Source item
Open original source ↗Yep, I'm personally high conviction on the AI trade (especially photonics/memory) despite macro.
- $NVDA gave forecasts for $1.3T hyperscaler capex ($100B+ above BofA analyst expectations)
- $SPCX Wells Fargo forecasts are ~$263B for 2027.
- $127B spend in 2027 for Anthropic/OpenAI model training + inference from internal investor documents (WSJ).
- Even the Pentagon (US gov) is looking to fund the AI buildout, with $5B potentially into Fluidstack.
What sectors do I think capex flows hit the hardest?
Photonics + Memory.
Trendforce for example est. DRAM and NAND to be 68% of hyperscaler capex in 2027.
So when all that memory procurement spend hits the balance sheets of $MU, $SNDK, Samsung, $SKHY with 70-80%+ margins.
I don't think these companies care about short term macro scares.
And when your leading memory companies are all allocating capacity for DDR5/HBM or high end memory, with little visibility on legacy memory supply coming online.
What does that say about the durability of ESMT/Etron/Winbond and others?
And when your optical content/GPU goes up for rubin ultra + $META / $GOOGL TPU v9, etc. Alongside TAM eg. $131.4 billion (+81% revision) for 2027 optical module forecasts.
Who benefits from supplying all that lasers during a shortage other than $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR?
I think the overwhelming fundamentals + growth of some of the AI sector companies will outperform macro.
Quoted context
These are the quoted author’s words.
@aleabitoreddit 一点都不害怕……
nicolesong68 ↗