Jim Bianco

@CarneytheLiar Yes, wrote it last night. https://t.co/wPD62ixlgU

1/5 Where Is the Demand Destruction? tl:dr - Asia because they are reliant on Middle Eastern Crude oil, and it is now over $150/barrel. This is keeping (for now) the American and European grades "only" ~$100. (% gain since the war) https://t.co/A6Rk6TjszH 2/5 The chart below shows tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy artery, have effectively flatlined to zero since the conflict began on February 28. https://t.co/dWnilYlUfU 3/5 This represents a sudden removal of roughly 20% of the world’s crude oil supply. While Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to Yanbu is expected to ramp up from 2M bpd to …

Yesterday was day #17 of the war. The national average of gasoline is up 86 cents (middle panel) Or 28.8% (bottom panel) https://t.co/I26G2JAxHr

The most important chart right now. Note that this only tracks ships with their AIS (Automated Identification System) turned on, think the GPS on your phone or in your car. More ships are going through, but they turn off their AIS. But once they are confidence enough to start going through with AIS on will signal a true reopening has begun.

*TRUMP: REITERATES POWELL TOO LATE, URGES RATE CUT *TRUMP: FED SHOULD HAVE A SPECIAL MEETING TO CUT RATES --- They have a regularly scheduled meeting starting tomorrow.

National average of gas prices is up 73 cents since the war started 15 days ago (middle panel), or 25% (bottom panel). https://t.co/NhhuStQnOD

*DUBAI TEMPORARILY SUSPENDS FLIGHTS AT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT For years, Dubai, the UAE and Qatar have presented themselves as bulletproof tax havens and sanctuaries for the global elite. Just four years ago, Qatar hosted the 2022 World Cup, signaling the region's arrival as the world’s playground. Today, the reality has shifted. These past two weeks have severely tested that reputation. For the ultra-wealthy, 0% tax means little if physical safety is at risk. The reputational damage may be permanent if the elite begin to rethink living or visiting there for good.

Yesterday was the 14th day since the war began. Update on the national average of gasoline prices. https://t.co/SPGgv90aY7 Another version of this chart that is getting a lot of attention. https://t.co/Y1RB3f4E7T

@mederComments They are one of many sources reporting it. Start understanding the story and stop have an emotional reaction to the source

Remember that just yesterday, Tehran was reportedly floating a completely different condition: cargo paid in yuan. Today, it’s “any country except the U.S. and Israel can pass.” That is not a reopening. It is evidence the rules are being improvised in real time. And two days ago, on March 12, Iran tried to pose as reasonable by saying ships must coordinate with its navy to transit. Reuters also reported other selective assurances for passage, including a vessel changing its signaling to “China-owner” to get through. We’ve seen this before. During the Red Sea crisis in 2024, the Houthis offered similarly selective assurances in Bab el-Mandeb…

The cryptic announcement that Iran will allow tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz if their cargo is paid in Yuan has many problems. Unless there are more details offered, view it as propaganda and not a workable idea. --- If you're interested in why, some thoughts... No operational mechanics were explained How exactly does Iran verify what currency a cargo was paid in before granting passage? Oil trades involve a chain of counterparties — producers, traders, refiners, end buyers — often with multiple legs of financing and settlement. There's no manifest line that says "paid in yuan." Is Iran proposing to inspect banking records at …

Desperately seeking a pardon

Let me offer discussion points on why they decided to bomb Kharg Island. The administration and military planners likely concluded that it would take weeks, if not months, to secure the Strait of Hormuz. During that time, oil prices could rise to levels that would suffocate the global economy. This was unacceptable. They are desperate for immediate action. So, they needed a bold, decisive move to force Iran to relent quickly. Trump was clear. They bombed Iranian military structures on Kharg but left the oil infrastructure unharmed (assuming this is accurate). Recognizing that this could freak out oil markets, they announced it on Friday e…

Regarding crude at $90 or $110 Monday. ... Joint Chiefs Dan Caine said we are going to hit 6K targets today. I assume the same on Saturday and Sunday. So, Monday morning, I assume Caine says we hit 18K targets. If we see no progress in getting control of the Strait... $110 Monday. If this effort shows progress, not the Strait is "open," but "progress," ... $90.

If Iran does this, crude oil prices fall back to bear pre-war levels, and they lose the only leverage they have.

The only reason I do not allow my children to play in the middle of the highway is the cars speeding at 70 MPH. Otherwise, the highway is open as a playground. Let me help you with the spin... The Strait of Hormuz is not physically closed. Instead, shippers have deemed it too risky to transit. We understand their concern; the Iranian regime is blatantly violating international law and basic morality by targeting innocent ships and killing seafarers who have nothing to do with this conflict. This has to end. The United States military has the means and the motivation to stop this brutal regime’s killing of innocents and end its tyranny ove…

If the Fed cut rates, bond yields would soar. Crude oil prices are surging due to supply constraints. The market needs demand destruction to restore balance. In plain English, there is not enough crude oil to go around because of the inability of tankers to get through the Strait of Hormuz. So, someone has to consume less crude oil. Surging crude oil prices are the market’s way of forcing the marginal buyer to stop purchasing, bringing supply and demand back into balance. If the Fed tries to offset higher crude oil/gasoline prices by cutting rates, the market will respond by pushing prices even higher. It will not stop until enough people r…

Looking at Goldman Sachs Research gives a good timeline for thinking about the Strait of Hormuz * March 4, Hormuz flows would recover in 5 days. * March 9, they pushed that to 10 days * March 11, they extended it again to 21 days of very low flows before a 30-day gradual recovery. Goldman's thinking was similar to mine. On March 4th, I ASSUMED the US Military had an active plan to open the Strait. Between March 4th and March 11th, my thinking (like Goldman's) evolved when we both realized they either had the wrong plan or no plan and are currently struggling to figure out what to do. This is no longer a War with Iran It is now a War to …

"There is no reason, whether or not Trump declares that war is over, to think that Iran will not continue for some time to threaten to destroy the ships that try. Why should they stop?" --- Exactly, Trump cannot TACO. If he thinks declaring victory and leaving lowers gas prices, it will do the opposite. Iran will know it has the West by the jugular and keep squeezing so crude PERMANENTLY stays at $200+/barrel. The only way to get oil prices down is to neutralize Iran's ability to disrupt shipping.

He learned little/nothing from the drone warfare between Russia and Ukraine. Or the Houthis in the Red Sea. Or Hamas in Gaza against Israel. They ignored the Ukrainians when they said they have a defensive option against drones. Generals always prepare for the last war. This is no longer a war against Iran. It is now a war to open the Strait of Hormuz

The chart below shows the national average retail gasoline price from an AAA Motor Club survey. Yesterday was day 11 since the war started on February 28. The middle panel shows the 11-day dollar rise. The current 61-cent rise was exceeded only at the beginning of the Russia/Ukraine war in March 2022. The bottom panel shows the 11-day percentage rise. Gas is up 20.6%, the largest 11-day percentage increase in the 22+-year history of this measure.

Wow! Note this from the Chancellor of Germany, not @JDVance

1/6 Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war. The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened? Is the Administration pivoting to that mission? Every day without a visible path to reopening, the market will price in more risk. https://t.co/Dc9XagdhJG @johnkonrad @mercoglianos 2/6 The problem: the Administration APPEARS to not be taking the Strait threat seriously. The contradiction is stark: - Trump to tanker captains: "These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, the…

Crude Oil has to be impossible to trade right now Red = Transportation Secretary Chris Wright says the Navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz, -8.3% Blue = Social Media post deleted, +5.49% Green = repost below, potential mines in the Strait, +9.57% https://t.co/5WwL74K5wx

1/2 You can see the repost in the Crude Oil Futures Curve. The drop off (backwardation) over the next 3 to 6 months is huge, then it levels out. It suggests the market thinks the disruption lasts about another month, then 6 weeks to 2 months to get everything back to normal. https://t.co/d5eRFNNO1H 2/2 And the backwardation is the most extreme in 30 years, meaning the market is pricing a spot price much lower in 3 to 6 months. https://t.co/4u9SZ9gCmq

Good color from @0xCarlos_ This pipeline was built in the 1980s as a hedge against the Iran-Iraq War. It was designed for exactly this scenario — but it hasn't operated anywhere near 7M bpd in decades. The pumping stations along 1,200 km need to work flawlessly at 7x throughput. These aren't parallel redundant systems — one pump station failure and throughput drops to zero until repaired. Running aging infrastructure at nameplate capacity under emergency conditions is a roll of the dice.

Yesterday was day 8 of the war. The national average of gas prices is up 54 cents (18%) since it started. Prices were up 6 cents yesterday. https://t.co/gCWn8VQcNz

*WTI OIL DROPS AS MUCH AS 10% TO $85.52/BBL AT START OF [Tuesday] TRADING *TRUMP SAYS IRAN WAR WILL END 'SOON' BUT NOT THIS WEEK Not to be callous ... but the market really cares about oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. It believes that transits are about to ramp up, meaning this war is about to become MUCH less of a market event.

The last 24 hours of trading in the April 2026 WTI trading might be the wildest day in the 40+ year history of crude oil futures trading. * $35 range * Rockets 30% higher Sunday night (green) * Crashes 30% the rest of the day (red). Why? See the repost below. https://t.co/n1vLPOdC5l

1/2 It's not about guts! It's about insurance. Tankers are expensive ($100m). Shipping companies issue bonds to buy them, which have covenants (rules) requiring the proper insurance to sail (war risk in this case). The crews are for it; they get a bonus for sailing war zones. 2/2 Yesterday @mercoglianos had a great point about the difference between "seapower" (1 word) and "sea power" (2 words) or maybe "$ea power." Seapower is military power "$ea power" is the ability to have commercial trade. The main purpose of the Navy is to protect shipping lanes and allow commerce to flow on the high seas. This was the reason the US created a N…