Serenity

I'm going to miss the days of Korean retail reacting heavily to $EWY / Samsung / $SKHY daily volatility. New piece: "Korean day traders flee leveraged chip ETFs as regulatory curbs bite" - Trading value in ETFs designed to deliver 2x daily returns of Samsung / SK Hynix has fallen to just 4% of its June peak - The requirement follows earlier measures, including a higher minimum deposit, aimed at cooling speculative activity - And then came the final boss... A 5 day trading course where: "Investors must download a Windows-only program and spend at least one hour each day trading with virtual funds" $MSFT Windows wiped out the Korean retai…

The more I look at ESMT, the more excited I get researching legacy memory themes. So looked through H1 sellside models... From March ESMT reports: Huanan: DDR3 4Gb ASP +50% QoQ in Q2 Fubon: cited roughly +40% Q2 DRAM pricing By August... Huanan was citing ESMT Q2 ASP growth of: +105–113% Q/Q blended. Saying DDR3 pricing had come in substantially better than expected. So legacy memory pricing translated into much more operating leverage at ESMT. About PSMC wafer cost hikes: Huanan estimated manufacturing costs could rise ~100% in 2H26, but customers remained highly willing to accept the pass-through If we look at July net income was rou…

Just some random ideas from Elon’s post: $AAON - Chillers / liquid cooling $NVT - Cooling $MOD - Chillers / Cooling $IESC - Wiring $MTRS - chillers $JCI - chillers $HPS.A - Transformers (disclosure I own positions in this) $PRY.MI - networking/wiring(fiber) $CRDO / $AAOI (same) / $LITE / $COHR - networking Since Elon Musk cited: - transformers - wiring - liquid cooling - massive chillers + complex networking As the point of failure for AI compute buildout. Which is “harder than finding power”

FYI to the AI bears: $NVDA projects $1.3T of hyperscaler spend for 2027. Up from ~$800B in 2026, alongside ~70% revenue growth despite remaining capacity constrained… far above prior Street expectations of ~45%. That capex flows across the AI supply chain… from memory and networking to foundries. Especially through the new bottlenecks/chokepoints that didn’t benefit from older generations. We’re like 2 hours into the party where people started off drinking Sapporo draft beer. Someone spiked Situational’s drinks and we had to pause the party for 30 min. But now it’s back on with tequila shots on the table. I think the real party is about…

Just my final recap on thoughts + fundamentals of $SIVE from ER: Pluggables (1.6T Ramp) for 2027: - $JBL (1.6T LRO, confirmed) Orders H1 2027, Ramp H2 2027 -> -> Likely multiple hyperscaler customers - 3 pluggable makers (evaluation) - 3 pluggable makers (supply assessment) Reference Design for likely H2 2027–28+: - $GFS (Globalfoundries) SCALE (confirmed)) -> -> Likely $AMD and other hyperscalers as CPO customers External Light Sources / Optical Engines for 2027: - $POET (confirmed) -> -> Lumilens / hyperscaler end users - O-Net (confirmed) -> -> Massive ODM/OEM for Hyperscalers + Asia - Likely $AEVA (mapping) -> -> supplying to OE …

It’s been a little disappointing to see a pattern with some people I've interacted with on X: - try to engage with the same audience, then quickly move toward aggressively monetizing it - get upset when I choose not to participate in or amplify paid groups - throw out personal or illogical attacks and try to reframe that as simply disagreeing over fundamentals When I first joined X, a lot of finance content revolved around watches/private jets + options, paywalled communities promising the "secrets of Wall Street," and squiggly-line charts. One of the things I've wanted to do differently is publish my research and reasoning openly, for e…

Okay just to simplify this: There is a guy who eats a lot called $NVDA. Nvidia only wants to buy high-priced potatos off the farmers. A potato farmer $MU, that was selling carrots... now shifted farmland to potatos. Nvidia caused a great potato famine cause they can eat a lot. So everyone else who farmed carrots like SK Hynix and Samsung moved their farmland capacity to grow potato. But... people still need to eat. And carrots are a healthy part of their everyday diet.. Now there's no more carrots aside from a player like "ESMT", the legacy carrot farmer. So now, because everyone buys carrots off ESMT, there's a shortage and the price g…

$MU: goes from $133B -> $1T+ in a year. $RDDT after a 2-month correction: "Garbage stock" https://t.co/HlIXwJ7ZdB

Missed this mention earlier but IC design insiders reveal that OSAT providers have already warned clients: "traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" (eg. $AMKR, ethereum:0x041ff0e49f6f774e7dc7bd10ee4a14c00b1d80b2, Powertech as potential beneficaries) With: "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck (ASMPT, $KLIC) -> influx of AI server shipments has triggered a spike in demand for mature chips -> existing mature packaging capacity at OSATs is being rapidly absorbed -> securing early access to traditional packaging capacity is now becoming a challenge Cascading bottleneck patterns are occu…

Yes. I genuinely don't have a clue why $SIVE still focuses on local Swedish markets for communication/private fundraising. Over the US. The questions you get from Swedish heavy audiences include: - Leading questions like how would you "stop the bleeding" - "Why can't you disclosure your private customers" - Why focus on transceivers (it's obvious) - Implications for non-photonics orders So 1/3rd of the time, the CEO needs to be defending leading/accusatory questions around what "opportunity pipeline means" US analysts would have pressed: - Economic implications from 2 foundry allocations during a bottleneck + ASP hike/operating leverage…

If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings: 1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most. -> 6 pluggable engagements -> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck) That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it. And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those. 2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one. The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement: "we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditio…

只是因为这张图浏览量太高了… 白毛牛来 https://t.co/WiHhXVqtK5

Are Frontier lab relative valuations are too absurd nowadays? If Anthropic IPOs at $2T… 10% of that can buy up almost every major established consumer brand: From: Taco Bell/Pizza Hut/KFC, GAP, American eagle, Levi’s, Victoria’s Secret, Cheesecake Factory, Krispy Kreme… Calvin Klein, Kohls, AMC, Kura Sushi, Dennys, Nike, Build a Bear, Jack in the Box, IHOP, Papa John’s… Shake Shack, Apple Bees, Dave & Busters, Under Armour, Petco, Canada Goose. All together. Using 10% of Anthropic. And they’d still have $51.6B leftover.

所以… 回到存储这边我们现在有： $SKHY CEO 表示: “我们预计[存储]短缺将持续到 2030 年底” $SNDK 表示: “我们看到直到 2030 年，NAND 都存在结构性的巨大需求”非 GAAP 毛利率将维持在约 80%. $NVDA 表示 供应承诺从 1,190 亿美元增加到 2,790 亿美元，主要由存储采购推动…与此同时, 存储定价处于“极端”水平 而且还在继续上涨. Winbond 正在与多家客户就延伸至 2029-2030 年的配额展开讨论. 我之前就说过, 存储需求看起来是结构性的, 而现在从传统 DRAM 到 HBM，需求可见度已经延伸到了未来数年.. 所以我确实认为, 整个板块的远期 p/e 倍数都有进一步上升的机会.

@Ice_Tradingg The market also strongly disagreed when $AXTI was $13.

@shawnyang1128 This was disclosed wafer capacity from their foundry partners back in 2024. Maybe one of the US players got added. I’m not a fan of Sivers switching to hybrid manufacturing at this stage though (think it targeted 1/3rd of capacity). But I do agree it’s needed to be vertically integrated like $AAOI or $LITE.

@sokarsokk Mix of algorithms, short sellers, dozens of repurposed/dormant accounts dedicated toward spreading negative news about $SIVE Hard to believe accounts used for marketing during 2016 Asian ICOs or new X accounts would just start posting 50 negative comments only about Sivers. Regardless of near term volatility these things cause, fundamentals will catch up. The materially bearish thing I see is implications of increased capex spend from going to a hybrid manufacturing model from fablite (but it’s inevitable in the long run) I haven’t really seen much people comment on that

@ethics3606 If you take Q2 operating cash outflow and the $70m they raised. That amount alone would last around 2.5 years, even if you ignore income that flows in from quals -> HVM. They also have no interest debt after bootstrap conversion + exit. They’re more than fine

Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at: Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers. So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with: - Large capacity from Win Semi - "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while" And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount). The nuance I'm reading is: - $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available…

Nah, $SIVE is the most unusual $1B photonics company I've ever seen. Just for AI DCs alone: - Reference laser for $GFS SCALE (CPO/NPO/pluggable) - 7 pluggable engagements disclosed, with $JBL as primary ramp (with H1 2027 timeline) - ELS path with O-Net - ELS path with $POET - Lasers to Ayar for CPO I/O (now in $NVDA nvlink ecosystem) - Lasers for $AEVA (which now has NPO agreements with optical engine providers for hyperscalers) - Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence (likely customers in 2023/2024) - InP lasers on TFLN with Lightium Then it has 2 substantial allocations for CW DFB laser capacity during an industry shortage. As well as on…

$SIVE earnings just got released: $1.2 billion revenue opportunity pipeline growth up 268% from December (incredible growth). Last ER: $799M (this was a surprise, likely linked to Jabil) July 2026: ~$1.2B (hinting more either more customer engagements than what's announced or larger volume ramps within programs). "Sivers continued to reallocate resources from NRE projects toward product ramp preparation. Sivers expects the impact of this transition to become visible in Q4 2026 and accelerate through 2027 as multiple programs progress toward volume production." Makes sense on timelines. Current financials reflect a qualification-stage p…

我感觉我现在大部分粉丝都是讲中文的…

@Xlonggo2 兩者都有。很多買家因為預期 2027 年會出現短缺，正在恐慌性囤貨 提前拉高庫存 但同時也確實存在真正的結構性短缺……而且情況可能還會進一步惡化，因為像華邦電（Winbond）這類傳統記憶體廠商，現在已經在和客戶討論 2029–2030 年更高階產品的未來產能配置 所以我不太認為會有多少產能重新回到最老舊的產品線上

I've always been bullish on memory with $MU / Samsung / solana:SKHYhSjuRWHgikq8eRKbtBbpABgJSkd7ytQV14i9EQ3 for the 2026-2027 period. Same opinion, even after $NVDA call. And I've been fervently defending how high end memory demand is structural + OP for operating income (especially during Iran tensions around LNG/Helium). Nvidia earnings just reaffirms what we know about extreme demand since commitments went from $119B -> $279B largely driven by memory procurement. Nvidia's CFO also said: "We are experiencing extreme pricing conditions in memory." As for what I've done, H1 2026 I was extremely overweight in memory: With $MU, $SNDK, Phis…

$NVDA: "We expect to grow revenue by approximately 70% in fiscal 2028. This is a supply constrained outlook" That statement alone is probably more important than the entire earnings beat just now? Insane upward revision beat from +43.9% expected to 70%. "With cloud industry backlog now greater than 2 trillion, CapEx by the top five hyperscalers is expected to reach nearly $800 Billion in 2026 and 1.3 Trillion in 2027" $1.3 Trillion in 2027. (MS was around $1.2T June, so this is upward projection revisions) Yeah the high-beta parts of the supply chain growth is going to like this.

I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now… But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”? So now you have: - $LITE (capacity gone) - $COHR (capacity gone) - Landmark (capacity committed) - $AAOI (capacity for transceivers) - $MTSI (not online) - $SMTC (limited) I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia? So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players). Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining …

The concept of “cascading bottlenecks” is just super cool. Because of DDR4 supply shocks and costs: Lot of ODMs are redesigning downward from DDR4 -> DDR3 -> DDR2. But even the legacy players themselves like Winbond are withdrawing from DDR2. Making the bottleneck even worse

I love how so many people requested $SIVE that Saxo Japan went out of their way to list it! Just goes to show how much demand there is for this laser company. Special shoutout to Saxo. And of course, excited for Sivers earnings + planned Nasdaq listing coming up.

All right back to $SMTC movie: "The bottleneck go Brrr": My favorite quote was: "availability currently matters more than pricing". In the current market for optical products. - No near-term erosion is expected on booked optical orders, which signals they're passing cost increases through fine. - I was actually curious most about Semtec's CW laser products after the HieFo takeover: Semtech expects CW-laser revenue for transceivers to begin H1 FY28. Explicitly said capacity is limited. They still seem materially further behind compared to the laser leaders, but they're making progress for 2027 ramp. - TIA and driver solutions remain in …

Lost interest in $SMTC and every other earnings report today after finding a memory name way too interesting not to research...