Serenity

Just some words of emotional support for your SK Hynix, $SNDK, $MU fanclub. $DELL CEO on memory, suggested: "It's a 4 year problem because there's just not enough supply" Factories take about 4 years to build, meaning new production would emerge 2029 or 2030. and that semiconductor shortages could worsen in 2027 stating: "I do think it gets worse next year in terms of demand and supply". I think it's strange we're getting unprecedented forward visibility with memory... as $GOOGL and richest hyperscalers seek LTAs into 2035. And a major sector crash as well over durability/financing concerns.

好吧，这视频也太酷了吧... $TSLA 现在居然都有飞行汽车了，感觉我们真的活在未来了 https://t.co/WjY9tP9JIF

Glad we finally got a word too from $NVDA Jensen Huang today from an event at Stockholm... About $CRWV amid the broader Neocloud selloff. When asked about the markets reactions to Coreweave, Jensen responded: - "Coreweave's strength is improving every day, I'm optimistic" - "The cost of capital is actually decreasing" On whether Nvidia needed to provide a financial backstop: - Jensen said he did not see a need for Nvidia to backstop CoreWeave I'm personally not too positive about $CRWV relative to $NBIS and the others... but any copium helps from the man himself with market sentiment.

$GOOGL is now discussing deals to extend their memory LTAs through 2035 from KeyBanc channel checks. Samsung already has 70% of their capacity allocated through 2031, and this move would suggest a more durable cycle for $MU, $SKHY, and the others. They also expect HBM prices up 80% to 100% in the Q1 2027. Having all your capacity potentially allocated out into 2035 via LTAs would ease a lot of memory durability fears.

$TSM released earnings today. I was more curious about commentary given recent the market panic. For analyst Q&A rounds: Q: Citi explicitly challenged TSMC on AI financing, HBM, CoWoS, lasers and the risk of overbuilding capacity A: $TSM assessed CSP capex, DC construction conditions, customer financial conditions, and supply of critical components. Management's conclusion is still that "demand exceeds supply". As well as that AI accelerator revenue growth could exceed its previous 50%+ CAGR projection through 2029. This is a more meaningful statement since it addresses some concerns regarding recent selloff. Q: JPM asked if wafer suppl…

It's interesting to see Elon interacting with finance X accounts out of the blue. Then amplifying $CRWV financing concerns, Chinese memory flooding, to AI investors being gamblers recently. With $SPCX and $TSLA, I do think Elon is a visionary but from how it looks from the outside... Amplifying concerns about competitors does make their financing more difficult as a self-fulfilling prophecy. And multiple posts about Chinese memory flooding after calling Samsung/SK Hynix pricing extortion does harm these supplier valuations... The economic incentives of doing so probably benefits Tesla/SpaceX more in the long run, even if everything goes …

Guess like we found out why Elon has been going on a crusade against memory in his recent posts. $SKHY and Samsung have been price hiking memory too much? https://t.co/r3sTYkd7TX

$AGLT (Agility Robotics) has cleared SEC review for public listing through $CCXI If you want an estimate timeline: ~Oct 13 (today): SEC S-4 declared effective ~Nov 2nd (shareholder vote): for merger approval ~November: Merger closing and ticker goes live for trading. Company’s official statement was: “The business combination remains subject to approval by Churchill XI shareholders and other customary closing conditions, and is expected to close in November 2026.” So likely less than a month away for the first pure play US humanoid company to go live!

Physical AI + Humanoids are the next progression of AI. $NVDA CES 2025 projections and Elon's prediction on $TSLA + 1 Billion humanoids in the next decade, seems to be speeding up. New statement from Unitree CEO after testing GPT-6 on their humanoid program was that: - In August, before GPT-6's release, Wang said the industry could take two to three years at its fastest pace, or as long as a decade, to reach its "ChatGPT moment" - Now, OpenAI's GPT-6 model prompted expectations that a breakthrough could happen "within 1 or 2 years" - He defined that moment as robots being able to complete around 80 per cent of tasks in 80 per cent of unf…

So spent some more time to look at more DBS conference material: - "Two semiconductor giants, $AVGO and $INTC, both stated that breakthroughs in AI will keep demand for chip investment elevated for at least another 2 years. As current supply is insufficient to meet market demand." - "Current chip production capacity is already far from sufficient to meet demand, and $AVGO CEO expects the shortage to become even more severe in the future." (HKEJ) - "Regarding OpenAI, Hock Tan stated that the market had misinterpreted the company because its underlying fundamentals remained strong. He argued that investors who sell based on a single short-t…

Sure... Random train of thoughts on markets now, optics like $LITE / memory + $IREN / Anthropic. On Memory: - Demand visibility on $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix extend into 2030-2031. Samsung has LTAs covering 70% of their capacity into 2031 (likely with SK Hynix type price floors)... and their operating profit is already absurd. There's a consensus that shortage in 2027 will be much more severe than 2026... Even $SNDK expends gross margins to exceed 80% entering 2030. You're going to hear Acer and other CEOs that want memory prices to go down cite bear cases like CXMT/YMTC, and Chinese players. But just looking at supply procurement that $N…

Looks like one of you posted on $RDDT WSB… with a $1M $AAOI position. I’m laughing at the comments, even more amusing when my name pops up Might still be early if people think there’s “no moat” in lasers and that AOI makes no money. (wait and see Q2 2027) https://t.co/vG6Zl4LZHf

Woooow... $LITE CEO went out on Bloomberg today and stated: Lumentum is "effectively sold out through nearly 2029". From our perspective, "Completely Sold Out, there's no end in sight". With demand visibility from hyperscalers that carries them out into 2030, 2031. The implications of these statements are enormous for photonics and remaining laser suppliers with capacity coming online like $SIVE, Sumitomo Electric, to $AAOI. What a crazy bottleneck that's unfolding.

Can someone explain how media headlines about OpenAI’s ~$50B ARR… (vs. ~$70B from incorrect accounting comparisons with Anthropic) Somehow ends a 3-5 year laser shortage with $AAOI or memory shortage with $MU? Hint: it doesn’t. https://t.co/FiVsvg8I0G

$AAOI is... finally... done... With their $600m ATM program, turns out it's ~$105.36 average. I do think AOI outperforms $LITE, as long as they stop filing these ATM programs. Just due to their sheer magnitude of ramp with $471m/month transceiver revenue + 400K/month ELSFP coming up.

$LITE CEO: "Next year with the advent of CPO and NPO in 2027, our estimates are that we'll be undershipping demand... By 70%. Literally 70%. So we can only supply 30%. And this has caught us by supply. By 2029-2030, we get to some level of balance." Source: Global Photonics Economic Forum Day 1 (7:57:15 - 7:58:00) Any other players with laser capacity coming online are probably going to get more market attention soon.

"Potential FCC rules on optical transceivers more likely to come at 3.2T" - $LITE, $AAOI, $COHR, $SIVE. Morgan Stanley met with Washington officials: - Restrictions would likely start at 3.2T modules made in China (800g/1.6T would be left alone) - Potential restrictions would likely keep laser market tight (combining US DSPs + lasers could meet the 65% US value threshold per MS) - Chinese modules could qualify if 65% of bill of materials is US content. Chinese modules using US DSPs and lasers are already near that level - Analysts expect the positive impact on laser pricing... to be more important than any broad redistribution of transce…

$GOOGL Gemini 4 Argon benchmarks got released. Against GPT-6 Astra + Anthropic Fable 5.1 / Opus 5.5. Still coughing nonstop, so will comment on $MU / $JBL earnings later. I've always thought Google's internal models were stellar, but anecdotally, they seem to get hard nerfed shortly after public release... Maybe because of compute constraints? But yeah, looks like Google is back.

Bro, $AMZN semi ETF portfolio is probably going to end up more compelling than what $NVDA owns... Today Amazon signed a $49.8M private placement into PCB maker Gold Circuit Electronics (2368). So now Amazon has ownership/warrants in: - $AAOI - Alchip - $MRVL (Celestial) - $ALAB - $CRDO - $JBL - $FLEX - $STM - $CBRS - $GNRC - $FN - TD SYNNEX - $QCOM - Gold Circuit Electronics And others.. If we look at the private placement amount for GCE in speciifc, it's like .36% of the company... Kinda small financially, meaningful strategically. Esp. since there were claims that GCE supplies ASIC-server PCBs to the four major hyperscaler CSPs... Rega…

I've had better days, having constant headaches which is a bit rough. I did have some fun channel checks though recently. Some guy I met by the bathroom yesterday claimed to be $SPCX Cursor CEO. I'm not good with faces so idk if he was lying or not. Also had some discussions about beamformer technology with an industry executive, it's apparently more important than I gave it credit for.

Everyone is asking "Where is Serenity" or "Who is Serenity". But nobody is asking... "How is Serenity"? I do read things from $AMD $8.2B acquisition of World Labs... but feeling pretty sick right now, so taking a little break. I remember saying physical AI + world models would major shift way back when, so maybe I should have invested in private companies at the time... Apart from that... other interesting news: - Some channel checks from ECOC was that $NVDA apparently secured 50% of $LITE Greensboro UHP laser capacity? And possibly contracts that allow them to secure the remaining capacity per Barclays. That's $5B in lasers (annual cap…

People really need to stop thinking about 5% yields over 10 years or 30 years. Even the inflation of my $SUBWAY sandwich has gone up like 12% a year. Today it was like $20 after tax, when it used to be like $5… 12 years ago. The best way to keep up with inflation of the things that matter, like Sandwiches, is equities like $SPY.

@shanhai188 我刚看了一下旧金山的人口, 感觉已经是个很大的城市了, 结果整个城市也才82万人... 然后再看看我自己的粉丝数, 居然有100万. 说实话, 这个数字真的让我在情绪上有点承受不过来.

@JHBECCALEE Tell them I said hi!

我突然意识到, 原来我有这么多粉丝. 第一次从第三方的视角看了一下自己的主页…感觉好像还有点吓人? 如果我们办一场派对, 而且所有人都来了, 那应该不是塞满一个小房间的问题, 而是能塞满一整座城市吧? 总之, 中秋节快乐！

Okay thing about it for a second: $AKAM gets a big deal over 7 years. But in order to actually execute on the deal: They gotta buy a ton of CPUs and memory… So these upstream component supply chains are probably the larger beneficiaries over the ones in the headline. But can’t give advice in terms of buying something

Nope for $AKAM. But if you look at what’s needed probably CPUs/Memory #1. So your $ARM / $INTC / $AMD thematically (AMD probably higher beta to this company in specific). Then your Samsung / $MU / SK Hynix are your obvious memory beneficiaries. Component procurement is done through $JBL, which potentially benefits their own supply chain if they’re doing networking too.

$AKAM signs $11.6B compute deal with Anthropic for accelerated CPU workloads demands over 7 years. $AMD to $MU should be happy to hear this… Akamai ests. ~$5.5B of capex to service the $11.6B commitment. Including +$1.7B of 2026 capex specifically to pre-purchase supply chain components like memory. So much for Anthropic/OpenAI calling for an AI slowdown?

If you're curious about the random $SPY / $QQQ candle: Just now, “US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade" - Reuters - "A deal before the midterms could benefit Trump, as reopening Hormuz could ease tensions in the Gulf, contain ​oil prices and help bring down politically sensitive US gasoline prices." - "Trump has said he thinks the US and Iran could reach a deal after midterm elections to Congress on November.” Would make sense for Trump to want markets as strong as possible during Midterms elections…

I mean $LITE / $COHR did have $NVDA funding $2B for their buildout. But Lumentum seems primarily self-funded from operating cash flow. So I'd expect $AAOI to follow suit once they start ramp up around H1 2027. 2026 is just that high capex buildout period. My criticism was over visibility and financing methods during this timeframe.