So, what the hell is going on in the
stock market today? Because this is a
little weird. Well, honestly, the market
seems to be pricing in some more growth
fears as well as the Fed Beige book that
just came out. But the Fed Beige Book
and what happened in the Treasury market
doesn't necessarily entirely align until
you really look beneath the surface at
okay, what's what's really cooking over
here and why are people starting to get
nervous? So, let's try to break this
down and understand exactly what's going
on. So, first the beige book. Okay,
obviously we had a CPI report this
morning that was not as ideal. You had
Goulsby calling it discour…
Crap. The CPI numbers just came out and
they're bad. They're not good. They're
just not good. This unfortunately aligns
with the fear that we had yesterday. The
fear we had yesterday is you just can't
win because even if you end up getting a
better number on the headline, like .5
or .4, it's still bad. Like even if you
win, you're still a loser. Okay? But we
just matched a horrible number. That is
a 7.2% annualized year-over-year gain in
CPI. That's crazy. This is the headline
number. See how I kind of put it closer
to the head. All right?
Uh this set over here, this is our core
number.
Uh yesterday I also said I'm really
disappointed about C…
Private credit and the debt market are
starting to fall off of a cliff. In this
video, we're going to break down what
this means for you and how bad is it
really? Take a look at this. It's a big
arrow going down. Spoiler alert, it's
not good. Let's though first start with
what JP Morgan just warned. Then we're
going to talk about what's going on in
the AI bond market and then we'll talk
about what this means for us. So, first
we've all heard of private credit
already. A lot of private creditf funded
companies started going bankrupt at the
end of last year, leading to a big fear
that uh-oh, we are just at the tip of
that black swan event where…
Well, this is starting to look a little
weird. We just had the vice chair of the
Federal Reserve rate setting committee
come out again to help bail out markets.
We'll talk about what he just said in a
moment, but what I want you to pay
attention to is when he said it. So, the
first time he made his comments were
right here when we were at the 735 line
and the Nasdaq was having its 1 2 3 4
5th red day in a row. We're bouncing on
the 735 line, people are nervous, and
all of a sudden what helps us get to
ALL-TIME HIGHS? OH, maybe we don't
actually need an interest rate hike in
October. In fact, this was the September
29th article. Fed Williams h…
We're back from vacation, which means
the stock market should start going up
again because that has always been the
tendency. But we've got to talk about a
full catchup of absolutely everything
that's going on. Which means we need to
talk about the fears about artificial
intelligence. What is happening with
anthropic? What is happening with
Broadcom? What is happening with Iran
and therefore rates and oil? What is
happening with the Fed? What is
happening and expected to happen
tomorrow with CPI? And then of course
this all comes on the back of the great
suckening. The great sucking is a little
bit of an oopsy doopsies every time. And
we say …
In this video, we're going to go through
construction and teach you a little bit
about building in California, especially
right at the California coastline, and
how it could actually be a hack to your
net worth. I just have one favor to ask
you. We are going to do a massive spec
build, ground up construction in Utah,
specifically in Park City. So, if you
happen to know any vendors that you
would recommend that might want to work
with the channel on branding purposes
for automated shades, for windows, for
flooring, we're talking about a pretty
big project and we have two lots in the
development. Uh, and and they're each
going to be over 10,000…
SpaceX acquiring a low band frequency.
What the he double hockey sticks DOES
THAT EVEN MEAN? WHY DO WE FREAKING CARE?
I'll tell you why we care. It's because
the legacy mobile companies are shaking
in their freaking boots, baby. And there
are some of them that have actually
partnered with SpaceX. The first thing
you got to know, and this is not
sponsored by like any of these companies
that I'm about to mention, okay?
Although I do have exposure to SpaceX
stock in many different ways, both post
IPO selloff exposure to SpaceX and and
that's up from where we are now to be
clear. Uh and and we've been pretty
transparent on the channel about what
…
I don't know if you can see the theming
that's going on here, but we got a
Baymax of a certain color. We got a
Bionicle of a certain color and a light
up
from Five Below that was actually 599.
So, it wasn't Five Below. Also of a
certain complexion. There is a theme
here and the theme is generally not one
that we are very enthused by. The theme
has to do with oh my lord the NASDAQ 100
tanking all of a sudden. What the houble
hockey sticks happen? Is this over? Are
we screwed? All while at the same time
somebody literally I've never seen a
subject line like this emails me. Let's
make a deal. Trump voice. They put that
in quotes hyphen Trump voi…
Just seconds ago, Donald Trump clarifies
that, quote, "We will not be attacking
Iran at any time prior to midterm
elections to be held in the United
States on November 3rd. We will not be
attacking anytime and we are having
productive discussions with the Islamic
Republic of Iran. This is exactly
what we thought would end up happening,
that there's no chance in hell this is
happening before the election." Now, in
what you're about to see, I'm going to
break down the exact negotiation that's
going on. I just want you to know that
there are some reference into references
in this where I'm like, they're talking
about making battle plans. This is…
Well, a stupid idea has just crossed
headlines, front page of the Financial
Times indicates that now Starbucks has
explored a takeover of Chipotle.
This is probably one of the stupidest
forms of desperation I could ever
imagine, but I will say if it happens,
it's probably going to be really
beneficial really fast to one of these
two stocks. Let's first of all go
through a little bit of color on these
financials because
let's be real here. Chipotle isn't
exactly cheap company. Now, its stock
has come down a lot since the peak of
the growth phase in 2024 with Chipotle
lanes coming, you've got this insane
expansion of a business. I love
Chipotle…
Is it possible that your boy meet Kevin
is just wrong and he's about to lose
lots of money? Uh yeah, uh it is. Now,
so far, I don't think I am, but what I'd
like to do is go through, humbly of
course, how we could end up being wrong.
First, let's just clarify the thesis
briefly, and then we're going to get
into some facts and some analysis, as
well as some charts around uh-oh, is it
possible? We still got some work to do.
We're going to look at those in just a
moment. So, first things first, this
morning in our alpha report, when we saw
the yield all the way up 7.5 basis
points, we argued, "Hey, yields
come down, stocks up." Really simple
arg…
This is insane to see this inside of the
FOMC minutes. The Federal Reserve just
released their minutes. And while a lot
of people are freaking out about the
most simple things that their AI is
telling them to worry about, like, oh
no, most committee members saw another
rate hike as likely they missed the
forest for the trees as usual. But
that's okay. That's why we come here to
get the extra nuance. Yeah. And another
cup of coffee.
The ghost of JPAL is back. Can you see
the ghost of JPAL on the screen here? If
you look closely enough and you squint
your eyes, you will see a coupon code
and Jerome Powell. No, it's right here.
This is literally…
The market obviously has started going
red today, giving back some of the
enthusiasm of yesterday. Should we care
and what does it mean?
>> [clears throat]
>> My opinion, the answer is
no. We really shouldn't care right now.
Why? Because a lot of this is driven by
the return of the suckening that we knew
was coming. The suckening strikes back.
The suckening returns. Elon Musk issuing
now the largest ever or seeking to issue
the largest ever debt financing for the
AI buildout. $40 billion
to buy Nvidia chips, $10 billion from
the banks, $30 billion from bond
investors. And frankly, the more
expensive we see or the higher yield we
see from bond…
So, we already know that Meta has, in my
opinion, a lot of upside. But, it's not
just in my opinion, it's also on what
Wall Street thinks. Just taking Wall
Street numbers and applying a very basic
multiple to Meta, this stock still has a
43%
upside. But, what about a gentic
commerce? And what is a gentic commerce,
especially because of this Meta Muse
moment, going to do to other platforms,
Amazon, Google, Etsy, DoorDash,
Wingstop? Well, we've got some estimates
out now from Deutsche Bank, and we're
going to break all of those down. Keep
in mind a couple things. Uh number one,
my price target for Meta is actually
much higher than this. I think…
$3 trillion of data center spending sits
on this election. In this video, we're
going to break down exactly what could
potentially go down if we end up with
Republicans remaining in control, which
seems unlikely right now. What happens
if Democrats sweep? Uh-oh. Oh, or is it
a good thing? And what happens if
Democrats get a little bit of a victory?
Hint, hint. It all has to do with a lot
of this because what happens up here is
a mandate for what local governments
should end up doing. And boy oh boy,
local governments right now have control
of about 50 gigawatts gigawatts of
potential data center spending. Mind you
for a moment that every giga…