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1/2 The US 30-year yield over the last few weeks. The red line starts at the close on December 9th, the day before the Fed meeting. The news for bonds has been very bullish the last two weeks (detailed next), but bonds yields are higher! https://t.co/ccQuagVHKe 2/2 This list should have sparked a bond rally, but it is not. When markets cannot rally on good news (falling yields for bonds), it is a signal. -- * Dec 10 - The Fed cuts 25 bps, bringing the total cuts to 175 bps since September 2024 - BULLISH FOR BONDS * Dec 10 - During his press conference, Chairman Powell said: “Payroll jobs averaging 40,000 per month since April. We think there’s an overstatement in — in these numbers by about 60,000. So that would be negative 20,000 per month.” - INCREDIBLY BULLISH FOR BONDS * Dec 16 - Employment report, October payrolls down 105k, November unemployment 4.6%, a new cyclical high. - BULLISH FOR BONDS * Dec 18 - CPI missed expectations. Core CPI 2.6%, lowest since 2021 - BULLISH FOR BONDS * Since Dec 10, the national average for gasoline prices is down 3+% to $2.88, the lowest since mid-2021. - INCREDIBLY BULLISH FOR BONDS