Peter Schiff

The August headline CPI came out exactly as expected, up 0.4% on the month and 3.4% YoY. However, the monthly core rose by 0.3%, above the 0.2% expected, but the 2.4% YoY rise matched expectations. If the Fed doesn't hike, it's more proof that 2% inflation is a lie, not a target.

Trump's next book should be titled "The Art of the Lie."

Trump claims he's made America so much money that the government can afford to pay every adult American a $5,000 "dividend." But during the 20 months he's been in office, our national debt has grown by almost $4 trillion. How do you declare a dividend when you've lost that much?

Treasury yields continue to rise overnight, with the 10-year yield now 4.97% and the 30-year 5.38%. Markets still seem complacent, as most regard 5% on the 10-year as a ceiling. Instead, it will likely be a launching pad, sending yields soaring to levels not seen since the 1990s.

Trump bragged that more Americans are working now than ever before. But that's usually the case under every president as there are more Americans. Relative to our larger population, however, fewer Americans are working now than ever before. Plus, many who are have multiple jobs.

The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.96%, a 19-year high. But the big difference between now and then, other than the huge increase in the amount of debt we have to service, is that 19 years ago yields were still falling from a peak near 16%. Now they're rising from lows under 1%.

No matter what your title is in the Trump administration, your job is the same: flatter Trump. Talk about how great Trump is, how much he's accomplished, how strong the economy is, etc. Trump also tells everyone he's the greatest and that everything he's done is the greatest.

August producer prices rose 0.4%, exactly as expected, but YoY they rose 5.4%. Not only was that slightly more than expected, but it's significantly higher than the 4.7% YoY rise the prior month. Inflation is headed in the wrong direction, and the Fed is way behind the curve.

Yesterday Trump claimed that the price of just about everything is coming way down. In reality, the price of just about everything is going up. In particular, oil is now above $100, and the price the Treasury pays to borrow money is now 4.9% for ten years and 5.34% for thirty.

Even though bond investors know that, even in the unlikely event Republicans retain control of the House, Trump’s promise to borrow over $1 trillion more to buy votes won't be kept, the promise itself is so reckless that they’re dumping Treasuries, sending yields to new highs.

Making his promise even worse, Trump referred to his $5,000 bribes as "dividends," as if his policies had been so successful that the U.S. now has surpluses to share. Instead, his reckless policies have produced massive deficits. Trump needs to send Americans bills, not checks.

Trump's promise to give every adult American $5,000 if Republicans sweep the midterms is an example of why our Founding Fathers gave us a republic. They regarded democracy as a threat to liberty and prosperity precisely because politicians could use the public purse to buy votes.

Today Trump told what might have been his biggest lie yet, and that's no small feat. He claimed the last two years have been the greatest, most financially successful two years in the history of the presidency. I guess it wasn't a lie if he was speaking only about his own family.

Today Trump tried to buy the midterms by offering all voters a $5,000 bribe in exchange for their votes, provided they spend the cash in the U.S. Since the Fed will have to print the money, the result would be massive inflation, well in excess of anything experienced under Biden. The craziest part is that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent actually clapped following this ridiculous promise.

I asked ChatGPT Pro to review all the available evidence regarding the shutdown of my bank and come to its own conclusion with respect to what I have alleged happened versus the official narrative. Below is its assessment, word for word. My current reconstruction If I had to reconstruct what most likely happened from the evidence now available, I would put it this way: Operation Atlantis started with a genuine suspicion that EPB might be facilitating offshore tax evasion and money laundering. Authorities investigated aggressively. They apparently failed to develop evidence establishing that the bank itself or its management knowingly faci…

Based on Trump's latest lie that the Iran war will end immediately after the midterm elections, we now know that, at a minimum, there's bascially no chance that the war ends prior to the election either. That should put even more upward pressure on oil prices and interest rates.

Trump's latest lie is that the war will end immediately after the elections. The spin is that Iran is only holding out to influence the outcome of the election. It's a very convenient take, as it lets Republicans off the hook, assuming voters are dumb enough to buy the excuse.

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If you think federal budget deficits are high now, wait until after the midterms, when the Democrats control both houses of Congress. They'll pass massive spending bills that Trump will have no choice but to sign, given the leverage Democrats will have to investigate his grifts.

Despite tripling its longer-term Treasury buyback, yields are spiking to new highs. The yield on the 10-year is 4.84% and the yield on the 30-year is 5.3%. Gold's $60 gain has been cut in half, but if traders understood what this means, gold would have added to its earlier gains.

Oil is over $95 per barrel, despite the fact that the Trump administration has been rapidly draining the SPR to keep oil prices suppressed prior to the midterms. Imagine how much higher oil prices will be by the general election in 2028, if the SPR has been empty for over a year. WTI is over $96 now. Brent is over $101.

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China is the clear winner of Trump's trade war. While his tariffs succeeded in reducing the U.S. merchandise trade deficit with China, our overall goods trade deficit has barely improved, despite Americans paying higher prices. Meanwhile, China's overall goods surplus has soared.

The nickel and copper in modern nickels are now worth 7.76 cents, 55% more than the cost of buying nickels from the bank at face value. The U.S. government stopped making pennies last year. Soon it may stop making nickels too. Buy yours while you can. Much better than Treasuries.

Despite copper trading at a record high priced in dollars, priced in gold it's actually cheap. For the copper-to-gold ratio to get back to its historical average, copper must rise 60% to over $11 per pound. But gold won't stay at $4,400, so copper's rise could be much greater.

With copper at $6.85 per pound, the melt value of a pre-1982 penny is 4.46 cents. Even modern pennies, made mostly of zinc, have a current melt value of 1.07 cents. Pennies are a much better investment than Treasuries. They're not only risk-free, but the upside potential is huge.

When it comes to industrial commodities, oil may get all the headlines, but check out copper. Today it's trading at a new record high, above $6.83 per pound, up nearly 60% since Trump took office. This does not jibe with the Fed's view that inflation is headed back down to 2%.

President Trump and members of his administration routinely tell obvious lies when they speak about the U.S. economy. As a result of their lost credibility, you can't believe anything they say when they speak about Iran or other issues, even though those lies may not be obvious.

Happy Labor Day. If you work for a small business, as you enjoy a paid day off, consider that no one labors harder than your boss. Without the entrepreneur taking risks, your job wouldn't exist. Employees get paid no matter what. Employers only get paid if their risks pay off.

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