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Open original source ↗The Bessent Put
Today the US Treasury doubled the size of its long-end bond buybacks, the day after the 30-year yield hit a 19-year high at 5.33%. The extra dollars are small. The signal is enormous.
For the first time, the fiscal authority, not the Fed, stepped in to defend the long end within 24 hours of the highs. There is now a put under the long bond, and the market has just been told the top of the range...
Look at the plumbing underneath it...
The buybacks pull old, illiquid bonds off dealer balance sheets and get funded at the front end with bills, which the banking system absorbs. Duration out, money-like paper in. Lower long-end volatility raises the collateral value of every Treasury in the repo system, which is itself a liquidity easing. And the QRA language quietly changed two weeks ago to allow exactly this.
It isn't happening in isolation. This month's joint yen intervention was about stopping Japan from ever becoming a forced seller of Treasuries, and the new dollar swap lines across Asia and the Gulf keep the region's dollar debts rolling, with China the ultimate beneficiary. A weaker dollar is the tool that brings the big foreign buyers, Japan and eventually China, back to the long end. Supply managed on one side, demand rebuilt on the other.
With a long end now potentially anchored, the steepening of the curve should come from Warsh, who will probably deliver his part of the grand bargain between the Fed and the Treasury.
All of this is to fund the hyperscaler capex along with government debt. For the first time since the GFC both public and private debt as a % of GDP are growing and both are vital.
This is the everything code fully at play and brings together many threads I've been talking about for the last two years. The debt must be serviced and liquidity, by whichever mechanism they can route it, is the method.
Financial conditions started easing through both legs at once today, and financial conditions are the first domino in the sequence we have been mapping all year.
To be warned this is not an instant liquidity flood happening right now. This is the entire scaffolding being set up for the much larger game. The Great Game is the funding of the aging population along with the funding of the new demographic of AI and robots. Both games are too big and too important to stop. The funding of the the intelligence build out is the most important game of all time. It is too big to fail.
The full Flash Update is coming for GMI and RV Pro members came out earlier today: the full mechanism, the 2011 and 1940s precedents, what it likely means for every asset class, and what would prove the thesis wrong.
Overall today was a big marker point on a story that I've been predicting for many years and have the receipts to prove it. The outcome is always MOAR COWBELL!