Raoul Pal

How do you value a blockchain? Most people try to run a discounted cash flow model on it, like its a company. Ive had that argument plenty of times over the years and its nonsense. Invert it instead. Imagine you switch Ethereum off tomorrow. Every stablecoin on it, all of DeFi, every layer 2, every NFT... all of it goes to zero in an instant. Everything that would disappear is what Ethereum is actually worth. The reason these networks attract so much capital is that they are dense with intelligence. Ethereum has the most developers, its programmable, it has the deepest markets and the whole ecosystem built on top of it. Solana and Sui are…

The next four years are going to feel very different to anything we've lived through. Your wages havent kept up with the cost of living for years now. That's the Everything Code. Governments have to keep debasing the currency to fund everything, and it's eating into your pay every single year. That part isnt new. What is new is that we have maybe four years before the world as we know it stops working the way it does now. The exponential technologies... AI, robotics, energy, crypto... are moving so fast that the systems built for the old world cant keep up. Politics gets angrier and more divided. You cant trust what you see or hear anymore.…

Most agents wont care which chain they're on. @0xvati and I had a great chat about this recently Humans pick chains a bit like football teams... philosophy, ideology, community. But agents dont give a crap about any of that. As Arpan put it, a rational agent will execute on any chain that is, say, 10 milliseconds faster. Play it forward and the chains end up competing on efficiency for machine users. Cheaper, faster rails make it worth running more agents onchain, and more agents push the rails to get cheaper again. More agentic activity onchain makes the whole thing go exponential @0xvati I wrote an article this week on why most chains …

Demographics, debt, debasement. Three words that drive everything. It starts with an aging population. Fewer workers means slower growth, so governments borrow to keep the economy moving. The debt keeps growing because the demographics leave them no other option. That debt was never going to be paid back. So it gets managed instead... by debasing the currency. More money created every year, each unit worth a little less than the last. Slowly enough that most people never notice. That is The Everything Code. Debasement sets the real hurdle rate for your money, and over the long run only two assets have cleared it... crypto and technology. …

There might be a great trade in bonds right now... and I'm going to reject it because it doesnt match my hypothesis. Governments keep running more debt. That debt gets paid for by debasing the currency, and your savings lose ground to it every year. That's the core of The Everything Code and it makes my job simple... own the assets that outperform debasement. The easy trades are the long-term secular trends in technology and crypto. A bond rally might even help my book through falling rates elsewhere. But a good trade that sits outside your hypothesis is still the wrong trade for you... This week's Journeyman is a recording of the workshop…

my trading philosophy workshop is starting in 10 minutes, you can tune in here: https://t.co/5cqW2Bsb1m all you need to watch it is a free real vision account

Hopefully you'll find this useful. Lots of learnings over the years to share... free to join

In the drawdown from last year’s highs, SUI fell about 80%, SOL about 70%, ETH about 60%. Brutal. But the charts missed what was underneath. On all three, economic density didn’t move. Users left, as they always do in a bear market, but the capital each remaining user had deployed stayed exactly where it was... the tourists and the bots went, and the people who stayed kept doing what they’d been doing. I spent a lot of time measuring this: stablecoin float, DeFi TVL and applications shipped per daily user, across every major L1. Why? Because I think it’s the truest measure of longevity there is. Every other L1 I measured lost density along…

I love these Festivals of Trading ! We've done a few over the years and thousands of people join to learn to hone their trading skills together and the community comes alive as everyone helps each other. Join us and we can all Unfuck out future together

The rails of the agent economy will end up concentrated in a handful of L1s... As agents do more of the transacting, all of that economic activity has to get coordinated somewhere, and very few networks can actually carry it. So your whole job is to figure out which chains are capable of hosting the agent economy... and then just accumulate as much a possible. I wrote my thoughts on this up in full yesterday. Why most chains die and how to find the winners: https://t.co/MnJ2dXj58D

Tomorrow I'm running a live workshop inside Real Vision on my trading philosophy. Its free. But I want to explain why Im doing it, because this isnt the usual “come join us” post. I started Real Vision because I felt financial media was failing the people who needed it. For years I wrote GMI for the biggest hedge funds and family offices in the world... but these were people who already had every edge. So the idea was simple. Go and find the best investors on the planet, ask them how they think, and open that up to everyone. That was over a decade ago and I think it matters more now than it ever has. We probably have four years left of th…

Most stuff in crypto goes to zero because of adoption... A network gets more useful as more people use it, and that usefulness pulls in the next wave of users. Persistent attention keeps that loop running long enough to matter. But we don't see that persistence in many things. I wrote up my full thoughts on this today: why most chains die, and how to weed out the survivors. As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/MnJ2dXj58D

There is so much value in joining @RealVision for free including $100k prizes for the Trade Ideas competition. Unfuck your future !

@comodouglas It's nothing without the community

Exactly this. I'm proud of Real Vision. There is nothing like it and it's free to join

Real Vision and its incredible community is in the business of unfucking your future. We only have a few years left before everything changes... oh and we will give away $100k to help

We’ve just passed 1,000 pre-orders of The Everything Code. Thank you to everyone who has already ordered one... I didn’t expect to get there this quickly, and it means a lot. Small ask, if you were planning to read it anyway... please preorder it rather than waiting for November 3rd. Preorders matter more than people think. Every one of them gets counted as a sale on launch day, so a thousand of them landing at once is what pushes a book up the rankings in that first week. And the rankings are what get it in front of people who don’t follow me and have never heard of me... which is exactly who I wrote it for. It’s the first time all of my …

Kevin is the best in the business ... he has worked hard to become the most thoughtful interviewer and is a great person too. Always a highlight for me

Spoke at Sui Basecamp in Singapore about where all of this is going... Once you have an infinite population of economic actors, all running on compute that keeps getting more efficient, GDP growth goes crazy. The whole GDP formula blows up. By the mid-2030s its not even a measure we care about anymore. Everything collapses into one formula... intelligence per unit of energy. Markets, blockchain, geopolitics, politics... all of it is organising around that one thing right now. And its going to happen much faster than anyone is prepared for.

Hopefully this helps a bit. We've got lots of great content and an onboarding pack to help you in your journey in Unf*cking your futures. It's all free and we are giving away $100,000 to help!

@VanArman Wow

Robots are going to order robots for robots. Thats the moment the exponential gets steeper... and its coming. Today humans are still the ones ramping the factories. Elon, Figure and the Chinese all say the same thing. Robots will be maybe the largest physical product ever built, in scale and TAM. All of them are ramping production as fast as they can. That first phase is exponential on its own. The next phase is the recursive one, the same loop agents already run in software. Robots will order more robots. Those robots build the next ones, and the loop stops waiting for us altogether... I wrote the long version of this earlier in the week…

@VanArman Yes agreed. I canceled all my financial market software like. Bloomberg ($30k a year)

By 2030 it should be pretty clear that the economy, markets and life will be in the midst of the biggest change in history and things will get weird... I've been warning about this for the last 2 years. We now only have 4 years left and it's becoming ever more clear....

Jon the free Trade Ideas competition free on Real Vision for $100,000 in prizes and a whole lot of learnings to help you win...

AI agents stopped being tools. They're becoming workers. I sat down with @EMostaque to explore how fast intelligence is getting cheaper, what it means for jobs and robotics, and why energy and compute may be the real bottleneck. As ever, please enjoy! https://t.co/QjLNOovaBe

Big month coming up at Real Vision... Our trading competition kicks off on October 19th. Its open to anyone with a free membership. You post three trade ideas inside the platform, the market scores them, and you can win up to $100K in prizes. But we're not throwing you in cold. Next week we're running two days of workshops with myself @Jamie1Coutts @CalebFranzen @NathanBiyond @CryptoWithKris @AndreasSteno @PeterLBrandt @forexstophunter Plus youll get a free trading agent to use throughout the whole competition. Nothing to lose and a lot to learn… see you in there. Sign up for free here: https://t.co/MMJ3cGrAtF

Since we first started measuring economies, GDP has only ever been able to grow three ways. Population growth, plus productivity growth, plus debt growth. That equation is The Everything Code. And it's what has left us in the mess we're in today. We have too few workers and too much debt. When productivity cant fill the gap, the only lever left is more debt... and the only way to carry that much debt is to debase the currency. That is why everything feels more expensive every year and why your savings never seem to keep up. Except now, for the first time in history, we have a way out. AI and robots change the equation itself. They add wor…

Coming from Peter, this one means a lot. Thank you Peter. Macro, crypto and exponential technology are all one story. The Everything Code is the first time I've put that story down in one place. Why currencies are being debased by roughly 8% a year Why only crypto and tech have outrun it Why demographics sit underneath all of it And what you actually do with your money once you understand that So here's the ask, and I need your help with this one... The book comes out November 3 and preorders are a big part of whether it gets seen at launch. If I've ever helped you make sense of whats going on, please consider preordering a copy. If you …

By my measurement, the efficiency of intelligence output is doubling roughly every five months. This isn't the models getting a bit better... this is the actual amount of intelligence you get out of each unit of energy, doubling, every five months... and the doubling time is shrinking. Nothing in human history has compounded like this. Not electricity, not the internet. And there's no playbook for it, because every institution we have was built for a world where things changed over decades. This is what I call The Economic Singularity. Somewhere around 2030 to 2032 the machine economy starts moving faster than the instruments we use to mea…