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We can probably skip the waiting. In the next 10 days, Iran will: Not surrender Not accept the 15-point framework Not give up control over the Strait of Hormuz Continue strikes toward Israel and Gulf states That leaves the administration with three options: Keep negotiating, only to realize again that Iran isn’t backing down, and then decide whether to soften terms to get a deal Escalate militarily like attempting to seize Kharg Island or disputed islands near the Strait, a move that would prolong the conflict and trigger a sharper Iranian response (and Tehran is ready for this option based on Ghalibaf tweets) Decide to end the campaign, or extend the ultimatum yet again Either way, we are entering another ten days of attrition and During this window, Trump will likely face a defining choice: escalate further, disengage, or push for a negotiated agreement. #iran
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