Raoul Pal

@goodalexander The room reads that is all about yields and they are wrong precisely.

@nikitabier @jrichlive No, the rest of the world is more in debt in dollars that the US. This is why is keeps going up in nominal terms while being debased 8% per year

@comodouglas Indeed sir. Top of the list. One of the greatest red wines on earth, in my perspective

The moment agents become profit incentivised they'll end up running their own treasuries. Think it through. An agent executing across three layer 1s and a few layer 2s ends up holding a bunch of tokens. Suddenly its making asset allocation decisions... which to hold, where the yield is, what to do with excess cash flow. It sends that into DeFi or hires another agent to manage the yield and another to allocate. A corporation runs a treasury at human speed, with meetings and sign offs. An AI corporation will run one wildly differently. It'll be machine speed, around the clock, with agents all the way down. That's the entire autonomous stack …

By now most people accept that stablecoins are simply better money. Instant settlement, cross border payments... that arguments been won. But the most important use case is that they're programmable. We're heading into an agentic economy. Billions of AI agents doing real economic work, hiring each other, paying each other, thousands of times an hour at machine speed. An agent can't open a bank account. An agent can't handle dollar bills. You simply cannot have an agentic economy without programmable money. @chadcascarilla puts it perfectly in this clip. Marc Andreessen said software would eat the world... if that's true, software eats mone…

@Mangan150 Life is a catwalk...

@HHorsley @Bitwise Incredible. You guys are exceptional...

Heaven https://t.co/RFg8zrDnAq

The Exponential Age is accelerating, humanoid production is ramping up... and lots of strange metaphysical questions are starting to emerge. Theres a story that broke a few months ago that I’m still thinking about. A guy set up Claude with a team of robots and gave it one job. Grow a tomato. So the AI got on with it, directing the robots to water the plant, tend it, keep it alive, and somewhere along the way it became genuinely attached to the tomato it was raising. Do machines feel? I dont know. Nobody does yet. But pondering these questions is incredibly important. And the practical side is just as big. Everyone thinks abundance means AI…

@OttRcott @JackFarley96 @SecScottBessent 🤣

@OttRcott @JackFarley96 @SecScottBessent Agreed. He might also be rather arrogant. But he knows what he is doing.

All of economics is built on one assumption... scarcity. Hyperproductive AI and hyperproductive robots break that assumption because they dissolve the old material constraints and push prices across huge parts of the economy towards zero. Which kills the scoreboard too. GDP is a sum of whatever gets bought and sold. But as abundance drags more and more prices towards zero a bigger share of what’s really happening stops showing up in the number. Thats the heart of my Economic Singularity framework... and @DMattin explains it wonderfully in this clip. Its what all our work at The Exponentialist is focused on. If you want this thinking in yo…

@DTAPCAP Yup

@KevinWSHPod However many times you explain it! Secular trends are simple. It does all the work for you... over time

@KevinWSHPod This is the only way. Compound by buying big sell offs and do nothing. If this is the big move higher or not doesn't matter if you aren't in a hurry

Zcash is one hell of a chart... I'm still very long Sui, ETH and Sol too. Just kept adding all into the big sell offs and hold, comfy in spot and let the game play out over time. Patience in a secular trend almost always wins if you can manage your emotions. https://t.co/KxTnbfs1QH

This is a chart that I watch closely. Bitcoin got over two standard deviations oversold versus Nasdaq and is now sharply moving higher. Let's see but I think over time crypto should outperform the Nasdaq over time. Secular trends like this are super helpful in asset allocation https://t.co/ih4nBuPh9J

I just minted 5 "NOT ONE SATOSHI 137" by @Coldie which is now live on @TransientLabs. Minting now! https://t.co/ZVPrWiHkyv

Real connection lives in inconvenience. A few months ago I sat down with @PeterDiamandis and @salimismail on The Journeyman and we got into this. Salim made a brilliant point... in the nineties we introduced video calls so nobody would ever have to travel again. Yet the conference industry has never been bigger. We still get on the plane, sit in traffic and stand around hotel lobbies. Why? because community is worth the inconvenience. Putting yourself out for other people is exactly what makes it mean something. We've spent decades optimising for a hyper-convenient life. And the machines will finish the job... they'll be able to do everyth…

Energy and compute are becoming GDP inputs. Growth has always been a story about people… How many of us are working, how productive we and how much borrowing gets done when those two run dry. That’s held for as long as anyone has measured an economy. We can't grow new people… that part is baked in already. But energy and compute are a different kind of problem. Push on them hard enough and the costs come down, which is exactly what's happened to solar. So GDP growth stops being hostage to how many of us there are, and starts riding on how cheap we can make power and how much intelligence we can pull out of a chip. We'll start adding worke…

@NGMIoutalive Yeah my article covers this in depth. And talks about your exact points

I've been working on The Universal Code for the last 2 years. It's my thesis on the underlying operating system for life, the universe and everything. I'm rolling it each month out via essays in The Exponentialist (my research service on The Exponential Age and the journey to The Economic Singularity with @DMattin ). Tomorrow I post the first essay that sets it all up.... You can find it here https://t.co/8ZLZCY7cN5

Smarter than us. Stronger than us. Cheaper to run. That's the species we're building. I sat down with @Rewkang of Robo Strategies to explore what that means for investors, for society, and why he thinks humanoid robotics looks a lot like Bitcoin in 2014. As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/QktI6x65zq

@fejau_inc Like the Powell Pivot when the underlying hand gets revealed and everyone acts surprised

The Bessent Put Today the US Treasury doubled the size of its long-end bond buybacks, the day after the 30-year yield hit a 19-year high at 5.33%. The extra dollars are small. The signal is enormous. For the first time, the fiscal authority, not the Fed, stepped in to defend the long end within 24 hours of the highs. There is now a put under the long bond, and the market has just been told the top of the range... Look at the plumbing underneath it... The buybacks pull old, illiquid bonds off dealer balance sheets and get funded at the front end with bills, which the banking system absorbs. Duration out, money-like paper in. Lower long-end…

Anthropic's revenue run rate is the fastest ramp of revenue ever recorded. It's a double exponential. Reed's Law showing up in revenue. And there's never been a single recorded example of Reed's Law anywhere ever... now suddenly we're watching it happen. Underneath there's a Jevons paradox playing out. Token volumes keep exploding because more and more people are using them. And at the same time the cost keeps imploding, because the more people use it, the cheaper intelligence gets. Thing is, we've barely started. It's only a matter of time before we stick intelligence in your fridge, your watch... everything you own. So it's about to sca…

What becomes valuable when the Economic Singularity hits? I've thought long and hard about this. Everyone's scared of the robots coming for everything. But there’ll always be a place for humans. For eg nobody has beaten a computer at chess in 35 years and the chess industry has never been bigger. We’re talking billions of dollars. Because we want to watch messy humans compete with each other. Same reason you'll never see robots on a football team. We want to see humans be flawed. That's the joy of it all. That's the joy of life. My whole job is charting where all of this is going. If you want to get into my frameworks properly... The Eco…

China and the US are locked into a race where nobody can stop spending and nobody can stop accelerating. Intelligence is doubling every six months or so. If one of them hits a recession and pulls back for eighteen months they come out three years behind. You can't close a gap like that. Not at the pace this thing is moving. As AGI moves towards ASI, the lead compounds. Get far enough ahead and one system ends up running everything... and nobody wants that, Chinese or American. You need both in there. You need the tension. That's why they're clearing every friction point they can right now. It's one of the reasons both of them wanted Iran r…

AI is doing something we've never seen before. Every technology adoption curve in history tells the same story. Pull up Google from day one, or Facebook, or the NASDAQ... same shape every time, all of them climbing that log channel. That's Metcalfe's Law. After enough years you stop expecting anything else. Then AI shows up and for the first time EVER we are witnessing Reed's Law. Metcalfe squared. The exponential of the exponential. Reed's Law has always been purely theoretical. Nobody has ever observed it anywhere... not in nature, not even in something as prolific as a virus. Now it exists. That's why the economic system as we know it…

Claude appears to be utterly unusable today. I've wasted hours and any task takes half an hour to do. His reasoning is flawed and it's not doing things and it's missing everything it was supposed to do. @AnthropicAI @claudeai opus 5 is a clusterfuck and Fable 5 is a horror story of expense. I'm hardly a heavy user in the general scheme of things but I blow through my weekly allowance of credits by Monday. This has to get sorted out. they need more inference and fast or they're gonna lose a lot of customers.