Jim Bianco

One day tick chart of crude oil shows this delay did nothing lasting to depress higher crude prices. The reason is the Iran War was won about two weeks ago. This is now a war to open the Strait. And you just told the market the START of opening the Strait has been pushed off another 10 days. See the repost below. Twitter likes to talk about TACO, and I do too. But as @agnostoxxx so eloquently put it, this is now about NACHO. Not Actually Changing Hormuz Opening

TACO-ing or waiting for the Marines to get into position? Regarding "talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements ... and others, they are going very well." Six hours ago ... *TRUMP: DON'T KNOW IF WE'RE WILLING TO WORK ON DEAL WITH IRAN https://t.co/lEbuPXdkkq WTI futures reaction to the post above Note that now it only took minutes to reverse three-quarters of the decline. https://t.co/SEvBJUI8V9 Thinking out loud … Trump was on Fox News a little while ago saying the Iranians asked for 7 days and he gave them 10 days. 7 days is good Friday. Was potentially attacking a Muslim nation on Christian holiday a consideration? So he …

An October rate HIKE is back above 50% https://t.co/trhZ8mvmHL

Quick summary of the week: Monday, 48 hours almost up, we are going to blow everything up Wednesday, we are going to get a deal. Thursday, no deal, we are going to blow everything up. How many more cycles of this will we have by next week?

@jimiuorio I too am I Chicagoan, and I'm also a Cubs fan. But I have been to two openings days. One snowed. Almost froze to death. Was colder than a Bears playoff game.

By morning?

*USPS TO IMPOSE 8% FUEL SURCHARGE ON PACKAGES: WSJ

@BTCsupernova The job of the Big 10 is to lose, and get arrested ... see Michigan Football

Six of the sweet 16 teams are Big 10 teams. What is the national response to this? To scream college sports are broken and propose legislation to fix it. 😆 https://t.co/bvhr7pH9nq

The national average of gasoline prices is now up exactly $1.00 (34%) since the war began 25 days ago. https://t.co/8U1SgYsLux

First time ever! NCAA Tournament Sunday early primetime window (March 22): 19.7 million viewers 2026 Oscars the week before (March 15): 17.9 million The country is more interested in St. John’s/Kansas then Hollywood.

@OSINT_Strong @Headder86 Did the Carney use its CIWS?

And Trump just explained why there’s virtually no commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz right now. The Lincoln is ~600 miles off Iran’s coast. That gives it several minutes of warning time, plus an entire air wing, three destroyers, a submarine, and layered missile defenses. Opening the Strait is much harder. You’d need to send destroyers (or escorts) through waters that are often just a few miles from the Iranian coast. There, ships get only seconds — not minutes — to react to incoming missiles and drones. Commercial operators won’t move until the US Navy proves it’s safe. Until then, they’re sitting tight unless a deal is stru…

The day the war started (Feb 28), Fed fund futures were pricing in 2.5 rate Fed CUTS for 2026. Now they are pricing in 0.2 of a Fed rate HIKE for the rest of the year. https://t.co/kZikoSqzqz

Tick chart starting Friday afternoon. 10-year yield (white) Nearby WTI crude oil futures (blue) In a crisis, all correlations go to 1. https://t.co/0ubKfHkt9Q

https://t.co/ggC6AuaxGr

After hours risk markets are "popping" higher on this story. No word on if this includes opening the Strait of Hormuz (or they agree to keep it closed and stop shooting.) Channel 12s source is the Israeli Government, suggesting they are afraid Trump will TACO. ---- Times of Israel explanation: Channel 12 says, Jerusalem is concerned that Trump and his team want to push quickly for “a framework agreement, an agreement in principle” with Iran, rather than insisting on these demands as a condition for halting the war. According to three sources familiar with the details, the president’s top aides, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, have shaped…

So, we are waiting for a "tape bomb" at any moment saying either Iranians agreed to talk (positive) or not agreeing to talk (effectively ending the possibility of deal).

Yesterday was 22 days since it began. The national average of gasoline prices is up 97 cents (32%). https://t.co/n7ArwJXKGW

Bitcoin now down 5% since Trump’s 48 hour ultimatum. Markets open in 40 minutes https://t.co/FdLpQqqAjk

1/4 Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare. 10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes. Follow up 🧵 2/4 The immediate pushback is familiar: this “supply shock” will hurt real growth, so the Fed should cut rates. This well-known economist has been making exactly that argument. https://t.co/mON9BBqWX2 3/4 That is only half the equation. A supply shock hurts growth, but it also raises inflation, so the real question is which side dominates. In 2022, inflation rose…

Trump yesterday begins: If Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 hours from this exact point in time ... ---- The "exact point in time" he posted this was 7:44 PM ET, Sat March 21. So, does the bombing begin at 7:45 PM ET Monday, March 23??? https://t.co/DGcPe7ErSk

Iran is not backing down

Monday is going to be lit! *TRUMP SAYS READY TO DEPLOY ICE TO AIRPORTS ON MONDAY *TRUMP GIVES IRAN 48 HOURS TO OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ

In case you have not been keeping score the last 36 hours ... Question for those who think Trump will TACO on Iran: what exactly does that look like? Declare victory and pull out? Then what? Iran walks away with de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most important energy chokepoint. That is not peace. That is Tehran holding a veto over the global economy. They would have the power to disrupt flows, keep oil prices elevated, punish the West, and extract concessions. And once you TACO under those conditions, the risk of a wider regional war probably goes up, not down, because Iran’s neighbors will not accept that new reali…

1/2 About 40 minutes ago ... *TRUMP GIVES IRAN 48 HOURS TO OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ https://t.co/DL2vBkTJD4 2/2 Three-day tick chart of Bitcoin ... a proxy for how risk markets are viewing this announcement, now about 30 minutes old. https://t.co/Wyu1ctr6uE

2/6 MOVE (Merrill Option Volatility Estimate) is the "VIX of the bond market." It skyrocketed yesterday, rising almost 24 points (!) to the highest level since last April. https://t.co/rOkgurayam 3/6 The MOVE was up 28.23% yesterday. This is its largest daily rise since October 2020. Only four other instances since the end of the Great Recession in 2009 have seen the MOVE have a larger percentage rise than yesterday. https://t.co/MANJjhUqkK 4/6 The MOVE is the implied volatility of 30-day interest rate options. In other words, it is options traders' pricing in what they EXPECT upcoming volatility to be. A big up day like yesterday, c…

19 days into the war, and the U.S. national average of gasoline prices is up 93 cents (31%) Some comparisons (latest data, mostly March 21 prices) US (unleaded 87 octane) * Average, $3.93 gallon * Highest, California $5.69 gallon * San Francisco, $5.86 gallon * Lowest, Oklahoma, $3.21 gallon * Oklahoma City, $3.17 gallon EU-27 (unleaded Euro 95 octane) * Average, 1.71 Euros/Liter, or $7.49 gallon * Highest, Amsterdam, 2.573 Euros/liter, or $11.27 gallon * Lowest, Bulgaria, 1.331 euros/liter, or $5.83 gallon * London Average 1.46 GBP/liter, or $7.38 gallon Asia (unleaded octane-98 octane) * Hong Kong, 31.09 HKD/liter, or $15.03 gallon * T…

Iranian oil has been sanctioned for many years. The 140 million barrels he is referring to are part of the "dark fleet" that has been shipping Iranian oil to Asia (mainly China) for years. Iran gets money for oil, and China buys it at a discount. So, this oil already exists in the world market. It doesn't matter who buys it, or under what scheme (sanctioned through a dark fleet or legitimate open market sale), as a barrel sold anywhere, for whatever reason, adds to world supply. To emphasize, these barrels are already part of the world supply. These barrels are not randomly floating in a tanker on some ocean (for years?), waiting for sancti…

So, if the Senate is "too late" in confirming Warsh by May 15, then "too late" will stay as Fed Chairman! --- *POWELL: WOULD SERVE AS CHAIR PRO-TEM UNTIL SUCCESSOR CONFIRMED *POWELL: NO INTENTION TO LEAVE FED UNTIL DOJ INVESTIGATION OVER After that *POWELL: HAVEN'T MADE DECISION YET ON HOW LONG I'LL STAY AT FED