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Open original source ↗Goldman BLEW its inflation call.
✅ January: core PCE at 2.3% by August.
✅ Actual: 3.0%.
➡️ That misses their own number by about 30%.
✅ Biggest culprit, per their own post-mortem? AI.
➡️ The biggest story in markets. Missed in their own forecast.
✅ Computer software prices rising for the first time since 1998, per Rabobank.
✅ Daly: "These hyperscalers aren't very interest rate-sensitive."
😇 They hike for oil or AI. They don't actually stop oil prices or AI.
✅ Goldman's new call: mostly temporary. Core PCE ~2.2% by end of 2027.
➡️ Same desk that had 2.3% by August. I'll wait for proof.
🚨 Iran energy was about 0.3 points of the miss too. Oil over $100 keeps it sticky.