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It is “moderate” if it is likely a tool to “escalate to de-escalate”. Trade deals with US trade partners can be reached before 8/12 months and thus those tariff increases can be reversed or significantly reduced. Bessent worries about the market, inflation and growth impact of high front-loaded tariffs. So slow tariffs phase-in plus stopping and reversing tariffs when a deal is reached - on trade or other US geopolitical goals such as higher defense spending by allies - gives to the US bargaining leverage and reduces the short term economic and market impact. Not to justify what Bessent wants to do but trying to explain the logic of it. His problem will be to sell this “moderate” deal to Trump. His argument will be that doing otherwise will spike inflation and lead to harsh market discipline as bond vigilantes will wake up and spike long rates as well as crash the stock market . And since Trump cares about bond yields and stock prices he may get convinced even if trade hawks such as Navarro may argue otherwise and push for dangerous massive front-loaded tariffs. So indeed Bessent is very moderate in relative terms compared to many trade hawks within the Trump camp including the Prez.

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If the "moderate" position in the new Trump White House is a 20% tariff hike phased in over 8ms (a 2.5% hike a month), I wonder what the extreme position is ... https://t.co/gKP5hKpXwO

Brad_Setser ↗
Library as of 2026-10-22