Gene Munster

Three takeaways from Jensen’s CES keynote that ended at 5:30p ET: $NVDA shares are flat in after-hours trading. 1. I was disappointed there was no direct commentary on demand. My take: don’t read into it. My take: Demand is still running ahead of expectations and I still expect 65% plus growth this year. The Street is at 50%. Looking back at last year’s keynote, this year’s high-level comments were similar. 2. Spotlight on Physical AI. Jensen dubbed this the “ChatGPT moment” for machines to understand, reason, and act in the real world. My take: the Physical AI push steals the show. 3. Announced a partnership with Siemens to use its tools …

Two pressure points going into Jensen’s CES keynote today at 4pm ET. 1. Commentary on demand. He will likely reiterate that they can’t keep up with demand and reaffirm the $500B target. This ties back to Jensen’s October 28 comments around the $500B Blackwell + Rubin revenue pipeline implying at least 54% revenue growth in CY26, above the Street’s current 50% target. That estimate excludes any incremental bookings and any revenue from China. My take: Over the past two months, investors have been reluctant to give the company credit for the good news. $NVDA’s stock reaction tomorrow will be a read on whether sentiment has shifted. I expect C…

The AI trade gets three important updates today, including Foxconn results this morning and $NVDA and $AMD keynotes after market close. 1. Foxconn beat revenue estimates by 8%, growing at 22% vs. the Street 13%. Foxconn buys Nvidia GPUs and manufacturings some of their products. It's also a positive read on $AAPL iPhone demand for the December quarter. 2. Nvidia’s Jensen CES keynote at 4p ET. Bottom line, I expect comments from Jensen at CES will lead to Street revenue estimates for CY26 to inch higher. For the year, I expect growth north of 65%, vs. the Street at 50% 3. AMD’s Su CES keynote at 9:30p ET. I expect the same positive high lev…

WSJ story on apps powered by ChatGPT lines up with our study from earlier this week. Bottom line: it’s rough today but OpenAI has support from Google, Apple and Microsoft and will eventually get it right. https://t.co/xVHATmnzYE https://t.co/cd88nCjEip

Looking closer at $TSLA deliveries, the numbers are better than they first appear. https://t.co/3Z44JhsAk3

$TSLA is up 1.8% in premarket on December delivery numbers. Delivered 418k vs. Street at 420k and above the whisper of 415k.Overall, deliveries were down 16% y/y in December, vs. up 7% in September. 4 Takeaways: 1. There’s a lot of noise in the numbers, similar to the September quarter, the noisiest delivery quarter in Tesla’s history due to the tax credit expiration. 2. These results are consistent with what we saw in October, when U.S. EV registrations for all automakers were down ~30% y/y. 3. For 2026, the Street still looks too high at +12%. My estimate is flat to +5%. 4. As long as deliveries are roughly flat next year, investors wi…

In October, ChatGPT became an app platform. Since then, even the largest tech companies, including competitors, have wanted to be part of it. https://t.co/xVHATmn296

$TSLA and Elon signaling today that robotaxi production will start in April takes some pressure off December deliveries, which we should get this Friday. Here’s what I expect for Friday deliveries: 1. I expect December deliveries to come in at 415k vs. the Street at 449k. This implies deliveries down 16% y/y, compared with the Street’s expectation of a 10% decline. 2. There will be a lot of noise in the numbers, similar to the September quarter, which was the noisiest delivery quarter in the company’s history due to the expiration of the tax credit. 3. In October, U.S. EV registrations for all automakers were down ~30% y/y. 4. One way to…

The private company tail is wagging the public company dog. Rumors of OpenAI raising capital have increased confidence in the broader AI trade. 🚀

$GOOG's Waymo is out raising money at about a $110B post. If this were a basketball game against $TSLA's Robotaxi, Waymo would be up 50–2. Spoiler alert: Tesla is poised to make a run. https://t.co/tSneuL4BLA

California is giving $TSLA 90 days to rename Autopilot because they believe it’s misleading. The debate has been around since 2018, and is by my measure absurd because when you turn on Autopilot or FSD you get a messages “Keep your eyes on the road. Be attentive at all times”. Previously the message had read “Keep your hands on the steering wheel at all times”. I bet Elon renames it to “California Driver Must Remain Fully Attentive and In Control At All Times Cruise Control”.

Good news for $TSLA. Ford in full retreat from EVs. Hard to see how you build a big autonomy business on the back of hybrids. Ford will take $19.5 billion in charges to write down EV investments, among the largest impairments taken by a company https://t.co/xVLCICcNk1 via @WSJ

’Tis the season. Happy 2026 predictions including thoughts on the Nasdaq, the AI trade, small caps, Tesla and Apple. https://t.co/uazeopGXiK

Deja vu: China sales should increase $NVDA FY25 growth to 65% vs. 51% expected today. Stock up 5% on the news today. Nasdaq was down 0.1%. More in Pressure Points. https://t.co/XiDuapFuAC

My take: $AAPL will be the top-performing Mag 7 stock over the next six months, driven by better-than-expected iPhone results and multiple expansion ahead of the new Siri which should be out around April.

A data point suggesting we’re not at the top of the AI bubble: Earlier today, IBM announced it’s acquiring Confluent for $11B, a 34% premium to Friday’s close. That said, shares are still down 67% from their October 2021 all-time high ($93/share). It’s hard for me to imagine we’re at an AI peak when companies are being acquired for less than half of what they traded at before the AI trade even started. $CFLT is in our $LOUP ETF, which focuses on frontier tech companies below $500B in market cap. For those new to story: Confluent helps companies pipe all their data from different systems into one place so they can feed their AI models with…

Apple’s leadership shake-up comes while there’s still plenty of time for Apple to nail AI. $AAPL https://t.co/PDUyW4PTYT

Here’s a good note as we wrap up the trading week that suggests AI’s impact is broadening into cybersecurity. Rubrik, a $17B data-protection and cybersecurity company, is up 24% today. They reported EPS of $0.10 vs. the Street’s -$0.17 and revenue of $350M vs. $319M expected. They also raised their 2026 revenue outlook by 4%. $RBRK is in our $LOUP ETF, which focuses on frontier tech companies below $500B in market cap.

I'm thrilled to announce that the Innovator Deepwater Frontier Tech ETF ($LOUP) has transitioned to an actively managed strategy. The fund targets companies at the frontier of tech innovation, with a focus on AI, fintech, AV/EVs, ambient computing, and robotics. Our goal is simple: remain nimble in fast-moving, disruptive sectors while building on our seven-year track record. https://t.co/3mAADoW79g

Zuck’s definition of the metaverse has evolved: https://t.co/en8o5wMrgP

During Zuck's Meta Connect keynote back in September, I thought they needed help from Apple design. Now they landed the talent and will reset Reality Labs focus that kicks off a new chapter.

AI investors are worn out from all the good news: https://t.co/asuv0JGaE6

Good news for $AAPL investors: Apple has a new head of AI. Shares are flat on the announcement, but the stock was up 1.5% earlier today on “no news” vs. the Nasdaq down 0.4%. My three takeaways: https://t.co/wfMfVsALaO

Three takeaways from the news that $AAPL’s head of AI, John Giannandrea, is going to “retire” in the spring of 2026. Stock up a fraction in after hours on the news. 1. The new Siri is likely on track for a spring release. While there was no mention in the press release about timing of the new Siri, his spring departure lines up with the rumored timing. 2. He most likely was asked to retire. He’s 60 years old which means in Apple years, he still has 5 good years left. Shows Cook is serious about having substance behind their AI features. 3. They want more from AI. The new head of Apple AI, Amar Subramanya most recently was a VP of AI at Mic…

What's most important in AI this week? Taking a step back; I remember when I was covering $AMZN on the sell side the Cyber Five (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) used to be a focus for investors. Now it’s a sideshow. What matters this week is the keynote from Matt Garman, CEO of AWS, at 11 am ET Tuesday from the AWS re:Invent stage in Vegas. I'll be watching and listening for any updates from what they said back on Oct 30th around plans double AWS capacity by 2027 and any nuggets on demand.

’Tis the prediction season. I’ve got: $AAPL as the top Mag 7 performer for the next six months. $GOOG for the next year. Below is more on GOOG. https://t.co/RKECDnIQ8q

I agree with @DivesTech, Nvidia is the champ. My prediction: AI infrastructure will be a bright spot for investing in 2026. Deepwater owns $NVDA.

This won’t be a wearables holiday, at least not for Meta Display. We tested Meta AI on Meta’s Display glasses against ChatGPT’s video conversation tool on an iPhone. It wasn’t even close. https://t.co/hVa6bMlRmX

While the market is sour on $NVDA in the near-term, the potential of restarting the China business would be sweet. https://t.co/qCnf3rjwwR

Breaking $NVDA news: Trump is considering restarting H20 sales in China (Bloomberg). What it could mean for numbers: Back in August, Jensen said China H20 could be a $50B revenue opportunity this year if fully sold in, with 50% annual growth. The Street is currently modeling $317B in CY26 revenue, up 49% without China. If China comes back for the full CY26, total revenue would be about $367B, up 73% year over year.