Gene Munster

Well said @ahmurphy at the pace of tech. 🚀

I remember when the iPhone sold 270k units in the first weekend, missing the 350k whisper, and a buy-side investor called to notify me that it was “dead on arrival.” We’re still early in AI.

While the market is worried about AI, the news flow suggests we’re still early. Here are five things that happened this week that support that view. https://t.co/ANcyfKvQD8

Looks like we’re in for another ugly day for $NVDA, with the stock down 2.5% in the premarket. Maybe I’m not getting the joke, but my fallback is to focus on fundamentals, which suggests we’re still early in the AI buildout. More on my take: https://t.co/JbacAdKhl2

612 dinner with Dan and Doug.

The $NVDA call just wrapped. Stock is up 4%. I think it will be up 5-10% over the next week. The takeaways: 1. Jensen was over the top near and long term bullish. 2. Guided Jan to 65% revenue growth up from 62% in July. 3. Suggest revenue next year should be up at least 54%, above the Street at 41%. 4. Margins next year will maintain current levels, which is a win.

Jensen says $NVDA has the balance sheet to support their partners, and all the investments are about expanding the reach of the CUDA ecosystem. My take: Sounds like the partnership announcements are going to keep coming.

Jensen says hundreds of billions in capex spending will quickly profitable. My take: Thats been a key question and Jensen view is predictable.

Jensen takes the mic. Reiterates his view that there are three transformations underway that $NVDA will take advantage of: 1. CPU → GPU: accelerating computing. 2. AI transforming existing apps and enabling new ones. 3. Agentic AI.

The question was about concerns over overbuilding and overspending on AI infrastructure. Jensen says: don’t overthink it. AI applications are the fastest-growing in the world, and the number of companies building on them continues to rise. That means the need for pre-training, post-training, and inference is still in the early stages. $NVDA

CFO says "on track for $500B forecast for Blackwell and Rubin and that number "will grow" If they hit the $500B, that implies revenue up 54% compared to Street now at 41% My take: She suggested there is upside to the 54%.

Favorable margin outlook for 2027 - They're looking to hold gross margins in the mid 70%. Thats a win given the growing costs. $NVDA

Outlook: Not assuming any revenue from China. $NVDA

Automotive revenue up 32% yy. My take: It's still growing slower than overall revenue (up 62%). In a few years, that will change as physical AI kicks in.

Topic of physical AI came up. CFO reiterates it's the “next leg” of growth. My take: This is one reason how $NVDA can grow faster for longer. Wall Street is focused on how long the generative AI buildout will last, but the physical AI buildout will be another wave that kicks in over the next few years.

Sounds like the OpenAI relationship is in a good place, with the option open to invest in the company. My take: We knew this.

CFO says Mag 7 is increasingly using $NVDA networking solutions. I estimate Mag 7 account for over 50% of GPU demand, which underscore they have deep pockets to buy networking gear.

$NVDA stock moving higher on CFO hitting the message that next year is going to be a great year with a combination of positive comments.

CFO says three scaling laws remain intact. My take: This is more than a check the box comment. There is a debate if these laws are holding up. $NVDA

On the call: CFO reiterates they have visibility for $500B in Blackwell and Rubin revenue through the end of next year. This is the same comment Jensen made on Oct 28. It implies 54% y/y growth in CY26, compared to the Street at 41%. $NVDA

What $NVDA earnings and guide tell us about the state of AI: ➡️AI’s collective “brain” (GPUs in use) is going to be bigger than we thought three months ago. ➡️The bigger the AI brain gets, the more use cases appear. ➡️The more use cases that appear, the stronger the AI investment cycle becomes. ➡️The stronger the investment cycle, the longer the AI trade marches on.

When a company accelerates revenue growth despite the law of large numbers, it signals something bigger is going on. $NVDA now guides year-over-year revenue growth of 65.3% for January, up from 62.5% in October. Whats going on? We're even earlier than most realize in the AI buildout.

$NVDA beats the whisper by 2.7%, beats in print by 3.8%. Guidance: Raises Jan revenue by 3.0% above the whisper and 4.8% above the in print.

We already have everything we need going into tonights $NVDA print. As recent as last week, Jensen has been clear we're early in the AI buildout, they can't keep up with demand and there are multiple phases of the build out that Nvidia will participate in. None of that will change after tonight's earnings and guide.

Here's my $NVDA preview that I published last week. Beware of the catch 22: https://t.co/BwlJWTunqm

Jensen’s comment on Oct 28th at GTC implies CY26 revenue growth of roughly 52%, ahead of the Street’s current 41%estimate. That figure excludes China revenue and any new bookings, and it assumes Nvidia can produce enough to meet demand. My take: The CY26 revenue bar for tomorrow night is around 43%, just above the Street.$NVDA

$NVDA revenue growth estimates for CY26 are creeping up going into tomorrow's print: ➡️Current: 41% ➡️Nov 13: 39% ➡️Oct 28: 34% ➡️Aug 31: 31%

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🚀 I’m wearing my pink shirt to the watch party.

Always fun to join Dan Nathan and talk big tech! https://t.co/OxqOK7Q2vw