2026-03-11XThread

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1/6 Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war. The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened? Is the Administration pivoting to that mission? Every day without a visible path to reopening, the market will price in more risk. https://t.co/Dc9XagdhJG @johnkonrad @mercoglianos 2/6 The problem: the Administration APPEARS to not be taking the Strait threat seriously. The contradiction is stark: - Trump to tanker captains: "These ships should go through the Strait of Hormuz and show some guts, there's nothing to be afraid of..." - The U.S. Navy, citing risk of attacks as "too high," says it is unable to provide escorts — despite near-daily requests from the shipping industry. WTF! https://t.co/zyV6Cs13H1 https://t.co/lcNAJUZ74I 3/6 Yesterday, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine was asked about naval escorts in the Strait. His answer: "If tasked to escort, we'll look at the range of options to set military conditions to be able to do that..." Did he just admit they don't have a plan — and haven't started one? https://t.co/nej3E5ej2d 4/6 One charitable read: "strategic ambiguity" — keeping Iran off-balance while a plan is quietly executed. If so, we should see ships moving through the Strait within days. But even optimistically, the WSJ warns that even with Iran's complete surrender today, Strait traffic takes 2 weeks to normalize and Gulf oil production 2 months to recover. Oil markets won't snap back fast. https://t.co/FPkJkxVaIn 5/6 If there truly is no plan, the warning from former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis deserves serious attention. He amplified a shipping CEO's alarm that the Strait must be reopened "immediately" and "urgently" — pointedly asking whether the White House understands the stakes for global oil supply. https://t.co/vfzO8vW8CI 6/6 The market's sensitivity to this is extreme. Yesterday, when a Bloomberg headline falsely reported the Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait, WTI crude crashed ~15% to near $80 — down 32% from Sunday's peak — before the story was walked back. Today prices are rebounding. Every day without a visible path to reopening, the market will price in more risk. https://t.co/DsxI1svCZ6

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Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28.
MikeSchuler ↗

At the press briefing today, the CJCS, when asked about providing naval escort to shopping in the Strait of Hormuz, said: "on the on the potential, if tasked to escort, we'll look at the range of options to set the military conditions to be able to do that. And then like we always do with every potential mission, come to the secretary and the president with both what are the resources required, what is the command and control required, and what are the risks and how do we mitigate those risks. So, we're looking at a range of options there and we'll figure out how to solve problems as they come to us." ➡️Well, sounds like a lot of staffers will soon be familiarizing themselves with #NCAGS or Naval Control and Guidance of Shipping. (Don't worry if you've have not heard of this. Most US Naval Officers haven't either, in my anecdotal experience.) Refer to the NCAGS page at the NATO Shipping Centre for the documents. There is even a course! https://t.co/9Tahz5i8CC See also the @DOTMARAD Maritime Security Communications with Industry (MSCI) Web Portal for Advisories and Alerts with specific details for the NCAGS detachment at @CMF_Bahrain https://t.co/VAeFLgUr3w Good luck! The economy of the entire world is counting on you. 🤞🏽 @mercoglianos @johnkonrad @MikeSchuler @cdrsalamander @lawofsea @BDHerzinger @brentdsadler @NextNavy
supbrow ↗

If the war ended today with Iran's complete and total surrender, Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic would take two weeks to return to normal and Gulf oil production two months to get back to pre-war levels. And that's optimistic. https://t.co/o3CKt61EZn
michaelkamon ↗

The U.S. Navy won’t provide military escorts in the Strait of Hormuz despite near-daily requests from the shipping industry, according to a published report. The Navy says that the risk of attacks is “too high,” according to Reuters, and that it is unable to provide escorts for the time being. https://t.co/diOrtb9qTH
FreightWaves ↗

This Bloomberg headline crossing now may explain the new downturn in crude oil prices (repost) --- *US NAVY ESCORTED AN OIL TANKER THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
biancoresearch ↗