2026-03-22XThread

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In case you have not been keeping score the last 36 hours ... Question for those who think Trump will TACO on Iran: what exactly does that look like? Declare victory and pull out? Then what? Iran walks away with de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most important energy chokepoint. That is not peace. That is Tehran holding a veto over the global economy. They would have the power to disrupt flows, keep oil prices elevated, punish the West, and extract concessions. And once you TACO under those conditions, the risk of a wider regional war probably goes up, not down, because Iran’s neighbors will not accept that new reality. If you want markets to recover and crude to settle down, the answer is not a face-saving exit. It is taking away Iran’s ability to coerce traffic through Hormuz. Until that changes, the risk premium stays. Danny @citrinowicz is a former senior Israeli intelligence officer in charge is IDF intelligence on Iran. He is now a think-tank analyst regularly sought by mainstream outlets and policymakers. —— Many expect Trump to TACO, declare victory, and leave. Citrinowicz warns this would make everything far worse: it shreds U.S. deterrence and hands Iran permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has zero intention of reopening it. They’ll vow to “set the Gulf on fire,” and he believes they are deadly serious. They will attack desalination plants and power grids, and unleash the Houthis. To reopen the Strait of Hormuz, we either have to forcibly open it or find a diplomatic solution with hardliners who don’t want to deal with us. There is no third option, like TACO. https://t.co/gUj3NN6YGq

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From almost done, followed by close to winding down -- to a 48-hours ultimatum to Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz that the US doesn't use, and in any case, it would be very easy to re-open even by the NATO European cowards... https://t.co/ZkO7TFRZMi
JavierBlas ↗

Another statement that, beyond reflecting frustration, reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of Iran (and no — it’s not Venezuela). A. Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That’s not going to happen. In the coming days, we can expect Tehran to threaten to “set the Gulf on fire,” especially if the U.S. strikes critical infrastructure. B. At the same time, such a strike would likely accelerate the Houthis’ entry into the conflict — a player that will find it difficult to remain on the sidelines. C. It’s hard to reconcile how a president who emphasizes concern for the Iranian people can simultaneously threaten Iran’s destruction. He may believe deterrence through threats is sufficient — it isn’t. Such rhetoric will not shift Iran’s position; instead, it forces the president to choose: escalate and follow through, risking broader war, or back down and further erode U.S. deterrence. D. Above all, this kind of messaging highlights how inadequate the strategic preparation for this scenario has been — particularly the failure to fully account for Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. E. It is also plausible that Iran’s leadership will “send a message” during any ultimatum period by striking infrastructure in one of the Gulf states, signaling both capability and intent. At the same time, Gulf countries would likely accelerate efforts to de-escalate the conflict, as they would be the primary targets and bear the immediate costs of any escalation. F. If the U.S. wants the strait reopened, it will have to either use force or pursue regime change. There is no third option. #IranWar‌
citrinowicz ↗