Gene Munster

$TSLA expects to add new 7 robotaxi cities in the first half of 2026. Elon had talked about 6-8 in CY26. Even discounting for Elon's timing, that's a positive outlook.

$META says engagement is growing (up 6.9% yy) to 3.5B people because AI is making the content more relevant. Example of AI utility.

More good news on the AI infrastructure trade. $MSFT Capex for December was 25% higher than expected. If you roll that through for CY26, implies Capex up around more than 50% compared previous expectations of 30%. Need to wait for the call 5:30p ET to confirm they will continue to spend at those levels.

Zuck kicks off the call starting talking about wearables (surprises me) and this will be the year where AI changes the way we work. $META

$MSFT I believe its down 4% in after hours based on the deferred revenue declined sequentially.

$TSLA is likely going to be up tomorrow in part because FSD appears ready to breakout. My testing shows it's made measurable progress over the past three months. As evidence in the company's confidence in FSD, they gave out the growth in FSD subs (excluding free) for the first time. Subs up 38% year over year. Thats faster than cumulative deliveries up 22% year over year in 2025 over 2024.

$META Revenue up 24%, ahead of the Street at 22%, compared to 26% in September. The engagement - ad flywheel continues to work. Driving the ad number, grew DAU’s by 6.9% vs. 7.6% in September and 6.4% in June and 5.9% in March, 5% in Dec 24 and 4.8% in Sep 24. Latest evidence about how addictive Meta’s products are.

First take on $MSFT, $META and $TSLA earnings. Bottom line: AI trade continues to be in a great place (despite MSFT down 6% in after-hours) All that matters is $META suggests CY26 Capex could be up as much as 85% in over CY25. Previously the Street was expecting a 57% increase. Good news for $NVDA and for those playing a role around AI buildout.

Final thought on $META. The topic of adding subscriptions to all of the apps has been rumored for years and appears to be gaining momentum. This could be a swing factor tonight.

This falls into the category of easy to say, hard to do. JB’s insight on repurposing old EV batteries for data center infrastructure now has $GOOG as an investor. That's validation from a company with deep technical expertise and deep pockets. Deepwater is thrilled to be an investor.

Here's my $TSLA preview note from last week: https://t.co/wTDWbBP3dL

$MSFT earnings tonight key points: Bottom line. I don't have a sense of what the stock does tomorrow. ➡️Azure. Growth is expected to be 37.8% (Factset) vs. 39% in September. For March 26, the Street is expecting similar growth of 37%. ➡️Capex. Street is expecting 49% y/y capex growth in December vs. 30% in September. That doesn't matter. ➡️What counts is what they say about capex growth in CY26. The street is expecting 32% y/y growth. That compares to AMZN at 17%, GOOG at 29%, META at 57%. I expect their comments will point to 40% capex growth. If they say that, it's a positive for $NVDA.

$META earnings tonight key points: Bottom line: I expect the stock will be up because Zuckerberg will remind investors long term he wants revenue to grow faster than expenses. ➡️ Last quarter the stock traded down 11% after the print on the flip of the script around the relationship between revenue and expense growth. ➡️Street is looking for 22% ad growth compared to 26% in Sep. March the Street is looking for 21.5% growth. ➡️The key question is when will we see margins improve. Street is expecting 40.9% in December, compared to 40.1% in September, but investors expect it to dip to 36.1% in March and 36% for June and September. ➡️ Capex. Th…

$TSLA earnings tonight key points: Bottom line: I expect the stock to be flat to up on earnings. In the end, investors who believe in Tesla's view will be unchanged after earnings. ➡️When the numbers hit the first two factors that investors will be focused on is ASP's in a post tax credit world and gross margins. ➡️ASP in Sep were $41.8K ➡️Auto margins ex credits are expected to be 13.6%. ➡️That compares to 15.4% in Sep, 15% in June and 12.5% in March. I expect margins will end 2025 closer to 15%. The meat that investors are looking for will come on the earnings call. ➡️How many cities will roll out this year for Robotaxi without a safety …

I’d love your take on how much you’d pay for a personal AI agent.

One truth about how AI is impacting the workforce is that it's hard to talk about. Earlier this week at Davos, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei told the WSJ, “I don’t think there’s an awareness at all of what is coming here and the magnitude of it,” adding unemployment could hit 10%. Today Amazon outlined its second phase of 30k job cuts, or 9% of corporate, that were announced last October. At the time, Jassy was clear the reductions were “not even really AI driven,” but rather tied to culture and a push to become leaner and more agile. His response reveals a truth about AI’s impact on the workforce. Despite the explanation, the reality is AI …

$TSLA reports on Wednesday night. I expect it will be a slight positive for shares. https://t.co/LFXtdmJFGn The three key topics: 1. Updated timing of Robotaxi rollout 2. Expectations for deliveries in 2026 3. How margins will trend with flattish deliveries and the new cheaper Y & 3.

$INTC down 13% in premarket is close to what I would expect it to trade following earnings.

Elon just spoke for 30min at the World Economic $TSLA moved up 1% on his comments and is up 1.5%. Nasdaq up 1%. Optimus: "Probably sometime next year we'll be selling humanoid robots to the public." My take: slight positive because it confirms things moving forward. Last year he said 1m units in 2027, which means they would be selling them next year. Unlikely they do million next year and doesn’t matter. As long as they sell 1k or more is a win. FSD “We hope to get Supervised self-driving approval in Europe next month, and hopefully similar timing for China." My take: I’m not sure what “approval” entails. If it means they can market it as…

$AAPL has two potential catalysts for multiple expansion over the next 8 months: 1. A revamped Siri in April (still on track). 2. A Siri chatbot in September to compete with ChatGPT despite Apple previously saying it didn’t want to build a chatbot. Gurman is right 90% of the time. You can take this to the bank.

Some Friday afternoon good news for $GOOG: Our testing suggests ads in AI Overviews are ramping up, which we see as positive for December and CY26 Search growth. https://t.co/MUZNJ89ZiJ

Pressure Points: AI Trade Update - Jan 2026 We’re 4% of the way into 2026, and the fundamentals of AI infrastructure are tracking above expectations. Next stop: hyperscalers’ capex guidance in two weeks.

AI trade alive and well.

Key indicators of AI fundamental health in 2026 are now 2-for-2. Bottom line: AI infrastructure growth in 2026 is likely to exceed expectations. I believe NVDA will grow >65% y/y, versus the Street at 50%. 1. Management commentary from NVDA at CES suggested upside to the Street’s 50% CY26 growth expectations. 2. SMC reported last night. Shares are up 7%, versus the Nasdaq up 0.8%, after the company guided March-quarter revenue 7% above Street estimates. NVDA is up 3% on the read-through. This implies that for the March ’26 quarter, TSMC revenue is likely to grow 40% y/y, compared to 25% in Dec ’25and 41% in Sep ’25.

Odds of new Siri succeeding just went up. It's official, $AAPL going with Gemini is important because it means the new Siri, aka the new Apple Intelligence, has a higher probability of success when it launches this spring (my guess is April). The shift away from GPT, and to a lesser extent the OpenAI relationship, toward Gemini is a sign that Apple is serious about fixing Apple Intelligence. To be clear, GPT is a highly capable model, but Apple wants, and needs, to do more. Nice job, @tim_cook, turning the decade Siri problem and Apple Intelligence shortcomings into an opportunity for future device and services sales.

Nice call Dan on the Apple+Gemini combo. You've been saying that for months and now it's official.

Early read on $NVDA investors in 2026: they’re a tough crowd, but growth will win them back. https://t.co/XVFRPnJSws

@deepwatermgmt is proud to be a small part of the big vision you’re tackling @xAI. We’re grateful investors. Thanks for all that you and the team are doing.

$NVDA flat on the day despite CFO's comment at JP Morgan Fireside Chat that there is upside to the $500B Blackwell and Rubin comment from back on October 28th. The fact the stock is not up on this is the latest evidence that investors are reluctant to buy into the 2026 AI hardware trade. This is what I was expecting Jensen to say yesterday in his keynote. I continue to expect revenue growth this year of 65%+ compared to Street at 50%.

How bullish is $NVDA about its business? Just look at how often management wants to get in front of investors. Over the years, I’ve noticed that when things are going well at a company, management's are more aggressive at telling their story to investors. In 2025, Nvidia lists 16 investor events on its IR website outside of earnings and shareholder meetings. Most are keynotes and sell-side conferences. Over that period, $NVDA shares are up 26% vs. the Nasdaq up 18%. Compare that with $CRM, which lists 11 events, and $ADBE, which lists 7 (including podcasts). Both stocks are down ~22% over the past year.