Peter Schiff

Trump's latest lie is that the war will end immediately after the elections. The spin is that Iran is only holding out to influence the outcome of the election. It's a very convenient take, as it lets Republicans off the hook, assuming voters are dumb enough to buy the excuse.

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If you think federal budget deficits are high now, wait until after the midterms, when the Democrats control both houses of Congress. They'll pass massive spending bills that Trump will have no choice but to sign, given the leverage Democrats will have to investigate his grifts.

Despite tripling its longer-term Treasury buyback, yields are spiking to new highs. The yield on the 10-year is 4.84% and the yield on the 30-year is 5.3%. Gold's $60 gain has been cut in half, but if traders understood what this means, gold would have added to its earlier gains.

Oil is over $95 per barrel, despite the fact that the Trump administration has been rapidly draining the SPR to keep oil prices suppressed prior to the midterms. Imagine how much higher oil prices will be by the general election in 2028, if the SPR has been empty for over a year. WTI is over $96 now. Brent is over $101.

The Bond Market Is About to Break... And Stocks Go With It New episode. https://t.co/M2PFlYRAbK https://t.co/M2PFlYRAbK

China is the clear winner of Trump's trade war. While his tariffs succeeded in reducing the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China, our overall goods trade deficit has barely improved, despite Americans paying higher prices. Meanwhile, China's overall goods surplus has soared.

The nickel and copper in modern nickels are now worth 7.76 cents, 55% more than the cost of buying nickels from the bank at face value. The U.S. government stopped making pennies last year. Soon it may stop making nickels too. Buy yours while you can. Much better than Treasuries.

Despite copper trading at a record high priced in dollars, priced in gold it's actually cheap. For the copper-to-gold ratio to get back to its historical average, copper must rise 60% to over $11 per pound. But gold won't stay at $4,400, so copper's rise could be much greater.

With copper at $6.85 per pound, the melt value of a pre-1982 penny is 4.46 cents. Even modern pennies, made mostly of zinc, have a current melt value of 1.07 cents. Pennies are a much better investment than Treasuries. They're not only risk-free, but the upside potential is huge.

When it comes to industrial commodities, oil may get all the headlines, but check out copper. Today it's trading at a new record high, above $6.83 per pound, up nearly 60% since Trump took office. This does not jibe with the Fed's view that inflation is headed back down to 2%.

President Trump and members of his administration routinely tell obvious lies when they speak about the U.S. economy. As a result of their lost credibility, you can't believe anything they say when they speak about Iran or other issues, even though those lies may not be obvious.

Happy Labor Day. If you work for a small business, as you enjoy a paid day off, consider that no one labors harder than your boss. Without the entrepreneur taking risks, your job wouldn't exist. Employees get paid no matter what. Employers only get paid if their risks pay off.

Bond Yields Just Hit a 2007 High... Every Buyer Became a Seller https://t.co/61JCX4I0Zc

Bond Yields Just Hit a 2007 High... Every Buyer Became a Seller New Episode. https://t.co/CWCtQR2AmI

Republicans were rightly concerned about the diminished mental acuity of former President Biden. Based on his Truth Social posts, Trump isn't playing with a full deck either. Economic ignorance isn't enough to explain the absurdity of the president's posts. Silence is hypocrisy.

If Trump carried out his threat to ban trade with nations that have trade surpluses with us, soon he'd have to shut off global trade completely, as nations with trade deficits would flip to surpluses, as we buy more from them and they buy less from us and more from other nations.

Trump threatened that if the Fed doesn't lower interest rates, he'll cut off all trade with countries that run trade surpluses with the U.S. He claims that's better than tariffs. This would crash the U.S. economy, as a shortage of goods would send prices and unemployment soaring.

Trump claims the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world, like “the old days.” But in the old days the U.S. was a creditor nation, had balanced budgets, a smaller federal government, trade surpluses, a low national debt, high savings, and was on the gold standard.

Kevin Hassett keeps saying the U.S. economy is booming. By what metrics are we experiencing an economic boom? On many of the most important measures the economy is weaker now than it was at the end of Biden's term, when Trump claimed the U.S. had the worst economy in its history.

70% of the jobs supposedly created in August were in food and beverage service, education, and healthcare, with better than one third of total jobs for the month going to waiters and bartenders. I wonder what percent have college degrees and how much they owe in student loans.

Financial markets are reacting to the August jobs report, which showed 162,000 jobs added, more than triple the estimate. But what are the odds that this is the actual number? Based on recent trends, it’s highly likely that this big beat will eventually be revised down to a miss!

I wonder how many more times Warsh can talk about hiking interest rates to fight inflation, without ever actually hiking them, before investors stop reacting to his words. Once words no longer affect markets, Warsh will face far more substantial market pressure to act. Got gold?

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Despite paying tariffs, Americans are losing big on trade under Trump. The July U.S. trade deficit soared over 24% to $88.4 billion. That's the largest monthly deficit since the tariff front-running month of March 2025. The deficit in July 2024 under Biden was just $78.8 billion.

Fed Governor Waller said if there's "continued progress toward our 2 per cent goal," he'd support keeping interest rates on hold. But inflation has made no progress in returning to 2% in years. Warsh said inflation has been too high, and Waller seems OK with letting it stay high.

Fed Governor Waller said he's inclined to keep rates on hold, but if inflation comes in hot, he'd "consider" a rate hike. Considering a hike is not the same as committing to an actual rate hike. Plus, a quarter-point hike will do nothing to cool inflation. Gold is up over $100.

Many are dismissing the rise in Treasury yields as not reflecting a problem with the U.S., as rising yields are a global phenomenon. But this overlooks the fact that the U.S. is not the only country to have issued too much debt and which will resort to inflation to repudiate it.

If strong economic growth is the reason Treasury yields are rising, why is the yield on Swiss Government 10-year bonds still under 45 basis points, about the same level as four years ago? If it’s just about governments competing for capital, Swiss yields should be rising too.

It's ridiculous to claim that Treasury yields aren't rising due to increased inflation expectations, a loss of confidence in U.S. fiscal policy, declining Fed credibility and questions over its independence, or de-dollarization, as those are the most obvious reasons for the rise.