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$TSLA is up 1.8% in premarket on December delivery numbers. Delivered 418k vs. Street at 420k and above the whisper of 415k.Overall, deliveries were down 16% y/y in December, vs. up 7% in September. 4 Takeaways: 1. There’s a lot of noise in the numbers, similar to the September quarter, the noisiest delivery quarter in Tesla’s history due to the tax credit expiration. 2. These results are consistent with what we saw in October, when U.S. EV registrations for all automakers were down ~30% y/y. 3. For 2026, the Street still looks too high at +12%. My estimate is flat to +5%. 4. As long as deliveries are roughly flat next year, investors will be satisfied. That stability allows the focus to remain on Robotaxi, FSD, and Optimus.