Kevin Paffrath

Elon Musk: Eventually, the @tesla #roadster will be the ONLY manually driven car Tesla makes.

Elon Musk, "uhhh, success isn't guaranteed" tonight. "It'll probably work." #roadster

I think this #roadster event is really good marketing for the merger of $SPCX and $TSLA - might be the purpose too.

Elon Musk opens up #roadster even with "we need an audience to prove this event isn't AI or SI" This is "better than any James Bond car"

The Tesla Roadster Event LIVE w/ Meet Kevin [Elon Musk Reveal!] https://t.co/WBogw5b45L

The Iran window opens TUESDAY. ✅ Houthis say they fired missiles at Riyadh's airport Monday. ✅ Brent ~$106 Thursday, about flat. ➡️ Production is intact, so the market shrugs. ➡️ Markets only pay for barrels actually lost. ✅ Everything's been tried except a deal on Hormuz, per Goldman's desk. ➡️ Yep. That's the release valve. 😇 If we get a deal with Iran, October 20th to 27th is the window. ✅ The Fed meets Oct 27-28. ➡️ A deal first lets the Fed look through war inflation. ➡️ No deal? October & December hikes are both live. ➡️ IMO the deal is already sitting on Trump's desk. 😇 It's time to actually have the balls to sign this deal with Ira…

Your gym is SCARED of AI. ✅ Planet Fitness fell 9.45% in one day in September. ✅ Same day: NYT -7.2%. Schwab, Allstate & Intuit down 3.9% to 6.1%. ➡️ That's Goldman's "consumer inertia" basket. ➡️ The fear: AI agents find the cancel button for you. ➡️ An agent can shop 40 insurance quotes before you find your login. ➡️ So "they'll forget to cancel" gets a LOT harder as a business model. 😇 You know what I actually think is going to be a huge beneficiary of investing in artificial intelligence? Netflix. ➡️ Why? Agents cancel the stuff you forget about. You don't forget Netflix. 😇 We are willing to pay for good entertainment ✅ Netflix just cu…

Gold popped ~1.8% Thursday. I don't care! My next gold peak: sometime between 2033 & 2035. Gold peaks 3 to 5 years after the money printer turns on, & Warsh isn't printing. Bearish since Jan 30! https://t.co/sfUxsC26Zi More at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

More at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

$TSM's 2027 worry? The price of YOUR next phone. ✅ Record profit, up 68.7% in a year. ✅ Q4 revenue guided UP ~14% from Q3. ✅ CEO on AI demand: "extremely robust," "no sign of a slowdown." ✅ Yet: "we are being prudent in our business planning going into 2027." ✅ His reason: rising component prices are hitting price-sensitive gadgets. ➡️ Translation: pricey memory is squeezing phones & PCs. ✅ JPMorgan says the same: PC costs are up on memory. ✅ The stock still fell Thursday. ➡️ I've said memory peaked in 2026. ➡️ When memory gets cheaper, Apple, AMD & Nvidia WIN! ➡️ That's the hardware recovery I'm waiting for. More at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

🚨 The retail sales "beat" was almost ENTIRELY gas. Gas stations +6.4% in ONE month. Ex-gas: just +0.2%. The control group MISSED: +0.1% vs 0.3% expected. People paid more at the pump. Real shopping barely moved! https://t.co/A4vlsd9egx More at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

🚨 $TSLA reveals the Roadster tonight at 5:55 PM PT. Warsh speaks at 8:30 PM PT. Same night! Does this mean we are about to ROCKET SHIP?! https://t.co/mPQ8dI9pLA More at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

HOLY KAMOLY! $QQQ low this morning? $715.43. We said “buy the dip on $715 bounce”!!! Sent heads up and sent alert when we bought! IMO somebody got liquidated & hardware is a buy-the-dip opportunity. -bought 6 figures worth https://t.co/ezr530hKYr Portfolio Transparency Alerts at https://t.co/l7DltAzM7z

We’re all about to meet The Great Leofold the Second. Leveraged Hedgie Liquidation #2 of 2026 🤣

🚨 $CRWV credit default swaps JUST hit ~1,000 bps. Implies about a 63% chance of default within 5 years, vs ~30% a year ago! -not great Via Bloomberg: https://t.co/EAaPVL7Hdv

Goldman BLEW its inflation call. ✅ January: core PCE at 2.3% by August. ✅ Actual: 3.0%. ➡️ That misses their own number by about 30%. ✅ Biggest culprit, per their own post-mortem? AI. ➡️ The biggest story in markets. Missed in their own forecast. ✅ Computer software prices rising for the first time since 1998, per Rabobank. ✅ Daly: "These hyperscalers aren't very interest rate-sensitive." 😇 They hike for oil or AI. They don't actually stop oil prices or AI. ✅ Goldman's new call: mostly temporary. Core PCE ~2.2% by end of 2027. ➡️ Same desk that had 2.3% by August. I'll wait for proof. 🚨 Iran energy was about 0.3 points of the miss too. Oil…

Agentic AI use burns 5x the tokens humans do, per Andreessen Horowitz. imo, that's going to 10-100x very soon. https://t.co/DrZLXdJ6BV

Memory is cracking. ✅ Goldman's memory basket: -9.3% in one week. ✅ AI semis: -6.7% the same week. ✅ Micron broke under $1,000 Monday. 😇 I'm bearish memory and the memory cycle. ✅ China's CXMT: 10% of global DRAM revenue in Q2, per Counterpoint. ✅ Targeting 15%. ➡️ Basically, memory is a commodity. More supply, lower prices. ➡️ So who wins when memory gets cheap? Apple, AMD, Nvidia. 😇 Until you get an Iran deal, hardware is probably going to suck wind. 🚨 If Washington blocks Chinese DRAM, the shortage could last. ✅ SK Group's chairman says maybe until 2030.

🚨 PPI INFLATION came in at DOUBLE expectations this morning. So yields should be going up. Instead, the 10-year FELL about 10 bps & $TLT is up, forming a bottom ~$78! MY take? Fear of the AI-money-suck ($140b in 10 days of raising..) is getting people to buy a risk free 5%! https://t.co/R6wEJZX5Up ✅ September PPI: +1.3% vs 0.6% expected. ✅ Biggest jump since March 2022. 😇 80% of this increase fuel, baby, 50% gasoline. ✅ Retail sales control group: 0.1% vs 0.3% expected. ➡️ Strip out gas and the consumer is cooling. ✅ The 10-year still FELL about 10 bps. 😇 5.27 was going to be the top in the 10-year Treasury yield. ✅ Anthropic Q3 rev…

BREAKING: X is coming for Youtube. X is now offering $5,000 to post 15 videos on X in 30 days. Wow! https://t.co/B7iUo1h23q

Buy.

*The Critical Release of the PPI & Retail Sales Report* FED RATES https://t.co/myhctEK8Pi

Workers are F**ked. Paychecks are disappearing. Again. ✅ Real hourly earnings: -0.5% in September alone. ✅ -0.7% over the past year [BLS]. 😇 The workers are getting crushed. ✅ Fed Beige Book: high-income households drove spending in over half of districts. ✅ Five districts: firms trimming hiring after investing in AI. ✅ Netflix cutting ~1,000 jobs. About 6% of staff. 😇 Companies will make more money, but people will make even less money. 😇 Layoffs are probably going to be the Grim Reaper that kills this party. ➡️ So far, layoffs are still getting absorbed. ➡️ Jobless claims Thursday morning tell us if that holds.

Is $TLT about to MOON?!? ✅ 10-year hit 5.33% Wednesday morning on the print. ✅ Closed near 5.19%. Right back at Tuesday's level. ✅ 2-year held ~4.80%. ✅ 10-2 spread: under 40 bps. ➡️ Basically, bonds read it as a slowdown. ✅ Goldman: long yields 40 to 50 bps above fair value. ✅ Their year-end 10-year call: 4.75%. ➡️ My 5.27% peak call from Sept 29: one morning above it, then back under. 😇 So, the more people get nervous about hardware, the more TLT actually confirms its bottom. 😇 I actually think bonds go burr on an Iran deal. TLT goes burr on an Iran deal. 🚨 Goldman flags unresolved energy risk. One more hit on Saudi oil and 5.33% comes …

CPI came in HOT. ✅ 0.6% in ONE month. 3.7% for the year. ✅ Core 0.3% and 2.6%. Both above forecast. ✅ Gas up 9.1% in a month. Over half the jump. ➡️ Half of all categories now running over 3%. ➡️ That's the line Warsh keeps bringing up. 😇 Like even if you win, you're still a loser. ✅ October hike odds: 22% before the print. 49% right after. ✅ About 33% by Wednesday afternoon. ➡️ PPI and retail sales Thursday morning. ➡️ Hot again and October is back on. 😇 The Iran deal just became more important because inflation's just not receding on its own.

https://t.co/eHZkKawcsZ

🚨 Anthropic: 45% revenue increase vs Q2. Honestly, very impressive!

Market sees a 66% chance of NO rate hike in October, despite hot CPI. -is something breaking? https://t.co/L9CtXfuNOM 🚨 🚨 Use code MeetKevin when you sign up for Kalshi, and get $25 when you make your first trade! https://t.co/dqvM3duY9L 🚨 🚨 (Paid Sponsor)

Fed is starting to notice AI can cause job loss. ➡️ Not in highly skilled. ➡️ Maybe not in long-term. ➡️ But short term? AI might offset the need to hire. ➡️ ➡️ Reduced staffing ➡️ ➡️ Delayed hiring ➡️ ➡️ Less job creation Might dampen their desire to hike. https://t.co/rcxfuuX2UV

💀 Private credit shadow default rates have DOUBLED -per JPM https://t.co/ljm8Phb9Px