Peter Schiff

The average yield on 10-year Treasuries during the 1980s was 10.6%, and during the 1990s it was 6.7%. Yields should be higher now as we are a much worse credit risk given the size of our debt and the rate at which it's increasing. So the current 4.8% yield won't stay this low.

If a 4.8% yield on a 10-year Treasury seems high, during the 1970s the average yield was 7.5%. During that decade the national debt averaged about $500 billion, 1/80th of its present size. Yes, inflation as measured by the now rigged CPI was higher then, but that'll soon change.

Gold sold off on the belief the Fed will raise interest rates to fight inflation. In the unlikely event the Fed actually follows through, it'll lose the fight. Though nominal rates may rise, real rates will fall as inflation soars. That's bullish for gold. https://t.co/CY02g7N0Nj

Even if the Fed hikes rates, markets will immediate price in the next one. Since rate hikes will be big enough to weaken the economy, raise unemployment, and grow federal deficits, but too small to stop inflation from rising, the Fed may conclude rate hikes aren't worth the risk.

Secretary @howardlutnick wants tariffs to force semiconductor companies to manufacture in the U.S. so American customers won't have to pay tariffs. Even if that happens, American customers will still pay more for semiconductors than had they been able to buy imports tariff-free.

The 10-year Treasury yield is above 4.8%. The 30-year yield is near 5.3%. While these yields may seem high relative to what we've experienced in the recent years, given historic averages and the much larger size of our debt, they're actually still low and have a long way to rise.

The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.81%, oil is near $92, and the labor market is weakening. The Fed is in a box of its own design. Do nothing and inflation and unemployment both rise. Do something and it's the same result, only faster. Do what's needed and it's a financial crisis.

The yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds hit 3% today, for the first time in 30 years. I forecast this on my podcast when the BOJ drew a line in the sand at 50 basis points. This is a huge problem for Japan, but a harbinger of an even bigger problem for the U.S. Got Gold?

Oil is breaking out, now trading above $90. It won't be long before it's over $100. Not only will this push up the CPI and bond yields, but it will make driving to the polls in November much more costly for voters. The politics get even worse if the Fed hikes rates in September.

When Kudlow said that Trump sometimes embellishes things a wee bit, which was a polite way of admitting he often tells huge lies, Bessent immediately replied, “Your words, not mine, your words, Larry.” Bessent is not just the Treasury Secretary, he's the Secretary of Ass Kissing.

Kudlow claims we are still experiencing the hangover from Biden inflation. But during the first two years of Biden we experienced the hangover from the inflation created under Trump. He also said we don't need socialism, but he has no problem defending Trump's socialist policies.

Fed Governor Barr said, “If inflation appears not to be moderating sufficiently, then I think we should act decisively to raise rates.” Inflation hasn't moderated for years. What's he waiting for? Plus, a 25 basis point hike is not decisive. Neither is growing the balance sheet.

Gold is down over $100 as the 10-year Treasury yield flirts with 4.8%. But the higher yields rise, the bigger federal deficits swell, the weaker the economy gets and the more inflation the Fed creates in response. This couldn't be more bullish for gold. https://t.co/CY02g7N0Nj

As long as deficit spending continues, the Fed will keep printing too much money and buying Treasuries. Therefore, small interest rate hikes will not only fail to put out the inflation fire, but they'll fuel the flames, as higher rates and a weaker economy widen budget deficits.

The higher the 10-year Treasury yield rises in anticipation of rate hikes, the less likely the Fed will hike. Even if it does hike 25 basis points, it'll be too little to reduce inflation. Plus, higher rates increase future budget deficits, raising both bond yields and inflation.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury is now 4.78%, the highest since 2007. The high from 2006 was 5.15%. Once that's taken out, the next target is the 1999 high of 6.44%, then the 1994 high of 8.03%. In 1994 the national debt was well under $5 trillion. Now it's over $40 trillion!

We tendered by the Bush compound in Kennebunkport. It’s on the rocks just like they helped put the U.S. economy. https://t.co/npSY9M3183

For anyone who still thinks Euro Pacific Bank or I actually did something wrong to merit a forced shutdown and receivership, watch this video and then go through all the FOIA evidence on the 9fraud website. https://t.co/sXpAAw6F1O

I bought a replacement part for my hyperbaric oxygen chamber for $283. FedEx billed me separately $28.30 for the tariffs and $17.50 to process the tariff payment. So in total, Trump's tariffs forced me to pay an extra 16.2% to import the item. The foreign producer paid nothing.

50 months ago, when Puerto Rican banking regulators put my totally solvent bank into receivership, every customer could have withdrawn 100% of their deposits. But due to rampant corruption, only a tiny fraction have been repaid. Never open an offshore bank account in Puerto Rico.

It's been 50 months since my totally solvent bank was illegally seized by corrupt Puerto Rican regulators working in conspiracy with corrupt IRS agents. Customers still waiting for their money, were sacrificed as a PR stunt to turn a failed J5 Investigation into a fake success.

The Bond Buybacks Just Doubled... And Now There's a Military Option https://t.co/GD1Xj2FDqJ

My latest podcast explains the dynamics of the boom and bust the Fed created in the boat market and how used boat prices are sinking as rising interest rates, diesel, insurance, slip & spare parts prices left borrowers underwater, causing loan defaults and industry bankruptcies.

The Bond Buybacks Just Doubled... And Now There's a Military Option New Episode. https://t.co/S6hf208Krp

Markets are reacting to Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech. But how does that speech change anything? Warsh has been talking tough about fighting inflation since before his confirmation, yet has repeatedly failed to hike rates, and continues to expand M2 and the balance sheet.

https://t.co/63bK15Bkh0

Gold traders are once again being fooled by the Kevin Warsh show. His "hawkish" talk has raised expectations of a Sept. rate hike the Fed likely has no intention of delivering. Also, Trump's failure to criticize Warsh is a scripted part of the same show to feign Fed independence.

Warsh claimed that he holds an unorthodox view that money matters to monetary policy. Not only does it matter, but when it comes to inflation it’s all that matters, as it’s the money supply that gets inflated to fund government deficit spending. That’s what causes prices to rise.

Warsh admitted 65 months of high inflation are the Fed’s fault, yet failed to acknowledge the Govt.'s shared responsibility. Despite tough talk on inflation, his failure to mention the soaring national debt or Treasury's Operation Twist shows he won't do anything to rein it in.

The Chicago PMI unexpectedly collapsed to 47.1 in August from 57.6 in July. Analysts had expected a rise to 59. This is the lowest reading since December 2025, but more significantly the biggest downside surprise since February 2015. The economy is far weaker than most believe.