Unable to win his foolish war against Iran, Donald Trump blames its consequences on Ukraine and uses the lie to justify ending sanctions against Russia, thereby extending that war as well. His diesel deal with the Kremlin is less about lowering gas prices for Americans and more about submitting to Vladimir Putin.
TORONTO—Earlier this year, when I first described the guiding principle of Donald Trump’s foreign policy as superpower suicide, it was already obvious that the US President’s war of whimsy against Iran was a strategic catastrophe. Five months on, this failure is all the more glaring. Worse, it has provided Trump with another pretext…
The US Department of “War” has recently begun attacking effective altruism, a movement that aims to save lives, reduce suffering, and prevent future catastrophes. Why would the Trump administration, which with great fanfare created a Department of Government Efficiency, now oppose being effective?
MELBOURNE—“Americanism, not effective altruism.” That’s a new slogan launched on X by the US Department of “War,” the words running across an image of President Donald Trump saluting. Above the image, the post reads: “The United States will continue to be AI DOMINANT!”
I initially thought it must be satire. Doesn’t the Defense Department have more…
In his new memoir, Francis Fukuyama attempts to redeem his thesis about the end of history. But Peter Thiel’s ongoing quest to escape government oversight and wrest control of the future from democratic majorities makes a mockery of his argument all over again.
NEW YORK—In the Realm of the Last Man, the title of Stanford University political scientist Francis Fukuyama’s new memoir, is an unmistakable reference to his 1992 bestseller The End of History and the Last Man. The reason he chose it, Fukuyama explained, was that people had ignored his famous book’s warning that “democracy could break down in the future because of some of the intrins…
When, in the name of moderation, centrists brand every sensible alternative to severe austerity as “nonsense,” they leave voters only one electable rebellion on offer, and the far right is happy to supply it. That is what is happening in France today.
ATHENS—The sorry state of France’s public schools, which sparked angry demonstrations across the country, was a symptom of chronic austerity. But that did not stop the sirens of deeper austerity from rehearsing their song. Emmanuel Moulin, the governor of France’s central bank, is calling for large budget cuts to avert the “risk of being gradually strangled by rising interest rates.” If that ha…
Although the public’s distrust of Big Tech is understandable, given past experience, that is not a reason to starve AI models of the information and data they will need to be useful. If serving the public interest is the goal, everyone relying on the technology’s output has a duty to provide high-quality input.
NEW YORK—Who wants ignorant AI? Wrong AI? Stupid AI? If privacy and copyright advocates, regulators, and crusaders against the technology succeed in cutting off or poisoning AI’s sources of reliable data and authoritative information, won’t bad AI be the result?
My question is an admitted provocation, so we may consider what responsi…
The current stalemate between India and Pakistan should be viewed not as a pause between rounds of negotiation, but rather as part of a deliberate Indian strategy of disengagement. India will return to the negotiating table only after Pakistan dismantles, comprehensively and verifiably, its state-supported terrorist networks.
NEW DELHI—For decades, South Asia was locked in a perpetual cycle of conflict management: brief military clashes between India and Pakistan would be followed by de-escalation and the resumption of formal peace talks, which eventually gave way to another bout of conflict. But this pattern has now been broken. No high-lev…
When Russia replaced the Soviet Union as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council in 1991, it did not even attempt to follow the process outlined in the UN Charter. Now that Russia’s usurpation of the USSR’s seat has enabled it to wage a war of aggression, the dubious legal status of its position must be revisited.
KYIV—“We the peoples of the United Nations determined to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.” So begins the UN Charter. Yet Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is well into its fourth year, confirming just how far the UN has strayed from its foundational promise.
The problem is not simply …
With the global economy having weathered major trade and energy shocks over the past two years, growth should improve in 2027, and inflation should fall. Although various political and policy-driven risks could change the outlook, they remain less likely than the relatively benign baseline scenario.
NEW YORK—Despite the rising risks, uncertainties, and large negative supply shocks of the last two years, stock markets and the overall global economy have held up quite well. Following the shock of US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” (April 2) tariffs in 2025 came this year’s Iran War, which caused the largest energy shock since the oil…
While expectations for the summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping were low, it was disappointing to watch them prioritize pageantry over substance. Trump’s cringe-worthy declarations of heartfelt admiration for Xi reflect his twisted sense that the trappings of power are power itself.
NEW HAVEN—Long on ceremony but short on substance, the eagerly anticipated summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was a disappointment. Perhaps not a major disappointment, as expectations were generally low, and as some talk is certainly better than no talk. But on the major issues of trade, …
My new oped: Where Will the Global Bond Rout Hit Growth and Equities? by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/nVPajXdlP2
In the US, the recent rise in bond yields is largely driven by structural factors like the end of the post-2008 Great Stagnation, higher potential growth from tech-industry investments, and greater private-sector demand for credit. Higher yields are more worrisome for advanced economies that are stagnating and innovating less.
News from Shitcoins Land : Bitcoin’s price is now lower than its 2021 fall peak. So in the last five years the return to Bitcoin has been negative. And 90% of Bitcoin holders bought at a price higher than the current level. So all these shitcoiner suckers have lost their shirt . And losses are much higher in the other top 10 crypto-craps, let alone in 100s of lesser shitcoins that are down down 95% from their peak or worth 0! And even among meme-coins, Fart Coin - down 95% from peak - has done better than crappy Trump coin and Melania coin that have fallen even more. So Trump got to shaft his MAGA meme-loving base too! 🤑🤮💩💩💩🤑🤮
Four Scenarios for the Iran War by Nouriel Roubini
After failing to clinch a decisive victory against Iran, US President Donald Trump is now facing deteriorating macroeconomic conditions ahead of November's midterm elections. With his options limited, he has been left to choose between wishful thinking and a high-risk re-escalation of hostilities.
@ProSyn https://t.co/uyJsfbb0jc
Iran’s Ayatollahs Attack the Idea of the U.A.E.
They hate seeing an open, resilient economy flourish in one of the world’s most contested regions.
https://t.co/8UHgwE39t7
My new op-ed: Kevin Warsh Is in for a Rude Awakening by Nouriel Roubini @ProSyn https://t.co/ecLToTAC4z
For years, Kevin Warsh, Donald Trump’s nominee to serve as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve, has been staking out policy positions that would almost certainly backfire if put into practice. Fortunately, market conditions and the rest of the central bank's board will still have a say in monetary policymaking.
Here is below the full text of my op-ed “Iran Is Headed Towards Regime Collapse” that I wrote last June after the 12 Days war with Iran:
https://t.co/h82NaApkqR
Iran Is Headed Toward Regime Collapse.
Radical forces in the Middle East, many funded by and acting as proxies of Iran, have destabilized the region for decades. Regime collapse in Iran following the US bombardment of the country’s nuclear facilities, it must now be hoped, will benefit the entire region.
NEW YORK – Last November, I predicted that Israel was likely to attack Iran’s nuclear and other military facilities, even go so far as to eliminate the “regime’s top military and po…
This is the oped I wrote in November 2024 before the US elections . Full text in the link below
https://t.co/9ttItyqok1
ISRAEL AND IRAN ARE LIKELY TO ESCALATE
Regardless of whether one agrees with Israeli political and military leaders’ assessment of the threat posed by Iran, a further escalation of the conflict between the two countries is now highly likely. Policymakers and financial risk managers may be hoping for the best, but they should be preparing for the worst.
Tech Trumps Trump’s Temper Tantrums Too!
I was on Bloomberg TV this morning.
Link below to my interview.
Main highlights are:
- US potential growth at 4% by 2030 given a dozen technologies of the future where US and China lead and all other are behind
- Warsh in wrong in claiming that lower inflation from AI justifies a lower Fed Funds rate as higher growth leads to higher real short and long rates
- Tech Trumps Tariffs
- Tech Trumps Trump’s Temper Tantrums Too as tech is first order and Stagflationary policies are second order and constrained by tight market discipline and bond/markets vigilantes
- Growth at 6% by 2040 and 10% by 2050 but a…
First, you lose in a matter of weeks 50%% to 99% - depending on which shitcoin you were duped to invest in - and then they don’t even allow you to withdraw the remaining crumbs of your investments. Standard operating procedure in crypto shitcoin land.
Susquehanna-backed crypto lender BlockFills halts client withdrawals
Move comes during period of sustained volatility in digital asset markets
https://t.co/DqThoPqvBd via @ft
@LowBeta : Regular banks are chartered, regulated , supervised with capital buffers and access to deposit insurance (de facto above any de jure FDIC limit), proper rigorous AML/KYC have access to lender of last resort support of Fed and, if systemically important , even more layers of backstop of every piece of their balance sheet on the asset and Lia city side (see GFC experience) . While stablecoins of “Genius” act have none of that and are a worse repeat of 19th century free banking. And we do all remember how that free banking episode ended. Run, total financial crash, financial crisis and a severe recession. Caveat Emptor. History doesn’…
Is Kevin Warsh argument that AI justifies a lower equilibrium Fed Funds rate correct? Not necessarily. Here is why…
The equilibrium/neutral nominal Fed Funds rate - or r-star - is the sum of the equilibrium/neutral real r-star and the equilibrium/target expected inflation rate.
A positive aggregate supply shock - like the AI/tech revolution - has two opposite effects on the nominal r-star : it increases it as real potential GDP growth is higher and there is a positive correlation between real potential growth and real equilibrium rates; and it decreases it as inflation and its expectations are sharply reduced. Thus, the net impact on the nom…
@mdudas : “I would estimate the rate of shady / sketchy / unethical people in crypto is at least 5x that in traditional tech, where i worked for decades”
Trump coin (-95%) and Melania coin (-99%) do even worse than Fartcoin and Dogecoin at the very bottom of chart. How to shaft your voters and supporters who bought these crappy coins at the peak. 🤮🤑💩💩
O Tempora, O Mores!
The Crypto Apocalypse
Out of 20k ICOs:
80% of them (16k) were a total criminal scam in the first place - steal the money and run - based on results of an academic research paper.
Another 18% of them (3.6k) went to zero and collapsed .
Of remaining 2% (400) that survived those below the top 10 have lost on average over 90% of their value since their peak .
Of the top 10 : Bitcoin is down 45% from peak, Ethereum is down 55% from peak, XRP is down 60%, Solana and Dogecoin are down 65%, Cardano is down 75%.
“Stablecoins” like Tether are now breaking the buck and trade below par. While dozen of “stablecoins” went totally bust in last decade.
M…
Speaking - as I warned in my recent column - that unstable “stablecoins” backed by risky assets can break the buck and lead to a disorderly financial panic.
https://t.co/xyQXgH9h2L