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You can see the repost in the Crude Oil Futures Curve.
The drop off (backwardation) over the next 3 to 6 months is huge, then it levels out.
It suggests the market thinks the disruption lasts about another month, then 6 weeks to 2 months to get everything back to normal. https://t.co/d5eRFNNO1H
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And the backwardation is the most extreme in 30 years, meaning the market is pricing a spot price much lower in 3 to 6 months. https://t.co/4u9SZ9gCmq
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Quoted context
These are the quoted author’s words.
If the war ended today with Iran's complete and total surrender, Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic would take two weeks to return to normal and Gulf oil production two months to get back to pre-war levels. And that's optimistic. https://t.co/o3CKt61EZn
michaelkamon ↗