >> Okay. Good. And the…

If SpaceX ($SPCX) was in the $SPX now, AI-related stocks would be 51% of the index. With Anthropic and OpenAI coming public, add them to the $SPX in 2027 and AI would be ~55% of the $SPX. The last time a single theme was >50% of the $SPX was the railroads in the 19th century. Here is the list (I use Michael Cemblast's list, it is as good as any list I've seen.) https://t.co/B9uvzTWQCO

Are 5% Yields Here to Stay? Jim Bianco's Bond Market Roadmap

Well, one of Wall Street's biggest bond bears says now might be time to buy bonds. He turned bullish a couple weeks ago. Let's bring in Jim Biano, president of Bianco Research. Jim, great to have you with us. Um, where in the curve and can you walk us through the riskreward? >> Yeah, I um I think that finally the bond market say from the 5year to the 30-year all at a 5% yield or higher. first time in 20 years that that's happened is now reflective of the overall state of the economy and that is a 3ish inflation rate and a 2ish real growth rate. So a nominal rate of about five. So if you have a 5% economy and you have 5% interest rates, that's…

The Soxs have played in Chicago for 126 seasons (since 1901), and this is the first time they've been the most expensive ticket in baseball. This is Book of Revelation stuff. The get-in price for the Sox-Guardians game in Chicago on August 8 was $31. Today, the minimum to get into the stadium is $296. Bitcoin wishes it had a run like the Soxs the last two months! https://t.co/anrkbS1wFL

The Bond Market's Revolt: Why Long Yields Keep Rising as the Fed Cuts

[music] Hi, I'm Keith McCulla and welcome back to round two of day one of the investing summit. We appreciate it. Uh, a little inside baseball here. Behind the scenes in the control room, they always ask the upcoming guest, do you have any, you know, stocks to disclose? And Bianca goes, I wish I did. >> [laughter] >> Welcome, man. Thanks for thanks for making the time. >> Thank you. Yes, everybody wishes they had more stocks on a day. It's an alltime high. >> Yeah, alltime highs. It is what it is. I mean, no offense, man, but I want to talk to you more about the bond market. Yeah, definitely how it relates to stocks, but the uh very few I mea…

Try to contain your pure joy over this. https://t.co/zh3EMtwL71

1/3 Here's the chart back to 1793, courtesy of Ed McQuarrie at Santa Clara. The past 10 years have been the worst since 1803. Read that carefully. Bonds WERE the worst investment in American history. It says nothing about what they do next. https://t.co/9kif9Ryayo 2/3 You buy a bond for its yield (blue). By 2020, they were the lowest in US history. This killed returns (orange) Since then, yields have risen (price losses). This was the unwinding of QE and zero rates. That is done. Now yields are back and diverging from returns. https://t.co/bx6K1nkPSg 3/3 Yield and FUTURE returns are strongly related. The higher the yield, the bette…

If you have been worried sick about this... --- (Bloomberg) -- Elon Musk is a trillionaire again. The fortune of the world’s richest person jumped by $65 billion on Monday to $1.04 trillion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, as the value of his stakes in SpaceX and Tesla Inc. rose. SpaceX shares are up 13% since the start of October, while Tesla has gained 6.7%.

Here is my post in its original form https://t.co/7dT0ueymMo

A few days ago, I argued that excessive debt wasn't driving yields higher (link). The repost is my argument for why yields are moving higher, and why they are no longer expensive. https://t.co/AcrblgHGGS

I agree with @AlexMalitas that the CCC spread widening is a bunch of "problem children" and not a signal of wider credit problems. Too many are over-reading this. Confirming this, @AlexMalitas also noted that Ba spreads (blue repost) are not widening. ---- Which companies have people overreacting to CCC spread widening? * Acrisure LLC / Fin Inc: Insurance brokerage built through hundreds of agency acquisitions, expanding into fintech, payroll and cybersecurity services. * Affinity Interactive: Formerly Affinity Gaming. Operates regional casinos, mostly in Nevada, plus properties in Missouri and Iowa. * Altice Financing SA: Financing enti…

Bonds Are Finally Fair Value — What I’m Buying Now

I see the bond market as being maybe fairly valued now where it was too expensive for the last six years. The way I would look at it, if the bond market is offering me mid 5% yields, I want to start getting in. If it wants to offer me high 5% yields, I want to get in more. If it gets to six, I want to get in even more. They were too expensive bonds for six years. That expensiveness is gone. I wouldn't go as far as call them cheap, but at least we've got this reflected. So, a lot of what I said, the economy is strong, inflation is sticky. That doesn't sound bullish for bonds, but I would argue yes. And now a mid5s [music] yield reflects that. …

The Bond Pivot: Jim Bianco On Why It’s Time To Start Buying Bonds https://t.co/SyHexlpDlA

Rational Dissent Episode 011. Three Risks That Matter More Than Terminator AI Available on YT, Apple, Spotify, Overcast, etc. Looking past the sensational headlines, we analyze the measurable risks truly driving markets—from Europe's winter energy vulnerabilities and cracks in distressed corporate credit to the Fed funding pressures behind the Treasury basis trade. --- Chapters - Introduction & Risks - Energy Market Breakdown - Europe Natural Gas Watch - AI Debt and Credit Spreads - Oracle and CCC Stress - Basis Trade Explained - Funding Market Triggers - Crowded Trade and Transparency - Energy and Global Fallout - One Number to W…

His bluff got called

My colleague and fellow “Rational Dissenter” @AlexMalitas joined X! Give him a follow, you won't be disappointed.

1/2 Correct! And their raise at work (orange) has been falling behind cumulative inflation (blue) since the end of the COVID recession. https://t.co/FKq7nRu1nr 2/2 By the way, the opposite was true from 2009 to 2020. raises at work (orange) outpaced cumulative inflation (blue). This is why there was no talk about a "k-shape" economy. The bottom half kept pace with rising prices (if not outrun them in the second half, as shown below). https://t.co/EAPF6wJ1Be