Source item
Open original source ↗TIME Magazine's Person of the Year (PoY) is "The Architects of AI."
PoY has a long history of being an excellent contrarian indicator when it has an investment theme.
Q for @donnelly_brent
Do we:
* Sell the Mag 7
* Short the Mag 7
* Steal Money to short the Mag7 on leverage https://t.co/VeiesW9WT1
Why the POY works as a contrarian indicator
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The late Paul Montgomery of Universal Economics popularized the idea of TIME magazine covers as contrarian indicators. In this study, he notes that the Man of the Year, now called the Person of the Year (POY), has been a particularly good contrarian indicator. Not every POY has an investment implication, but when it does, it has been profitable to take a contrarian stance against the cover story.
Paul also argued that this really only works with non-investment-oriented publications. Publications like BusinessWeek and Barron's feature investment-related themes every week, so they have little to no contrarian value. But when a publication like TIME raises a theme with investment implications, to a cover, or POY, it has most likely achieved something extraordinary to warrant attention. By the time they are recognized for their actions, some form of mean reversion usually occurs the following year.
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