Serenity

@two3pro Trendforce also has a standalone piece for $SIVE capacity projections https://t.co/9SD8tUN87h

$SIVE has its own piece in Digitimes btw, which is appreciated industry recognition outside of Sweden. I think Sivers 100M+ CW DFB laser capacity buildout forced the industry to revisit its models and generated considerably more coverage. BC it puts Sivers into T1 laser capacity convo w/ $COHR, Sumitomo, Furukawa, $AVGO, Landmark, and $LITE if it executes on its ramp. But outside of that, CIOE 2026 channel checks were really meaningful since the community found Sivers is working with Chinese pluggable players + setting up an office locally. I'm getting dejavu to the time I pointed out $SIVE + $JBL at OFC for their 1.6T LRO, but nobody bel…

Just as a pep-talk statistic ahead of Fed decisions tomorrow. 50% of $NVDA employees are reportedly now worth over $25 Million. They didn’t get to that number paperhanding shares ahead of every macro scare or rate hike. https://t.co/saulhxBF3g

@FabioCHZ I also would cheer on a futuristic redesign. I think it’s more of a Waymo “friendly companion” type vibe focused on B2B commercialization rather than exciting retail. https://t.co/xCyPhzdeW3

@blkslymn I’m a fan of $CCXI since they’re targeting commercialization first with companies like $AMZN to $MELI. I think they could get a higher valuation from retail it looked like the terminator and can backflip.

$CCXI releases their Digit 5 next-generation humanoid. Thoughts? https://t.co/r0Gb05cnd5

哇,中国的 AI 视频生成能力可能已经是世界第一了吧？字节跳动的 Seedance 也太强了, 强到让我开始担心… 日本的动画师会不会很快就被 AI 取代？ 但想象一下你可以随时生成新的剧情,让故事一直延续下去, 想看多久就看多久 这还挺酷的

Some color on current memory environments for the $MU / $SKHY bros: "There is zero risk of memory prices dropping" per Team Group GM Gerry Chen. - Memory module makers have received notices warning of drastic cuts to their 2027 supply allocations. Some could receive 50% or less of their 2026 allocation. - Upstream manufacturers have reportedly sold out nearly all of their 2027–2028 capacity. - DDR5 supply, in particular, is projected to come in at less than 80% of previous expectations. - Chen expects prices to continue rising 20–30% quarter-over-quarter into 2027 (source Digitimes) - Chen's commentary on $MU is that even before their n…

@peperifle my opinion is that cybersecurity is probably one of the most overvalued themes in the market.

I've seen comments from Jim Cramer today supporting hedge funds that short Leopold's "nonsense" $SNDK / $DRAM / SK Hynix type calls. As well Cramer calling $CRWD a "Must Buy". I'm not sure if Jim Cramer sees a $241B company labelled "Cybersecurity" and thinks of it as safe... while ignoring all their fundamentals. But with Crowdstrike, you have a ~145x FY2028 fwd P/E company, growing revenue 26% Y/Y. That Cramer thinks is a "must buy". And then you turn your eyes to the AI capex beneficiary theme that Leopold is long on. With names like $SKHY / Samsung in $DRAM... Both FY2027 ~2.8-3x fwd P/E off analyst projections. -> Samsung LTAs to 2…

@Retardlnvestor I now own 2 whole shares of $IREN https://t.co/2yoQguFhCl

$IREN CEO on Anthropic call for frontier slowdown: “Even if models never improved from here… just rolling out what they can already do would take more compute than the world can build for years” I agree, and current narrative is reminiscent of the $NVDA DeepSeek selloff or the $GOOGL TurboQuant scare. Guess what happened? These scares once or twice a year all turn out to be immaterial to the overall AI buildout. Especially when we have contracted demand all the way into the 2030’s now from advanced packaging to memory procurement.

@KhalidIshaq85 I mean $ESMT just did ~$111m net income of the month of July off a $2.5B MC. And it looks like their core product prices are going to get hiked a lot H2 from new Trendforce data. The selloff looks ridiculous to me, but feel free to make your own decision on this.

NOR flash “Severe Supply Shortage” with high density continued increases of 90-110% for H2. I wonder who sells both high density NOR and SLC NAND? *cough cough, $ESMT* For H1 hikes: NOR: +100–120% SLC NAND: +130–150% For H2 hikes: High-density NOR: 90-110% in H2 SLC NAND: ~70–75%. Obviously there’s others from Winbond / Macronix / Gigadevice, but my idea and position with ESMT is that it’s the largest beneficiary of the shortage relative to size. (they sell NOR: >256Mb) The moderate bearish part is: “For mid- and low-capacity products of 128Mb and below, additional capacity from Chinese suppliers is gradually coming online. Price incre…

Man Ray: are you long Samsung? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: Samsung has memory LTAs extending to 2031? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: And it’s trading at ~2.8× 2027E P/E? Patrick: Yup. Man Ray: So you’re buying Samsung? Patrick: No, I’m selling on a 4% drop because X said memory will crash from AI slowdown

I assign essentially 0% probability that Anthropic or OpenAI will slow down frontier development in any meaningful way. And that majority of the "regulation" they try making is regulatory capture to slow down competition. 1. Anthropic/OpenAI will not willingly hand over their lead to Gemini, xAI, Meta, or another frontier lab. -> Elon will want a slowdown to catch up with OpenAI. -> OpenAI will want a regulatory framework to slow down xAI + competition. Every lab has an incentive to support rules that constrain competitors more than they constrain itself 2. The US is not going to meaningfully slow frontier AI development while China cont…

Tech people in real life: I have shares in “ $TSLA, $GOOGL, $SPCX. “ People on my X feed/comments: - Leveraged Micron, Sk Hynix calls all the way from $1M to $28M down to $4M - calls on short dated tanker freight futures because $AXTI 3000% 1Y returns wasn’t enough. - Long $PLTR short $LULU because inverse Burry indicators - Long Swedish high beta CW laser suppliers for CPO because it reminds them of $NVDA bottlenecking EML - “AI is going to end human civilization” so this is a signal for longer AI capex duration + trade wars so long $EQR cause tungsten. Gap between finance X and normal finance/tech people is also insane. I can’t help…

@x4tsr Not gonna happen. I see this as more regulatory capture, there’s no way Anthropic/OpenAI would slow down to let others catch up. Or have US to slow down and allow China to secretly leapfrog in AI capability.

It’s the weekend but surprised I missed this from $ORCL earnings. Implications for $NBIS to $IREN are pretty positive since: Oracle said all GPU capacity for renewal were resold +20% premium above previous contracts. Majority of the equipment was 4Y+ and older… So another L for the Burry’s rapid GPU depreciation thesis. And W for $NVDA and the Neocloud party.

@iyoumem I’m sorry to hear about this. This came across my feed randomly. If the family would like, I’m happy to cover all the remaining costs directly. Please reach out privately.

I think there’s a gap to fill… Since I believe retail deserves the same research and early thematic ideas that institutions access first. I feel like everyone understandably gravitates institutional as they grow. But helping retail has always been my priority. And that hasn’t changed even as I grew to 1M followers. I’m excited to see what we can cook up together soon chat.

What's the next $BWET if you guys have ideas? Need more weird ideas like short dated tanker freight future ETFs... I didn't know this existed until last week. https://t.co/kguL6svZNj

Apparently my "bottleneck thesis" has made it into a quant fund research pipeline? Hope the institutions enjoy reading my takes on DDR2, CW lasers, and InP substrates... Didn't expect to end up in the same paragraph as Trump on a Friday. https://t.co/j5leamPwJV

Looks like Situational Awareness is back: Sources say Leopold bought options in $AMD, $BE, $CRWV, and $DRAM. And was active in other stocks such as $SKHY, and $SNDK. Little surprising since option IV across the board is quite high. https://t.co/P2Pg5szbvO

X should go out and ban every network ring that pays others to quote/comment on their posts. If you want to see how it’s done: > companies pay influencers to comment/quote their posts (now sometimes with labels) > they spawn new accounts like ___ “finance” or ___ “<insert country here>”with a new affiliated account > when each company gets big enough they just interact with one another eg. quote posts to boost engagement. By the end each affiliate account ends up with tens/hundreds of thousands of followers. And they use it to boost their other account visibility. My worry is that X is just going to end up dominated by engagement netwo…

Haha I feel bad for the guy at the $SIVE booth. Genuinely thanks everyone for helping crowd source channel checks, really appreciate it! Think the most interesting update overall from Innolight channel checks was explicit confirmation that lasers across 70mW-200mW power range have seen ASP going up. Sivers also disclosed they raised prices. That should support gross margin expansion for laser suppliers in future quarters as higher pricing flows through.

Yep, I'm personally high conviction on the AI trade (especially photonics/memory) despite macro. - $NVDA gave forecasts for $1.3T hyperscaler capex ($100B+ above BofA analyst expectations) - $SPCX Wells Fargo forecasts are ~$263B for 2027. - $127B spend in 2027 for Anthropic/OpenAI model training + inference from internal investor documents (WSJ). - Even the Pentagon (US gov) is looking to fund the AI buildout, with $5B potentially into Fluidstack. What sectors do I think capex flows hit the hardest? Photonics + Memory. Trendforce for example est. DRAM and NAND to be 68% of hyperscaler capex in 2027. So when all that memory procuremen…

It's a macro market right now https://t.co/12ySQqZWrO

共和党が議会で多数派を維持できたら、トランプが成人1人につき5,000ドルを配ると約束している理由が、正直よく分からない。（総額約1.35兆ドル） それより、アメリカ中のトイレを、日本にあるような便座が温かくなるTOTO（5332.T）のトイレにアップグレードしたほうが、支持率はもっと上がるんじゃないかと思う。 計算してみた： 3億3,500万台のトイレをTOTO UltraMax II + S7Aに交換すると、約9,900億ドル。 設置費用まで含めると、総額は約1.3兆ドル。 僕の案のほうがかなり安い。

Wow, HBM reportedly drove up AI accelerator/card prices by 20-50% in China. So $SKHY, Samsung, $MU, should be happy to hear this: - Huawei has raised indicated pricing for the Ascend 950DT 20–50% above quotes from just 2 months ago - Cambricon's upcoming 690 is reportedly +20–30% Reuters stated that HBM acquired through grey market channels in China can cost several times regular pricing. As someone who is long memory, I'm happy about memory causing this much inflation.