Nouriel Roubini

Tariffs. Trade wars. AI disruptions. Inflation.

These forces are redefining your business strategy and long-term viability. Join me and @heidimesser at @collectivei Forecast today Tuesday on Zoom. Live Q&A. https://t.co/szfBZCojoR.

But with China it will be a different game of chicken as China will not let itself be bullied that way and play that make pretend Kabuki theater show. Xi/China has too much pride and has mastered Tzu’s Art of War that is more more strategic and long-term oriented than Trump’s narrow-minded Art of the Deal. So things will get rougher in the US China relationship in the years ahead. A disorderly decoupling and escalation is still more likely than an orderly Grand Bargain that just de-risks the mutual relationship in key critical tech-related sectors and allows for a managed strategic competition…🇺🇸🔥🇨🇳. This is the year of Snake 🐍🐉 in the…

US is also 26% of global GDP . So comparing the 30% US share of global consumption with the US share of global population (4%) is nonsense and is like comparing apples and oranges. The main reason the US share of global consumption is so high is that it has also has the largest global share of GDP, as simple as that as opposed to that long list of mostly irrelevant favors. The US share of global consumption is slightly higher than its share of GDP is because we run a current/trade account deficits mostly driven not by higher investment rates but lower private and public savings rates than most countries. Our especially large fiscal deficit - …

The new OpenAi o3 reasoning model is mind blowing. DeepSeek could sort of compete with o1-mini but not necessarily o1-pro but the new o3 is well ahead - in terms of analytical capabilities and deep hard science problem solving - than anything DeepSeek can currently do. And inference rather than training will be where most of the compute time takes (30 minutes to write a complex economic model paper). So only hyperscalers - rather than the DeepSeeks pretending to require little compute time - will be able to manage the onslaught of data (mostly proprietary and synthetic) and the inference compute demands that are needed in this brave new world…

As I clearly wrote and predicted late last year market discipline would punish swiftly and sharply Trump’s policies that - like high tariffs - cause higher inflation and lower growth. Indeed, both bond and stock vigilantes woke up over the weekend as Trump unleashed high tariff ls against Canada, Mexico and China: stock futures are sharply down (-2.5% for the Nasdaq) while initially long rates rose; the slight retracing in bond yield on Sunday is driven by a safe haven bid as stocks are crashing. But over time tariffs that increase inflation will lead to higher yields as inflation and its expectations rise unless the tariff shock slows down g…

My Bloomberg TV this morning on AI, Deep Seek and markets. Roubini: US to Set Rules of Global Technological Order https://t.co/i7NEeeaVV2 https://t.co/fqsb3bQVjv

Interesting if controversial thread on US vs Chinese exceptionalism…

It is “moderate” if it is likely a tool to “escalate to de-escalate”. Trade deals with US trade partners can be reached before 8/12 months and thus those tariff increases can be reversed or significantly reduced. Bessent worries about the market, inflation and growth impact of high front-loaded tariffs. So slow tariffs phase-in plus stopping and reversing tariffs when a deal is reached - on trade or other US geopolitical goals such as higher defense spending by allies - gives to the US bargaining leverage and reduces the short term economic and market impact. Not to justify what Bessent wants to do but trying to explain the logic of it. His p…

In my modest opinion the DeepSeek surprise/shock is - counterintuitively - over time bullish for US and global stocks as it is another positive global aggregate supply shock that increases US/global potential growth and makes exponential AI even more exponential! So the short term market reaction is excessive, even for capex-heavy Mag-7. Hyperscalers in the US will benefit from this innovation - that is open source - as they can adopt it and develop LLM and other models with less GPU compute power. Even NVDIA will benefit over time as this positive supply shock will increase massively demand for AI compute and applications of all sorts as po…

Probably not …

Honored to be in this group of influential economists. As policy, political and geopolitical uncertainties will increase in 2025 it will be important to make sense of this unstable and changing world and global economy

@SteveMiran is a most excellent choice as the nominee for Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. Steve is a very talented and innovative economist who approaches problems from fresh angles and from the perspective of a practitioner—someone who is primarily interested in policy making and investing. Our work together on Treasury issuance required rethinking how the consolidated Fed-Treasury balance sheet affects markets and the economy.

Most excellent choice of @SteveMiran as the new Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers!

Trump's America must deepen ties with Asian allies to counter China. In new era, U.S. should reinforce economic alliances with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. by @Nouriel Roubini https://t.co/4997OSBkM9 via @NikkeiAsia

https://t.co/AJOMGg92pI Excited to announce the launch of the Atlas America Fund on the US Nasdaq (ticker USAF), a technology-driven, real asset-backed US Treasuries alternative. Built to provide greater stability, inflation-protection, and capital preservation in today’s volatile economy. For Fund disclosure, please click on link below #RealAssets #ETFs #USAF

Article on Bloomberg on the launch today of our new Atlas America Fund ETF https://t.co/auQDEEVNv0

Israel and Iran Are Likely to Escalate by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/b7uaMhheYz Regardless of whether one agrees with Israeli political and military leaders' assessment of the threat posed by Iran, a further escalation of the conflict between the two countries is now highly likely. Policymakers and financial risk managers may be hoping for the best, but they should be preparing for the worst.

Speaking on the world economic outlook at the @Ambrosetti_ Forum in Villa d’Este