Source item

$TSLA and Elon signaling today that robotaxi production will start in April takes some pressure off December deliveries, which we should get this Friday. Here’s what I expect for Friday deliveries: 1. I expect December deliveries to come in at 415k vs. the Street at 449k. This implies deliveries down 16% y/y, compared with the Street’s expectation of a 10% decline. 2. There will be a lot of noise in the numbers, similar to the September quarter, which was the noisiest delivery quarter in the company’s history due to the expiration of the tax credit. 3. In October, U.S. EV registrations for all automakers were down ~30% y/y. 4. One way to cut through the noise is to shift 55k deliveries (our estimate of demand pulled into September by the tax credit) out of September and into December. This would change the y/y growth rates to ~down 5% in each quarter. In other words, “down 16%” in December is really closer to down 5%. 5. Ultimately, investors are likely to look past any December-quarter delivery miss, as the results should suggest the auto business is beginning to stabilize.