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The more I look at ESMT, the more excited I get researching legacy memory themes. So looked through H1 sellside models... From March ESMT reports: Huanan: DDR3 4Gb ASP +50% QoQ in Q2 Fubon: cited roughly +40% Q2 DRAM pricing By August... Huanan was citing ESMT Q2 ASP growth of: +105–113% Q/Q blended. Saying DDR3 pricing had come in substantially better than expected. So legacy memory pricing translated into much more operating leverage at ESMT. About PSMC wafer cost hikes: Huanan estimated manufacturing costs could rise ~100% in 2H26, but customers remained highly willing to accept the pass-through If we look at July net income was roughly $109M... way above the earnings levels the earlier models were built around. If I had to give a TLDR "consensus" of reports 1. DDR3/DDR2 supply remains structurally tight as competitors move capacity toward higher-value memory. 2. Concord saw no conditions supporting a price reversal during 2026. 3. Concord expected contract-price increases to cover higher foundry costs. 4. Huanan later found that customer willingness to accept those cost increases was stronger than expected. Fun thing I read from Huanan was DDR3 is used in products such as IP cameras and HDDs where the memory component is a relatively small part of the customer's total BOM. So even very large legacy DRAM price hike may only add a few dollars to the finished product's BOM... and for many customers, paying a few extra dollars would be more economical than redesigning + requalifying (but this flows materially into ESMT's net income) Anyway, just excited about this idea (*disclosure I have positions) TLDR: -> Huanan updated ESMT blended Q2 ASP to +105-113% Q/Q -> Given July's blowout net income (putting ESMT at 1.9x p/e annualized RR), implications for the future are exciting if inelasticity continues + ESMT has the ability to hike further due to low % of finished product BOM cost. -> Indication customers were still willing to accept pass through for PSMC wafer hikes.

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記憶體產業(20260810) - DRAM 結構:主流型約 80%(高容量 DDR4/DDR5,Data Center、PC);利基型約 20%(DDR3、低容量 DDR4,工控、醫療)。供給高度集中:三星、美光、SK 海力士約 95%;長鑫 2–3%;南亞科約 1%。 - AI 帶動結構性需求:美光預估 HBM 市場由 2025 年 350 億美元成長至 2028 年 1,000 億美元。此波強度(營收與毛利)已超越 2000 年網路泡沫,屬結構性而非單純供給收縮。 - DDR4 仍關鍵:資料中心擴建推升 SSD,每顆 SSD 控制器仍需一顆 DDR4 當 buffer,故 DDR4 未因 HBM/DDR5 而退出。南亞科同時受惠大廠退出 DDR4 的轉單與 AI 需求。 - NAND:預期 2026 年供需接近平衡、至少出現 2% 缺口;2027 年約 3%。主因庫存已調整、CSP 提前大量下單。 - Nvidia SOCAMM 容量減半:Vera Rubin LPDDR5 SOCAMM 由 1536GB 調至 768GB,研判是產能吃緊下的出貨權衡,非需求放緩;供應商 LPDDR5x/SOCAMM 供給預估由 180 億 Gb 升至 2027 年 290 億 Gb。 -7 月營收(記憶體相關):南亞科 438.7 億(MoM +49.3%、YoY +720%)、華邦電 267.7 億(+30%、+292%)、晶豪科 67.8 億(+40%、+491%)、威剛 183.8 億、群聯 271.6 億,普遍受產能排擠與漲價驅動。 3006 晶豪科(20260311) - 定位 無晶圓廠的利基型記憶體 IC 設計公司。產品約:DRAM(以 DDR3 為主)約 55%、NAND/NOR/eMCP 約 35%、類比約 10%。主要代工為力積電。客戶多為通路與模組廠,產品多用於 IP Cam、HDD、消費與工控,占客戶 BOM 比重低,轉嫁能力相對較佳。 核心邏輯 - AI 產能排擠從 HBM/DDR5 蔓延至 DDR4,再至 DDR3/DDR2;同業轉向更高階產品,利基型訂單轉向晶豪科。 - 1H26 仍吃低價庫存,合約價已鎖定且漲幅可觀(部分預估 2Q26 營收 QoQ 大增、ASP 再大幅上漲)。 - 管理層預期 1H26 獲利有機會接近或優於 2021 年高峰(當年全年 EPS 約 17.6 元)。 - 2H26 風險:力積電代工價顯著上漲、新成本顆粒自 3Q26 起出貨;但多數認為缺貨格局下可轉嫁,毛利率未必立刻大幅回落。 AI 產能排擠讓利基型 DRAM/Flash 缺貨與漲價延續,晶豪科因產品組合與轉單受惠最大;1H26 獲利跳升幾乎無爭議,分歧主要在 2H26 成本轉嫁能力,以及該給多少本益比。8 月產業數據顯示漲價與營收動能仍強,較 3 月預估更樂觀。

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