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Open original source ↗Let me offer discussion points on why they decided to bomb Kharg Island.
The administration and military planners likely concluded that it would take weeks, if not months, to secure the Strait of Hormuz. During that time, oil prices could rise to levels that would suffocate the global economy.
This was unacceptable. They are desperate for immediate action. So, they needed a bold, decisive move to force Iran to relent quickly.
Trump was clear. They bombed Iranian military structures on Kharg but left the oil infrastructure unharmed (assuming this is accurate).
Recognizing that this could freak out oil markets, they announced it on Friday evening to give markets 48 hours to digest the news. Trump also made it explicit that oil infrastructure would be next if Iran did not allow ships to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz.
In football terms, they're throwing a Hail Mary pass now, hoping it works. They don't have any more time on the clock. Oil markets and the world economy cannot wait weeks or months for the military to open the Strait.
Further, I could envision political advisors suggesting that if oil prices are destined to hit $200 without this action, it might as well happen next week, giving six months to bring them down before the midterm elections.
As I've argued in many other posts, Trump cannot simply declare victory and pull out (TACO). That would be worse. It would leave Iran in control of the world's economic jugular, allowing it to punish everyone by permanently holding oil at $200. So, they must force Iran to relent.
Again, these are just the thoughts running through my head as I try to explain to myself why they took this step.
Follow-up to above
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Trade is the circulatory system of the world economy. It only works if it keeps flowing.
The Strait of Hormuz is the carotid artery of that system. If it gets blocked, oxygen stops reaching the brain. You do not have the luxury of patience. You clear it immediately, or the global economy suffers a massive stroke.
That helps explain the logic behind the Kharg strike.
The goal was not to clear the Strait by force. It was to tighten the pressure on Tehran by showing that the economic cost can rise quickly and sharply. Kharg sits too close to the center of Iran’s export system to be ignored. Even the threat to it carries real strategic weight.
The danger is plain enough. More pressure on Iran can also mean more pressure on global supply, higher oil prices, and a broader escalation.
So, the United States appears to be making a hard coercive bet: that a sharper warning now is still less costly than allowing Hormuz to remain shut for any length of time.
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Quoted context
These are the quoted author’s words.
“Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island... Iran has NO ability to defend anything that we want to attack — There is nothing they can do about it!" - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸
WhiteHouse ↗